Lake Effect Snow Watch 7, NWS Buffalo, NY

017 
WWUS41 KBUF 141655
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1155 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

NYZ019-020-085-150100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0007.170215T1800Z-170216T2200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
1155 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Chautauqua...Cattaraugus and southern Erie 
  counties.

* TIMING...From early Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday 
  afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow potentially accumulating 6 to 12 inches in
the most persistent lake snows.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...As low as a half mile at times.

* IMPACTS...Snow and blowing snow will produce difficult driving 
  conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...Low to medium.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lake Effect Snow Watch means that narrow bands of locally heavy
lake effect snow are possible across the region...along with
rapid changes in road and visibility conditions that can have a
significant impact on travel.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-150100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0007.170216T0000Z-170217T1000Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
1155 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...Wayne...northern Cayuga...and Oswego counties.

* TIMING...From early Wednesday evening through late Thursday 
  night.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow potentially accumulating 6 to 12 inches in
  the most persistent lake snows.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...As low as a half mile at times.

* IMPACTS...Snow and blowing snow will produce difficult driving 
  conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...Low.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lake Effect Snow Watch means that narrow bands of locally heavy
lake effect snow are possible across the region...along with
rapid changes in road and visibility conditions that can have a
significant impact on travel.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

&&

$$

Church

142 
WWUS41 KBUF 142000
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
300 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

NYZ004>006-150400-
/O.EXT.KBUF.LE.A.0007.170215T1800Z-170217T1000Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
300 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...Wayne...northern Cayuga...and Oswego counties.

* TIMING...From early Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday 
  night.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow potentially accumulating 5 to 10 inches in
  the most persistent lake snows.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...As low as a half mile at times.

* IMPACTS...Snow and blowing snow will produce difficult driving 
  conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...Low.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lake Effect Snow Watch means that narrow bands of locally heavy
lake effect snow are possible across the region...along with
rapid changes in road and visibility conditions that can have a
significant impact on travel.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

&&

$$

NYZ019-020-085-150400-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0007.170215T1800Z-170216T2200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
300 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Chautauqua...Cattaraugus and southern Erie 
  counties.

* TIMING...From early Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday 
  afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow potentially accumulating 5 to 10 inches in
  the most persistent lake snows. 

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...As low as a half mile at times.

* IMPACTS...Snow and blowing snow will produce difficult driving 
  conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...Low to medium.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lake Effect Snow Watch means that narrow bands of locally heavy
lake effect snow are possible across the region...along with
rapid changes in road and visibility conditions that can have a
significant impact on travel.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

&&

$$

Church

086 
WWUS41 KBUF 150145
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
845 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

NYZ019-020-085-150945-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0007.170215T1800Z-170216T2200Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
845 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...Chautauqua...Cattaraugus and southern Erie 
  counties.

* TIMING...From early Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday 
  afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow potentially accumulating 7 to 13 inches in
  the most persistent lake snows.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph producing
  blowing and drifting snow.

* VISIBILITIES...Less than a quarter mile at times.

* IMPACTS...Snow and blowing snow will produce difficult driving 
  conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...Medium.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lake Effect Snow Watch means that narrow bands of locally heavy
lake effect snow are possible across the region...along with
rapid changes in road and visibility conditions that can have a
significant impact on travel.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

&&

$$

NYZ004>006-150945-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.A.0007.170215T1800Z-170217T1000Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
845 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...Wayne...northern Cayuga...and Oswego counties.

* TIMING...From early Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday 
  night.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow potentially accumulating 6 to 10 inches in
  the most persistent lake snows.

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph producing
  blowing and drifting snow.

* VISIBILITIES...Less than a quarter mile at times.

* IMPACTS...Snow and blowing snow will produce difficult driving 
  conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...Low to Medium.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Lake Effect Snow Watch means that narrow bands of locally heavy
lake effect snow are possible across the region...along with
rapid changes in road and visibility conditions that can have a
significant impact on travel.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

896 
WWUS41 KBUF 150847
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
347 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

NYZ019-020-151700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0007.170215T1800Z-170216T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0006.170215T1800Z-170216T2100Z/
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Including the cities of Jamestown and Olean
347 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 PM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Lake Effect
Snow Warning...which is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to
4 PM EST Thursday. The Lake Effect Snow Watch is no longer in
effect.

* LOCATIONS...Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties. Greatest snow
  amounts along the Chautauqua Ridge axis. 

* TIMING...From early this afternoon through late Thursday 
  afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Up to 2 inches this afternoon...5 to 9 inches
  tonight...and 2 to 4 inches Thursday...leading to storm totals
  of 8 to 14 inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...A quarter mile or less at times. 

* IMPACTS...Snow and blowing snow will produce difficult driving 
  conditions with poor visibility and deep snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of 
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can
also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

&&

Experimental content below...do not use operationally
Please see below links for more information on this experiment
http://www.weather.gov/buf/polygon_pdd
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/
pns15lake_effect_snowaaa.htm
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4239 7855 4252 7859 4244 7893 4257 7909 
        4246 7940 4227 7975 4199 7977 4207 7943 4217 7900 
        4224 7881 
TIME Y17M02D15T1800Z-Y17M02D16T1200Z

$$

NYZ004>006-151700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0007.170215T1800Z-170217T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0013.170215T2100Z-170217T0000Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
347 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Lake Effect
Snow Advisory...which is in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to
7 PM EST Thursday. The Lake Effect Snow Watch is no longer in
effect.

* LOCATIONS...Wayne...northern Cayuga...and Oswego counties.

* TIMING...From late this afternoon through early Thursday
  evening.

* ACCUMULATIONS...An inch or less this afternoon...3 to 6 inches 
  tonight...and 1 to 3 inches Thursday...leading to storm totals 
  of 5 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...as low as a half a mile. 

* IMPACTS...Snow and blowing snow will produce difficult driving 
  conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

Report snow accumulation to the National Weather Service in
Buffalo by sending an email to bufstorm.report@noaa.gov...posting
to the NWS Buffalo facebook page...or tweet...using the hashtag
bufwx

&&

$$

NYZ085-151700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0007.170215T1800Z-170216T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0013.170215T1800Z-170216T2100Z/
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park and Springville
347 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Lake Effect
Snow Advisory...which is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to
4 PM EST Thursday. The Lake Effect Snow Watch is no longer in
effect.

* LOCATIONS...Southern Erie County.

* TIMING...From early this afternoon through late Thursday 
  afternoon.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 to 2 inches this afternoon...3 to 6 inches 
  tonight...and 1 to 2 inches Thursday...leading to storm totals 
  of 5 to 10 inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...a half mile or less at times. 

* IMPACTS...Snow and blowing snow will produce difficult driving 
  conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

Report snow accumulation to the National Weather Service in
Buffalo by sending an email to bufstorm.report@noaa.gov...posting
to the NWS Buffalo facebook page...or tweet...using the hashtag
bufwx

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-151700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0013.170215T2100Z-170217T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, and Rochester
347 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Lake Effect
Snow Advisory...which is in effect from 4 PM this afternoon to
7 PM EST Thursday.

* LOCATIONS...Niagara, Orleans and Monroe Counties. 

* TIMING...From late this afternoon through early Thursday 
  evening.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 to 5 inches tonight and 1 to 3 inches
  Thursday...leading to storm totals of 4 to 8 inches in the most
  persistent lake snows.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...a half mile or less at times. 

* IMPACTS...Snow and blowing snow will produce difficult driving 
  conditions with poor visibility and snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In lake effect snow the weather can vary from locally heavy snow
in narrow bands to clear skies just a few miles away. If you will
be traveling across the region be prepared for rapid changes in
road and visibility conditions.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

Report snow accumulation to the National Weather Service in
Buffalo by sending an email to bufstorm.report@noaa.gov...posting
to the NWS Buffalo facebook page...or tweet...using the hashtag
bufwx

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-151700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0010.170215T1200Z-170216T2100Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
347 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO
4 PM EST THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for Snow...which is in effect from 7 AM this
morning to 4 PM EST Thursday.

* LOCATIONS...North Country. Greatest snows along the northwest
  facing Tug Hill, and western Adirondack foot hills. 

* TIMING...From early this morning through late Thursday 
  afternoon.

* HAZARDS...Snow.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 to 3 inches today...3 to 6 inches tonight...
  and 1 to 3 inches Thursday...leading to storm totals of 6 to 12 
  inches.

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 mph.

* VISIBILITIES...Under a half mile at times.

* IMPACTS...Snow will produce difficult driving conditions with 
poor visibility and snow covered roads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory is normally issued for a variety of
winter weather conditions such as light snow, blowing snow,
sleet, freezing rain and wind chills. While the weather will be
significant, the word advisory implies that severe winter weather
is not anticipated.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can also be found at www.weather.gov/Buffalo.

Report snow accumulation to the National Weather Service in
Buffalo by sending an email to bufstorm.report@noaa.gov...posting
to the NWS Buffalo facebook page...or tweet...using the hashtag
bufwx

&&

$$

Thomas

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
352 AM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure draped across New York State will drift east across
New England today while maintaining dry weather for all areas except for
the North Country...where a rain or snow shower cannot be ruled out
late in the day. A clipper system passing by to our north will then
bring some light snow showers to the area tonight and Wednesday...with
areas of lake effect snow then affecting areas east and southeast of the
lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. After that warmer temperatures will
return for the weekend...then will persist into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
During the course of today weak surface high pressure draped across
central and eastern New York will slide east across New England...
while a clipper system slowly drops southeastward across Ontario
Province. The developing warm air advection regime between these two
systems will help to pump 925mb temps up to the -2C and -5C range
east of Lake Ontario and to between -2C and +1C across the remainder
of our region...which at the surface will translate into temps climbing
back above normal...with afternoon highs ranging from the 30s east of
Lake Ontario to the upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere. Across far
western New York...the combination of a tightening pressure gradient/
developing 30-40 knot southwesterly low level jet and funnelling up
Lake Erie out ahead of the low will also lead to a period of windy
conditions across the Niagara Frontier late this morning and this
afternoon...where some wind gusts to 30-35 knots will be possible
during the midday and afternoon hours.

Precipitation-wise...it still appears as if the approaching clipper
will remain far enough to our north to allow for a dry day across the
vast majority of the area...with partly to mostly sunny skies this
morning merely giving way to increasing clouds this afternoon. The
one exception to this will be across the North Country...where a
rain or snow shower cannot be totally ruled out late this afternoon.
With this in mind...have continued to advertise slight chance to
very low-end chance PoPs for this latter area.

Tonight the clipper system will slide further southeastward toward the
Upper Saint Lawrence Valley. Increasing moisture and synoptic-scale
ascent attendant to the low and its trailing cold front will bring an
increasing potential for snow showers regionwide...with the greatest
probabilities of these found east of Lakes Erie and Ontario where
upsloping and moisture contributions from the lakes will help to provide
some additional enhancement. Expect total nighttime snow accumulations to
range from an inch or two in the favored areas of enhancement east of
the lakes to less than an inch elsewhere...with temperatures settling
into the upper 20s and lower 30s overnight following the passage of the
cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
For those of you that enjoy winter and all it has to offer...you may
want to savor these next few days as a fairly big pattern change is
on the horizon. Temperatures will average below normal during this
three day stretch...while most areas will pick up at least a coating
to an inch of snow. Meanwhile...accumulating to possibly significant
lake snows will be possible southeast of both lakes.

A robust shortwave...seen in WV imagery over the far reaches of
northwest Ontario early this morning...will be the impetus for the
bulk of our weather during this period. This feature will dig
southeast across the Upper Great Lakes today before plowing across
Lakes Erie and Ontario late tonight and Wednesday. In the process...
it will re-establish a deep longwave trough over eastern Canada. The
combination of the trough and a high amplitude ridge over the
western half of the continent will funnel cold air south into our
region and set the stage for the aforementioned snowfall.

Meanwhile...the telltale sign of a significant pattern change and
subsequent warm up for our region will be on the horizon as a very
strong East Asian jet with H25-30 winds of 175 knots will screaming
across the Pacific. More on this in the long term section below.

This period will open on Wednesday morning with a stacked storm
system over the Ottawa Valley. The surface portion of this system
will be nearly 'sterile' at this point...with the bulk of the
dynamics from the system pushing east of our forecast area. The sfc
reflection...which will be in the vcnty of the Upper St Lawrence
Valley Wednesday morning...will transfer its remaining energy to the
coast where 150m hgt falls will once again lead to explosive
cyclogenesis off the coast of Maine. This will only leave some weak
synoptic forcing over our region from the passing of the parent mid
level low...so snowfall over the bulk of the region will be light
and inconsequential. More widespread snow will be found near the
Chautauqua Ridge and also east of Lake Ontario where there will be
some added orographic lift. In terms of accumulations...most areas
will pick up less than an inch of snow through the day...while sites
near the Chautauqua Ridge and east of Lake Ontario will pick up as
much as 2 inches. High temperatures on Wednesday will be within a
few degrees of freezing.

As we push through Wednesday afternoon and into the evening...the
cold air will deepen enough on the backside of the stacked storm to
support instability over the lakes. Lake enhanced snows will
transition to pure lake effect with possibly significant
accumulations setting up in the snowbelts southeast of both lakes.
In both cases...the cap will be in the vcnty of 10k ft with plenty
of synoptic moisture to work with through the boundary layer.
Microphysically...BUFKIT profiles are suggesting that the dendritic
growth zone could be as deep as 5k ft...which would be very
beneficial for efficient snow making and higher end snowfall rates.
The snow off Lake Ontario will likely have an upstream feed from
Georgian Bay as well. Have thus decided to issue a lake effect snow
watch for this period for sites southeast of both lakes.

The impactful lake snows southeast of both lakes will continue
through the day Thursday...although the thinning of synoptic
moisture in advance of a narrow area of high pressure will encourage
the snow to gradually taper off during the course of the afternoon.
This will especially be the case for the snow off Lake Erie. At this
point in February...the influences of stronger diurnal mixing will
also have to be taken into account as the bands should become more
cellular. Outside of the accumulating lake snows...there should only
be some nuisance light snow showers. It will be cold Thursday...
with the mercury not making it out of the mid 20s. These readings
will be at least 10 deg f below normal.

On Thursday night...the narrow area of high pressure will start to
cross our forecast area. While adding shear to the lake effect
environment... there will also be continued drying aloft with a
lowering cap. This should bring an end to the healthy accumulating
snowfall...although snow showers should persist through the night
(esp off Lk Ont). Otherwise it will be partly cloudy and cold with
mins in the teens and low 20s.

Broad ridging will build across the Upper Great Lakes on Friday while
surface high pressure will be found over our forecast area. The warm
advection associated with this will totally bring an end to the lake
effect activity while skies will become partly to mostly sunny. The
onset of warm advection will allow temps to climb back towards
freezing over the western counties...but the mercury will old in the
mid 20s across the North Country.

While a warm front could glance the western counties Friday night...
rising heights within a dry airmass should keep fair weather in
place.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
This period can be summed up in three words...Above Normal
Temperatures.

Countless Pacific shortwaves within the strong east Asian jet will
mercilessly beat down/displace the western ridge in the days leading
up to this period. This will lead to general ridging over eastern
half of the country...with the boundary layer being dominated by air
of Pacific origin. The result will be a modification in our
temperatures to above normal levels. Some details...

Broad...low amplitude ridging will be found over the Lower Great
Lakes on Saturday. This will support fair weather over our
region...with H85 temps climbing to as high as 6c over the western
counties ahead of a weak...moisture starved frontal boundary. Temps
will climb well into the 40s across the western counties with 30s
found over the North Country. There is a very real possibility that
readings could even get to 50 for portions of the Srn Tier.

The weak frontal boundary will pass through our region Saturday
night...but do not see enough forcing of moisture to warrant pops.

Significant amplification in a ridge over the Ohio Valley Upper
Great Lakes is then anticipated for Sunday and Monday. This will
keep fair uneventful weather in place with daytime temps generally
in the 40s (up 30s North Country).

Looking further down the road at the remainder of the week...
There is a strong suggestion by many of the medium range ECMWF and
GFS ensembles that a Rex block will develop over central Canada. If
this were to verify...a deep Pacific flow would remain in place on
the equatorward side of this block...keeping temperatures well above
normal across the Lower 48. It is not an understatement to say that
winter will take a hiatus for the weekend well into (and possibly
through) the new week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through daybreak...lingering lingering high-end MVFR/low-end VFR
stratocu across the far eastern Finger Lakes and North Country will
continue to scatter out from west to east...resulting in a return to
VFR conditions areawide.

Once we get into the daylight hours...VFR conditions should persist
through the day...with clouds increasing during the afternoon as
low pressure over Ontario Province drops southeastward toward our
region. The approaching low will also usher in a period of windy
conditions across extreme far western New York late this morning
and this afternoon...when southwesterly winds could gust to as high
as 30-35 knots from KDKK northeastward to KBUF/KIAG.

Tonight...conditions will steadily deteriorate to MVFR/IFR as the
low pushes into nearby southern Ontario...and spreads an increasing
likelihood of snow showers across our region.

Outlook...
Wednesday and Thursday...MVFR with scattered snow showers...and
areas of IFR in lake effect snow east and southeast of the lakes.
Friday...A chance of snow showers/MVFR southeast of Lake Ontario...
otherwise mainly VFR.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure dropping southeastward across Ontario Province will
bring increasing southwesterly winds to the region today...with
these expected to become strong enough to warrant small craft
advisories for both Lake Erie and the Upper Niagara River and
Buffalo Harbor. Elsewhere winds will be be weaker and/or oriented
offshore...which should preclude the need for additional advisories
through tonight.

In the wake of the low...brisk westerlies are expected across the
entire Lower Lakes Region Wednesday and Thursday...and these will
likely necessitate the eventual issuance of more widespread small
craft advisories for that particular time frame.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Watch from Wednesday evening through late
     Thursday night for NYZ004>006.
     Lake Effect Snow Watch from Wednesday afternoon through
     Thursday afternoon for NYZ019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
         Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EST this
         evening for LEZ020.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1106 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-141615-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
1106 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product...along with other watches...warnings...advisories...
and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in
Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-141615-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
1106 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie...Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product...along with other watches...warnings...advisories...
and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in
Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf