Alert archive / New York / Lakeshore Flood Warnings in 2017
Lakeshore Flood Warning 2, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lakeshore flood warning at May 1, 2017, 3:45 AM EDT for 4 counties in New York. It took effect at May 2, 2017, 4:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 24 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- May 1, 2017, 3:45 AM EDT (07:45 UTC)
- In effect from
- May 2, 2017, 4:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- May 3, 2017, 4:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 24 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Cayuga County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 189 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 857 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 59 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 367 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 427 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.4
The text
As transmitted.
818 WHUS41 KBUF 010745 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 345 AM EDT MON MAY 1 2017 NYZ006-007-011545- /O.UPG.KBUF.LS.A.0002.170502T1900Z-170503T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.LS.W.0002.170502T2000Z-170503T2000Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON- 345 AM EDT MON MAY 1 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. * TIMING...FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE ISLANDS AND SHORELINE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ THOMAS
12 follow-up statements
620 WHUS41 KBUF 011531 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1131 AM EDT MON MAY 1 2017 NYZ006-007-012345- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.170502T2000Z-170503T2000Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON- 1131 AM EDT MON MAY 1 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. * TIMING...FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE ISLANDS AND SHORELINE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$
538 WHUS41 KBUF 020154 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 954 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017 NYZ006-007-021000- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.170502T2000Z-170503T2000Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON- 954 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. * TIMING...FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE ISLANDS AND SHORELINE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ HITCHCOCK
784 WHUS41 KBUF 020842 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 442 AM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 NYZ006-007-021645- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.170502T2000Z-170503T2000Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON- 442 AM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. * TIMING...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE ISLANDS AND SHORELINE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ NYZ004-005-021645- /O.NEW.KBUF.LS.A.0003.170503T0900Z-170503T2000Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 442 AM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES MAY RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION RISK IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE. * TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING MAY INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. WAVE ACTION MAY RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LAKESHORE FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. RESIDENTS ON OR NEAR THE SHORE SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY...AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS. && $$ TMA/THOMAS
747 WHUS41 KBUF 021226 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 826 AM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 NYZ006-007-022030- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.170502T2000Z-170503T2000Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON- 826 AM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. * TIMING...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE ISLANDS AND SHORELINE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ NYZ004-005-022030- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.A.0003.170503T0900Z-170503T2000Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 826 AM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES MAY RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION RISK IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE. * TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING MAY INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. WAVE ACTION MAY RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LAKESHORE FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. RESIDENTS ON OR NEAR THE SHORE SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY...AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS. && $$
897 WHUS41 KBUF 021614 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1214 PM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 NYZ006-007-030015- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.170502T2000Z-170503T2000Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON- 1214 PM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. * TIMING...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE ISLANDS AND SHORELINE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ NYZ004-005-030015- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.A.0003.170503T0900Z-170503T2000Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 1214 PM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES MAY RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION RISK IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE. * TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING MAY INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. WAVE ACTION MAY RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LAKESHORE FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. RESIDENTS ON OR NEAR THE SHORE SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY...AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS. && $$
474 WHUS41 KBUF 021814 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 214 PM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 NYZ006-007-030215- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.170502T2000Z-170503T2000Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON- 214 PM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. * TIMING...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE ISLANDS AND SHORELINE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ NYZ004-005-030215- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.A.0003.170503T0900Z-170503T2000Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 214 PM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION RISK IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE. * TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. WAVE ACTION MAY RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR LAKESHORE FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. RESIDENTS ON OR NEAR THE SHORE SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY...AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS. && $$
640 WHUS41 KBUF 021816 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 216 PM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 NYZ004-005-030230- /O.UPG.KBUF.LS.A.0003.170503T0900Z-170503T2000Z/ /O.EXB.KBUF.LS.W.0002.170503T0900Z-170503T2000Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 216 PM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION RISK IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE. * TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. WAVE ACTION MAY RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ NYZ006-007-030230- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.170502T2000Z-170503T2000Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON- 216 PM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. * TIMING...FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE ISLANDS AND SHORELINE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$
160 WHUS41 KBUF 030153 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 953 PM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 NYZ006-007-031000- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170503T2000Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON- 953 PM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE ISLANDS AND SHORELINE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ NYZ004-005-031000- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.170503T0900Z-170503T2000Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 953 PM EDT TUE MAY 2 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION RISK IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE. * TIMING...FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. WAVE ACTION MAY RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ APFFEL
031 WHUS41 KBUF 030826 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 426 AM EDT WED MAY 3 2017 NYZ006-007-031630- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170503T2000Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON- 426 AM EDT WED MAY 3 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE ISLANDS AND SHORELINE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ NYZ004-005-031630- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.170503T0900Z-170503T2000Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 426 AM EDT WED MAY 3 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION RISK IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. WAVE ACTION MAY RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ CHURCH
497 WHUS41 KBUF 031303 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 903 AM EDT WED MAY 3 2017 NYZ006-007-032000- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170503T2000Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON- 903 AM EDT WED MAY 3 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE AND IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE ISLANDS AND SHORELINE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ NYZ004-005-032000- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170503T2000Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 903 AM EDT WED MAY 3 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION RISK IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. WAVE ACTION MAY RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ RSH
883 WHUS41 KBUF 031750 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 150 PM EDT WED MAY 3 2017 NYZ007-031900- /O.CAN.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170503T2000Z/ JEFFERSON- 150 PM EDT WED MAY 3 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING THE IMPACT OF LAKESHORE FLOODING. $$ NYZ006-032000- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170503T2000Z/ OSWEGO- 150 PM EDT WED MAY 3 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...OSWEGO COUNTY. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE WEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. WAVE ACTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ NYZ004-005-032000- /O.CON.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170503T2000Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA- 150 PM EDT WED MAY 3 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * LOCATIONS...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. * LAKE SHORE FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH LAKE LEVELS... MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED FLOODING AND SHORELINE EROSION RISK IN AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...FLOODING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO HIGH LAKE LEVELS AND INCREASED WAVE ACTION. FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND IN BAYS AND INLETS. WAVE ACTION MAY RESULT IN INCREASED SHORELINE AND BEACH EROSION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING MEANS LAKESHORE FLOODING IS OCCURRING, IS IMMINENT, OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. && $$ SMITH
870 WHUS41 KBUF 032011 CFWBUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 411 PM EDT WED MAY 3 2017 NYZ004>006-032115- /O.EXP.KBUF.LS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170503T2000Z/ WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO- 411 PM EDT WED MAY 3 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED... WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. $$ APFFEL
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this lakeshore flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lakeshore flood warning went out at May 1, 1:53 AM EDT, 1 hour 52 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 1, 1:53 AM EDT, 1 hour 52 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
153 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move slowly northward across the region overnight
along with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Very warm
air will then briefly push into the area Monday before a cold front
crosses the area in the afternoon and evening. This front will produce
a line of showers and thunderstorms with the potential for damaging
winds and heavy rainfall. In the wake of the front...much cooler and
unsettled weather will then overspread the region for the rest of the
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 140 am...the surface warm front is stalled along the I-90
corridor from Buffalo to Rochester. Model guidance has slowed
with the northward progression of the front a bit, but it still
will gradually push northward overnight and through the morning
hours. Temperatures will depend heavily on the position of this
front, with 40s north of the front and 60s to the south of it.
An area elevated convection with showers and embedded
thunderstorms will move across the Eastern Lake Ontario region
through the early morning hours. Otherwise, there will just be
scattered showers across Western New York for the remainder of
the overnight period.
Expect the same basic pattern to persist through early
afternoon, with steadier rain across southern Ontario and a few
scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms clipping our region,
with plenty of dry time. There should be enough breaks in the
clouds, and certainly enough strong warm advection to allow for
moderate instability to develop by early to mid afternoon across
Western NY. Highs should reach the mid to upper 70s at the
western end of the state, and low 80s from the Genesee Valley to
Central NY with a later onset of thicker clouds and showers.
The North Country should also push into the 70s, except perhaps
right along the Saint Lawrence River.
The main concern will be severe weather potential from mid afternoon
through evening as a fairly sharp pre-frontal trough crosses the
area. Model guidance has been consistent the past few days in
developing a broken line of strong convection on this boundary.
Latest 12Z guidance is an hour or two faster, bringing the boundary
into Western NY at an ideal time to take advantage of peak heating
and instability. Strong, mainly unidirectional shear profiles and
sufficient SBCAPE support the idea seen in mesoscale model guidance
of a broken line of strong storms, with bowing segments capable of
producing wind damage. With this in mind, have added mention of
damaging winds from mid afternoon through evening as the line moves
east across the area. Storms may also produce very heavy rainfall as
PWAT rises to around 1.5 inches, but fast storm motion should
minimize any flood risk.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday and Wednesday will be rather chilly, overcast and damp by
recent weather standards, as an anomalously deep trough tracks
through southern Quebec. The broad cyclonic flow with moisture and
steep lapse rates under the upper-level trough will bring scattered
rain showers across the region Tuesday, most prevalent in the
upslope regions east of both lakes Erie and Ontario. Wednesday will
feature some diurnally driven showers again enhanced by orographic
ascent, but will be less widespread than Tuesday given departing
synoptic moisture and some heights starting to rise aloft. 850 mb
temperatures will start the day around +2C on Tuesday, while falling
below 0C Tuesday night, with -3C pool of cold air cross the region
on Wednesday morning. Combine this with ample cloud cover and
scattered rain showers, temperatures will struggle to recover at all
from the morning lows Tuesday morning. Highs will remain in the
upper 40s to low 50s both days. Temperatures Tuesday night will only
fall to the upper 30s to low 40s given the persistent wind and cloud
cover.
Speaking of winds, winds will pick up on Tuesday with cold advection
in place with and pressure rises behind the departing surface low.
The steep lapse rates and channel of PV aloft will support momentum
transfer of the 40+knot 925mb jet to the surface across the Niagara
Frontier to Rochester and along the Saint Lawrence Valley. Not all
of the 40+ knot jet will be realized at the surface, but could
promote some wind gusts reaching wind advisory criteria up to 45-50
mph. Will continue to mention this in the HWO at this point. Winds
will start to decrease Tuesday night and on Wednesday, but still
remain breezy from the west as the surface pressure rises continue
in the wake of the departing low.
On Thursday, a developing low pressure system over the southern Ohio
Valley with a departing northern stream jet streak placing us in the
right entrance region will support developing rain from south to
north across the forecast area. We will remain on the north side of
the warm front keeping temperatures cooler, with highs only in the
lower 50s again.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is very high confidence that this will be a wet and unsettled
period. In fact...our forecast area will most likely be on the
receiving end of another significant rainfall...something that we do
not need after one of the wettest April's in recorded history. The
GEFS and ECMWF based ensembles (including the operational runs) are
in strong agreement that an unusually well organized storm for early
May will track from the Tennessee Valley across our forecast area.
This system will be more typical of a mid winter storm...both in its
intensity...upper level support and overall structure. The only
difference is that temperatures will be some 5 deg c too high for a
major snowstorm. That being said...
The pending storm system will be supported by a highly amplified
pattern...again...more typical of mid winter. A very strong...full
latitude ridge will be anchored over the western states while an
anomalously deep trough (-3 STD) with an early May return interval
of once every 10 years will be found over the eastern third of the
country. Despite the impressive climatology behind this pattern...
there will initially be two distinct branches within the deep
trough. The wet storm system that will bring a substantial rainfall
to our region will be found within the southern branch...but as we
work through the weekend...very robust energy within the northern
branch will dive south across the Upper Great Lakes to phase the two
into a broad closed low that will largely reside over western
Quebec.
Digging deeper into the details of this storm system...it will
already be raining across all of our forecast area as we open this
period Thursday evening...but the most significant rain will be yet
to come. A strongly divergent upper level flow will be in place
across the Lower Great Lakes Thursday night...while even stronger
forcing aloft will be generated from a coupled H25 jet. Meanwhile in
the low levels...increasing baroclinicity in the H925-85 layer will
establish a steep surface for a 40-50kt low level jet to impinge up
on. All of this lift will be accompanied by a wealth of Atlantic
moisture that will extend back across our region from the Delmarva
Peninsula. This will boil down to a steady rain Thursday...which
could prove to be heavy at times...mainly over the western counties.
Have taken the lead and raised pops to 90 regionwide.
On Friday...there is nearly a 50/50 split between the various
ensembles as to whether the storm system will become vertically
stacked in the vcnty of Lake Erie or remain 'dynamic' in nature with
a coupled jet and continued low level baroclinicity for another 12
hours. Either way...widespread rain will be found over all of our
forecast area. The sensible difference for the public will be
whether the rain will taper off to light rain and drizzle over the
far western counties...or remain generally consistent through the
course of the day. Again...will be bold and meteorologically
consistent using 90 pops in such a scenario.
The mature storm system will track across our forecast area Friday
night. By this time...there should be the semblance of a dry slot
working across the Finger Lakes and portions of the Eastern Lake
Ontario region. This will help to limit the amount of pcpn for those
areas...but a weakening of the overall dynamics should be more of a
factor. As the system drifts over us...the vast majority of the
strong dynamics will be removed. This will only leave relatively
weak low level forcing...so am not expecting more than showers. As
this event draws closer...it may be more accurate to describe it as
light rain and/or drizzle...but that is a mute point from this
range.
On Saturday...the stacked storm sill be in the process of lifting
away to our northeast across the St Lawrence Valley. Cold advection
in the wake of the system will begin and we will be left with the
likelihood of just showers as spokes of PVA circulate across the
region from the northwest.
While a deep cyclonic flow will remain over our region for Sunday...
drying will be well underway in the mid levels. This will encourage
the shower activity to taper off from west to east during the course
of the day...which from this vantage point looks to be mainly (but
not completely) rain free.
Rainfall totals for this prolonged (roughly 72 hours) event should
range from one to two inches for basin averages...with locally over
2 inch amounts possible.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At 06Z a warm front extends along the I-90 corridor from BUF-
ROC. To the south of this, expect mainly VFR conditions with
scattered showers through daybreak. To the north there will be
moisture trapped beneath a sharp inversion, with areas of IFR or
lower conditions in cigs and fog. These conditions will improve
early this morning as the boundary lifts northward. An area of
showers with embedded thunderstorms will move across the Eastern
Lake Ontario region thorugh 08Z, impacting the ART terminal.
Expect mainly VFR conditions, with scattered showers and
possibly a thunderstorm in the 12Z to 18Z timeframe. After this,
a line of strong showers and thunderstorms is expected to move
across the region from west to east between 18Z and 00Z Tuesday.
Expect these storms to impact all TAF sites at some point, with
a 2-3 hour period of thunderstorms and potentially strong gusty
winds and heavy rains.
Conditions will improve late this afternoon, with storms
ending. Patchy MVFR clouds may linger just behind the front
early this evening, but these should generally improve to VFR
later in the evening.
Outlook...
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
Thursday and Friday...MVFR/IFR in rain.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate northeast winds will continue to diminish overnight.
Small craft headlines were extended 3 hours (til 5 am) to
account for the slower movement of the front.
A strong cold front will cross the Lower Great Lakes from west to
east from mid afternoon through mid evening, and produce a line
of thunderstorms with strong winds and higher waves.
A period of moderate to strong westerly winds will then develop
Tuesday through Wednesday on both lakes, with the next round of
Small Craft Advisory conditions.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A lake shore flood watch continues for Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday afternoon for Jefferson and Oswego counties.
Moderate to strong southwest to west winds will develop Tuesday
and Wednesday on Lake Ontario. This may result in lakeshore
flooding concerns on the east end of Lake Ontario. Some of the
most susceptible areas are the bays of Jefferson County such as
Chaumont Bay. Water levels will also likely rise higher on the
upper Saint Lawrence River in the Thousand Islands region as the
wind forces more water down the river, which can produce
flooding on some of the flood prone islands in the river.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lakeshore Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon for NYZ006-007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
LOZ042-043.
&&
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/JJR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HITCHCOCK/CHURCH/JJRHazardous weather outlook, Apr 30, 10:02 PM EDT, 5 hours 43 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1002 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 NYZ001>003-008-010>014-019>021-085-020215- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming- Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 1002 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A cold front will move east across the area Monday afternoon and evening. A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop and sweep east across the area. Some of these storms may become severe, with the primary risk being damaging winds. Gusty winds will develop Tuesday afternoon and evening, with wind gusts over 40 mph possible especially northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006-007-020215- Oswego-Jefferson- 1002 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Lakeshore Flood Watch. A cold front will move east across the area Monday afternoon and evening. A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop and sweep east across the area. Some of these storms may become severe, with the primary risk being damaging winds. Gusty winds will develop Tuesday afternoon and evening, with wind gusts over 40 mph possible especially northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ004-005-020215- Wayne-Northern Cayuga- 1002 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A cold front will move east across the area Monday afternoon and evening. A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop and sweep east across the area. Some of these storms may become severe, with the primary risk being damaging winds. Gusty winds will develop Tuesday afternoon and evening, with wind gusts over 40 mph possible especially northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Lakeshore flooding is possible late Tuesday night through Wednesday due to a combination of already high lake levels combined with strong west winds and building wave action. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-020215- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 1002 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A cold front will move east across the area Monday afternoon and evening. A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop and sweep east across the area. Some of these storms may become severe, with the primary risk being strong winds and locally higher waves. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf HITCHCOCK/JJR
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Apr 30, 9:57 PM EDT, 5 hours 48 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
957 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2017
NYZ001-010-010245-
Niagara-Northern Erie-
957 PM EDT SUN APR 30 2017
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ERIE AND
NIAGARA COUNTIES...
At 954 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Hamilton, Ontario to Long Point on
Lake Erie. This line of strong storms was moving east northeast at 50
mph. At this speed...the storms would reach the Niagara River and
Grand Island between 10:45 and 11 PM.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Niagara Falls, North Tonawanda, Clarence,
Lockport, Kenmore, Depew, Tonawanda and Amherst.
This includes Interstate 90 between exits 52 and 49.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 4340 7864 4341 7849 4292 7849 4290 7891
4293 7890 4295 7892 4296 7896 4300 7902
4306 7900 4308 7908 4311 7906 4312 7907
4315 7904 4317 7905 4325 7906 4330 7909
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 251DEG 46KT 4318 7996 4298 7985 4280 7997
RSHThe office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 8:20 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Ontario | 40 min |
| Apr 30, 9:57 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Niagara | 48 min |
| Apr 30, 10:09 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 81 min | |
| Apr 30, 10:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Erie, Niagara | 41 min |
| May 1, 6:16 AM EDT | Flood Watch | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 10 more | 13 hr |
| May 1, 2:10 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 95 min | |
| May 1, 2:20 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Chautauqua | 55 min |
| May 1, 2:40 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 65 min | |
| May 1, 2:41 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 64 min | |
| May 1, 3:00 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Erie, Niagara | 60 min |
| May 1, 3:06 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie | 54 min |
| May 1, 3:26 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 94 min | |
| May 1, 3:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Erie, Genesee, Niagara, Orleans, Wyoming | 58 min |
| May 1, 3:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus | 55 min |
| May 1, 4:16 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Orleans, Wyoming | 14 min |
| May 1, 4:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Orleans, Wyoming | 51 min |
| May 1, 4:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Allegany, Livingston | 62 min |
| May 1, 4:45 PM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Livingston and 5 more | 3 hr |
| May 1, 4:49 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 116 min | |
| May 1, 4:52 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Livingston, Monroe, Ontario, Wayne | 53 min |
| May 1, 5:18 PM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 47 hr | |
| May 1, 5:36 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Jefferson, Oswego | 54 min |
| May 1, 5:38 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 97 min | |
| May 1, 5:46 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Cayuga, Ontario, Wayne | 59 min |
| May 1, 6:09 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego | 66 min |
| May 1, 6:45 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 60 min |
Nearby
Lakeshore Flood Warnings in New York, 2017Every lakeshore flood warning in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.