Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
723 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaching from the north will slowly cross the
forecast area overnight. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected head of the front. Very warm temperatures this
afternoon will be followed by cooler temperatures behind the
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Regional radars currently showing strong thunderstorms in the
upstate of both SC and GA this evening. This activity has been
relatively stationary, with a the storms having difficulty
pushing eastward into a capping inversion currently over central
portions of SC. This inversion will weaken as the evening
progresses, and the activity is expected to eventually begin
tracking eastward. This will be in advance of a MCS that is
moving into eastern TN this evening, and this MCS is expected to
rapidly push eastward across northern GA and into
northern/central SC, and eastern GS by midnight. As this MCS
catches up with the current convection across the upstate,
expect to see the entire complex push east/southeastward through
much of the cwa. This continues to be supported by the latest
hrrr guidance. The main threats will be damaging winds, large
hail, and even some heavy rainfall in the slower moving,
possible training, storms.

The high-resolution models have trended slower with the timing.
The latest HRRR is still indicating some isolated to scattered
convection possible between 8 pm and 11 pm, the the most
widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage by midnight. The
more intense convection shifts east of the area by 200 am, with
mainly some stratiform rainfall in its wake.

The front should shift south of the area after 400 am. There may
be lingering showers in the area. Followed the guidance consensus
for the temperature forecast overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will be moving south of the area Wednesday
morning with high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes
region building in behind it. Clouds are expected to linger,
but precipitation should be south of the area so have lowered
pops. Highs on Wednesday are forecast in the middle 60s to lower
70s. The center of high pressure will move into the Delmarva
region on Thursday and ridge into the forecast area from the
northeast. Models have trended drier with pops on Thursday.
Extensive cloud cover should result in temperatures well below
normal on Thursday, but confidence low regarding exactly how low
temperatures will be given model differences.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper ridge will be centered over the southeastern US on
Friday and will push off the coast on Saturday as an upper
trough over the Plains lifts northeastward. Surface high
pressure will be off the coast on Friday and will continue to
ridge into the area from the northeast with dry weather
expected. Temperatures will rebound on Friday back into the
middle 60s to lower 70s under the influence of the ridge. A low
pressure system over the southern Plains will shift northeastward
toward the southern Great Lakes region on Saturday and bring a
front into the area on Sunday. The frontal boundary will linger
in the area on Monday and remain near the area on Tuesday.
Temperatures over the weekend and into Tuesday above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue for the next couple hours, but then
MVFR ceilings are likely as strong thunderstorms move into the
area. There will also be periods of IFR conditions in heavy rain,
but too difficult to time. Storms could develop over KAGS and
KDNL as early as 01Z. Upstream convection is expected to move
over CAE and CUB around 02Z, and then OGB. Timing is based on
HRRR, but these storms have so far been moving very slowly, and
arrival could actually be later. Strong heating ahead of the
front and very cold air aloft support the potential for damaging
wind and large hail with any thunderstorms.

There should be a diminished threat of severe weather after 05Z
because of previous convection and nocturnal cooling. The front
should shift south of the area after 09Z, and skies should
clear by 22/21Z.

Winds will generally be 5 to 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts, SW
then veering NW, and the NE behind the front.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There may be restrictions mainly in
the early morning hours during the outlook period associated
with a moist onshore flow.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
841 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-230045-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-McCormick-Newberry-
Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-Aiken-
Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
841 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 77 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

SCZ015-016-230045-
Lancaster-Chesterfield-
841 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms tonight could possibly contain strong winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
814 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

SCZ018-220045-
McCormick-
814 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MCCORMICK
COUNTIES...

At 814 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Abbeville to Bobby
Brown State Park. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
McCormick, Lake Strom Thurmond, Bobby Brown State Park, Plum Branch,
Willington and Mount Carmel.

LAT...LON 3407 8253 3407 8251 3408 8248 3406 8245
      3406 8233 3397 8230 3402 8225 3398 8219
      3384 8226 3396 8257 3398 8258 3399 8257
      3402 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 281DEG 30KT 3423 8247 3399 8258

fwa

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
858 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

GAZ040-064-SCZ018-020-021-025-026-220145-
Lincoln-Columbia-Fairfield-Newberry-McCormick-Saluda-Edgefield-
858 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
COLUMBIA...LINCOLN...FAIRFIELD...NEWBERRY...
EDGEFIELD...SALUDA...AND MCCORMICK COUNTIES...

At 853 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms, moving east at 30 mph will
move into the western Midlands and northern CSRA .

These storms have had a history of producing large hail and damaging
winds.

Locations impacted include...
Newberry, Winnsboro, Edgefield, Saluda, McCormick, and Lake
Greenwood.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for
east central Georgia...and central South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3396 8257 3407 8253 3397 8230 3396 8202
      3413 8187 3420 8194 3430 8190 3453 8164
      3445 8154 3457 8142 3454 8090 3430 8101
      3418 8118 3424 8132 3418 8140 3407 8139
      3409 8147 3377 8171 3351 8240 3398 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 289DEG 29KT 3409 8212

CJR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
930 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

GAZ063>065-077-SCZ018-025-030-220215-
Burke-Richmond-McDuffie-Columbia-Aiken-McCormick-Edgefield-
930 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
COLUMBIA...MCDUFFIE... NORTHWESTERN BURKE...RICHMOND...SOUTHWESTERN
EDGEFIELD...AIKEN AND SOUTHEASTERN MCCORMICK COUNTIES...

At 927 PM EDT, an area of strong thunderstorms were clustered 11
miles southeast of Lincolnton, or 15 miles northwest of Evans,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

Damaging winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Aiken, North Augusta, Grovetown, Evans, Thomson, Waynesboro,
Martinez, Fort Gordon, Augusta, and New Ellenton.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for
east central Georgia...and central South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3364 8261 3363 8258 3364 8258 3366 8251
      3364 8246 3370 8233 3369 8222 3370 8224
      3373 8224 3377 8200 3357 8128 3320 8176
      3316 8178 3305 8229 3323 8223 3331 8234
      3336 8255 3341 8255 3360 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 293DEG 28KT 3366 8234

CJR