River Flood Warning 16, NWS Burlington, VT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
404 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area
into early this evening with some of the storms producing
torrential rainfall and strong gusty winds. A cold front will
move through the region tonight so the weather will calm down
significantly for the remainder of the holiday weekend with just
a slight chance of showers or isolated thunderstorm possible
north on both Sunday and Independence Day. After very humid
weather today, relative humidity values drop to more tolerable
levels for Sunday onward into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 404 PM EDT Saturday...

***Flash Flood Watch through 5 a.m. Sunday ***
***Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 p.m. ***

Flash flooding and severe thunderstorm warnings in progress and
continuing threat of flash flooding through late tonight and
severe weather for the next few hours mainly across central and
southern VT.

Expecting the showers and thunderstorms to taper off from west
to east this evening, but a chance of showers and and
thunderstorms is still possible as the cold front moves in from
the west. Some clearing takes place Low temperatures by morning
holding on the mild side and mainly in the 60s.

A fairly decent day then looks on tap for Sunday as weak surface
high pressure builds into the area with partial sunshine and
with 850 temps around 12C expecting temperatures from the mid
70s to lower 80s. We do however remain under the base of a
central Canada longwave trough, and toward the end of the day
additional shortwave energy embedded withing the broadly
cyclonic flow aloft will encroach into far northern zones. This
feature may spark a few showers or isolated storms toward
sunset.

Sunday evening a short wave trof will be moving through the
region so any evening showers and thunderstorms will be
tapering off Sunday later at tonight with low temperatures
falling back into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 404 PM EDT Saturday...An upper level trough axis will
slide across the region on Monday. There won't be much available
energy or moisture, but perhaps just enough dynamics aloft to
touch off an afternoon or early evening shower. Other than that,
expect an improving trend in the weather as surface high
pressure starts to build down from Ontario. Temperatures should
remain right around seasonal normals with dew points dropping
back into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 404 PM EDT Saturday...The surface high will settle over
the area Tuesday and Wednesday before starting to slip east off
the New England coast by Thursday. There remains a weak trough
aloft nearby on Tuesday. I've kept things dry right now with a
dry and cool airmass in place. But, it would be prudent to keep
an eye on a cold pool aloft that should stay just to our north.
500 HPA temps close to -20 degrees C is forecast to remain over
Quebec, but there is a tight temperature gradient aloft, so it
won't take much of a deviation from what we currently expect to
have conditions become more favorable for an afternoon shower or
thunderstorm.

Wednesday should be the nicest day of the week, before a return to
unsettled weather for the end of the week.  Both the GFS and ECMWF
advertise a sharper trough approaching the northeast and Great Lakes
by then with a surface low pressure development in the Ohio Valley
or mid-Atlantic coast. Both Thursday and Friday look wet at this
point.

Have cleared things out by next Saturday for now.  A lot of this
will depend on how amplified the upper level trough is and the
eventual evolution of the surface low. So, would not be shocked if
we do wind up with at least diurnally driven convection for the
first part of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Active forecast period with stormy, widely
variable conds but especially IFR at KMPV/KRUT through 02Z as a
cold front moves through the region, then quieting wx.
Contemplated fog at SLK and MPV but it looks like enough wind in
the boundary layer to preclude that.

Winds generally south 5 to 10 kts with occasional gusts to 15
kts, though locally stronger to 30+ knots in vicinity of KRUT in
thunderstorms late this afternoon.

After 02Z...Improving conditions as showers/thunderstorms taper
off west to east under SCT/BKN VFR/MVFR cigs. Winds remain
light south to southwesterly.

Sunday...becoming VFR with west to southwest winds 5 to 10 knots
perhaps a gust to 15 is possible esp at KMSS.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Independence Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 404 PM EDT Saturday...Up to 2.5 inches of rain has fallen
in south central VT this afternoon so risk flash flooding near
brooks and streams is expected into tonight so Flash Flood
warnings and watches in effect. In addition, mainstem rivers
from the Winooski southward may experience flooding through
tonight as well. Persons in flood prone areas or near streams
should be prepared to take action quickly if heavy rain occurs
or rising water is observed. Never drive through flooded areas.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for VTZ001>010-016>018.
NY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Sisson
NEAR TERM...Sisson
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Sisson
HYDROLOGY...JMG

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