Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
129 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will extend through the forecast area today. The
front will lift north of the area tonight ahead of a strong cold
front. The cold front will move through the area late tonight.
These features will be associated with strong wind aloft and
instability. The pattern supports severe thunderstorms including
tornadoes. Also, there may be a prolonged period of thunderstorms
along the warm front this afternoon into the evening resulting
in excessive rainfall. It will be windy and dry behind the front
for Thursday and Friday.  Dry weather continues into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A significant severe weather event is still expected in the
forecast area. The threats are damaging wind including
tornadoes, hail, and excessive rainfall.

Regional radars indicating showers and strong thunderstorms
developing across the region, mainly along a retreating warm
front. South of this front, local analysis shows areas across
the central/southern Midlands, along with the the CSRA, are
becoming unstable. With those areas now experiencing some breaks
in the clouds, LI values now going negative, and CAPE values
are on the increase. Strong shortwave approaching the region
this afternoon will move over this highly unstable airmass,
causing initialization of strong to severe storms through the
afternoon and evening. High amount of shear from 0-6km across
the region, with strong 50+ knot low-level jet moving in, and
strong veering of winds and speed shear supporting rotating
updrafts. Expect to see to potential for long lived supercell
storms, large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes given
the steep mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear. High CAPE
in the hail growth area and wet bulb zero heights around 10,000
feet support possible damaging hail.

On top of the severe threat, there will also be a threat of
flash flooding. Models indicating general rainfall amounts of
between 1 to 2 inches. The SREF mean was around 1 inch with the
maximum 2.5 inches. PW values are forecast over 1.7 of an inch
and this will support high rainfall rates and there may be
concentrated prolonged thunderstorms near the warm front which
may extend through the cities of Augusta and Columbia as
depicted by the WPC guidance. Confidence is limited because of
the inconsistency of the high- resolution models, but believe
there is enough of a threat to continue with a flash flood watch
in the area extending from Augusta to Columbia to Sumter.

Much of this activity will last into the early portions of the
overnight hours, at least until the main cold front moves into
the area sometime after Midnight. Rain activity will be moving
east of the area by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front moves east of the forecast area Thursday morning,
with drier air moving in behind the front. The main weather
issue on both Thursday and Friday will be associated with the
strong winds due to the tight pressure gradient between deep low
pressure moving from the Lower Great Lakes to New England and
ridging moving into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The
models suggest gusts near 40 mph. Will be issuing a wind
advisory for much of Thursday. An additional Lake Wind Advisory
may be required for Friday since winds will once again be strong
and gusty, however not quite as strong as Thursday.

Temperatures quite a bit cooler on both days, with highs in the
60s. Lows Thursday night in the 40s. Lows Friday may fall into
the 30s, and depending on if the winds can diminish enough,
frost may be possible late Friday Night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridge will be near the area Saturday into Saturday night and
expect to have strong net radiational cooling. The longer
range models indicate it will be cold again Saturday night with
lows in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Frost may occur mainly in
the normally colder locations.

The deep trough should shift offshore with upstream ridging becoming
dominate over the weekend into early next week. Expect moderating
temperatures and continued dry weather for the remainder of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop across the
area and conditions will continue to deteriorate. Expect
MVFR/IFR conditions. Severe storms are also likely with large
hail and strong outflow winds in excess of 50 kts. Low
confidence in timing of convective activity at individual taf
sights, but have mention of thunder in all TAFs through this
evening. Cold front will cross between 06Z and 12Z and west
winds will increase to around 20 kts by Thursday morning.
Ceilings will lift behind front and VFR conditions will return.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions Thursday and Friday,
but breezy, to possibly windy at times.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ040-
     063>065.
SC...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ018-
     025>028-030-031.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
243 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

GAZ040-063>065-SCZ018-025>028-030-031-061845-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-McCormick-Edgefield-Saluda-
Lexington-Richland-Aiken-Sumter-
243 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 125 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
THURSDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GAZ077-SCZ020>022-029-035>038-041-061845-
Burke-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Lee-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-
Clarendon-Bamberg-
243 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 125 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
THURSDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SCZ015-016-061845-
Lancaster-Chesterfield-
243 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
THURSDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
440 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW HOLLY HILL        33.33N 80.45W
04/05/2017  E1.06 INCH       ORANGEBURG         SC   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION SC-OR-5 REPORTED 1.06
            INCHES WITHIN 1 HR. MINOR FLOODING.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
442 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSE COLUMBIA          33.99N 81.03W
04/05/2017                   RICHLAND           SC   OTHER FEDERAL

            USGS GAGE ROCKY BRANCH CREEK AT WHALEY/ AND
            MAIN STREET CRESTED AT 11:47 FEET. FLOOD
            STAGE IS 7.2 FEET.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
443 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNW COLUMBIA          34.03N 81.04W
04/05/2017                   RICHLAND           SC   OTHER FEDERAL

            USGS GAGE ALONG SMITH BRANCH CREEK AT NORTH
            MAIN STREET NEAR EARLEWOOD PARK CRESTED AT
            10.29 FEET. FLOOD STAGE IS 9 FEET.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
444 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW HOLLY HILL        33.33N 80.45W
04/05/2017  E1.06 INCH       ORANGEBURG         SC   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION SC-OR-5 REPORTED 1.06
            INCHES WITHIN 1 HR. MINOR FLOODING.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
506 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GILBERT                 33.93N 81.39W
04/05/2017                   LEXINGTON          SC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED WITH IMAGES
            SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE TO A MOBILE HOME IN
            GILBERT. RADAR INDICATED A POSSIBLE TORNADO
            IN THE AREA.

&&

DA

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