River Flood Warning 10, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

481 
WGUS81 KBOX 061832
FLSBOX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017


...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers in 
Massachusetts...Rhode Island...

  Assabet River At Maynard affecting Middlesex and Worcester Counties
  Pawtuxet River At Cranston affecting Kent and Providence Counties

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Connecticut...Rhode Island...Massachusetts...
  Connecticut River At Hartford affecting Hartford and Middlesex 
  Counties
  Connecticut River At Middle Haddam affecting Middlesex County
  Pawcatuck River At Wood River Jct affecting Washington County
  Pawcatuck River At Westerly affecting New London and Washington 
  Counties
  Taunton River Near Bridgewater affecting Bristol and Plymouth 
  Counties
  Wood River At Hope Valley affecting Washington County


Heavy rains today, in addition from rain events over the past week
and a half, continue bring rises in the area main stem rivers.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...A Flood Statement providing the latest information 
in this flood event will be issued within the next 8 hours, or 
earlier if needed.

Safety Message...Do not allow children to play near swollen rivers, 
streams or culverts. Swiftly moving water can pose an imminent threat
to life.



&&

MAC017-027-071832-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0007.170406T1934Z-000000T0000Z/
/MAYM3.1.ER.170406T1934Z.170407T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Assabet River At Maynard.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  2:15 PM Thursday the stage was 5.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 5.3 feet by after midnight tonight.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...Minor lowland and backyard flooding is likely
  along reaches of the river in Maynard, Concord as well as Hudson. 
  Several river roads may also become covered in water.

&&

LAT...LON 4236 7159 4240 7162 4250 7136 4241 7135


$$

RIC003-007-071832-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-170408T0000Z/
/CRAR1.1.ER.170406T2332Z.170407T0600Z.170407T1800Z.NO/
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pawtuxet River At Cranston.
* until Friday evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:45 PM Thursday the stage was 7.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 9.5 feet by after midnight tonight.The river will fall
  below flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.5 feet...Parking lots and roads are flooded in low 
  lying areas of Warwick and Cranston near the Pawtuxet River. 
  Impacted roads include River Street, Pioneer Avenue, Bellows Street
  and Venturi Avenue in Warwick.

&&

LAT...LON 4178 7156 4180 7139 4172 7137 4170 7155


$$

CTC003-007-071832-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0008.170407T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
/HFDC3.1.ER.170407T2100Z.170409T0800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Connecticut River At Hartford.
* from Friday afternoon until further notice...or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  1:30 PM Thursday the stage was 14.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 18.1 feet by Sunday morning. Additional 
  rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Flooding of low lying areas below Hartford 
  is expected, especially in areas that are outside of levee 
  protection. Flooding also affects low lying areas upstream of 
  Hartford, including a portion of Windsor where the Farmington River
  empties into the Connecticut River. Further downstream flooding is 
  expected in low lying sections along the Connecticut River from 
  Wethersfield and Glastonbury downstream through Cromwell, 
  Middletown and Portland. Boating interests should prepare for swift
  river flows.

&&

LAT...LON 4163 7270 4180 7273 4180 7259 4164 7258
      4163 7263 4164 7263            

$$

CTC007-071832-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0009.170407T0200Z-000000T0000Z/
/MHDC3.1.ER.170407T0200Z.170409T0400Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Connecticut River At Middle Haddam.
* from this evening until further notice...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  1:55 PM Thursday the stage was 6.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Flooding is expected in low lying sections 
  along the Connecticut River from Wethersfield and Glastonbury 
  downstream through Cromwell, Middletown and Portland. Boating 
  interests should prepare for a period of swift river flows.

&&

LAT...LON 4164 7269 4164 7258 4129 7225 4126 7239
      4141 7251 4156 7270            

$$

RIC009-071832-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0010.170407T1200Z-170409T0600Z/
/WODR1.1.ER.170407T1200Z.170407T1800Z.170409T0000Z.NO/
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pawcatuck River At Wood River Jct.
* from Friday morning to late Saturday night...or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  1:45 PM Thursday the stage was 4.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue 
  to rise to near 5.1 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.The river will
  fall below flood stage by Saturday evening.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...Floodwaters begin to spread onto Driftwood 
  Drive in Charlestown.

&&

LAT...LON 4137 7177 4145 7179 4148 7160 4139 7158


$$

CTC011-RIC009-071831-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WSTR1.1.ER.170404T1650Z.170407T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pawcatuck River At Westerly.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  2:00 PM Thursday the stage was 7.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 8.2 feet by this 
  evening.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Lowland flooding is anticipated from 
  Hopkinton downriver through Westerly, Stonington and New 
  Stonington. Lowest lying homes along Hiscox Road in Westerly are 
  inundated by floodwaters. Along Route 3, flooding occurs at homes 
  in French Village in Hopkinton. Follow the advice of local 
  officials, and evacuate if asked to do so. Floodwaters may inundate
  Route 49 by the North Stonington and Stonington town line.

&&

LAT...LON 4134 7189 4144 7188 4146 7177 4135 7174
      4131 7185                      

$$

MAC005-023-071831-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BDGM3.1.ER.170402T0922Z.170403T1500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Taunton River Near Bridgewater.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:45 PM Thursday the stage was 7.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 8.4 feet by early Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Backwater flooding from the Taunton River 
  will cause flooding of lower Purchade Brook in Middleboro.  This 
  will cause Woloski Park to become impassable by most vehicles.  
  Beware of the dangers of crossing flooded roadways.  

&&

LAT...LON 4182 7119 4202 7097 4194 7087 4177 7110


$$

RIC009-071831-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170408T0600Z/
/HOPR1.1.ER.170405T0800Z.170407T1800Z.170408T0000Z.NO/
232 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wood River At Hope Valley.
* until late Friday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:15 PM Thursday the stage was 4.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue 
  to rise to near 5.1 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.The river will
  fall below flood stage by tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...In Richmond, floodwaters begin to pond onto 
  Wood River Drive. In Hopkinton off of Main Street, the Wood River 
  begins to flood Dow Park.

&&

LAT...LON 4143 7176 4160 7174 4160 7163 4144 7164


$$

153 
WGUS81 KBOX 070309
FLSBOX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1109 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Rhode 
Island...

  Pawcatuck River At Wood River Jct affecting Washington County
  Wood River At Hope Valley affecting Washington County

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers in 
Massachusetts...Rhode Island...

  Assabet River At Maynard affecting Middlesex and Worcester Counties
  Pawtuxet River At Cranston affecting Kent and Providence Counties

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Connecticut...Massachusetts...Rhode Island...
  Connecticut River At Hartford affecting Hartford and Middlesex 
  Counties
  Connecticut River At Middle Haddam affecting Middlesex County
  Sudbury River At Saxonville affecting Middlesex County
  Charles River At Dover affecting Middlesex and Norfolk Counties
  Pawcatuck River At Westerly affecting New London and Washington 
  Counties
  Taunton River Near Bridgewater affecting Bristol and Plymouth 
  Counties


Runoff from our recent heavy rain will continue to result in minor
river flooding across several locations.  Below is an updated forecast.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety Message...A Flood Statement providing the latest information 
in this flood event will be issued within the next 8 hours, or 
earlier if needed.

Safety Message...Do not allow children to play near swollen rivers, 
streams or culverts. Swiftly moving water can pose an imminent threat
to life.



&&

RIC009-070339-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170409T0600Z/
/WODR1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1109 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Pawcatuck River At Wood River Jct.
* At  9:45 PM Thursday the stage was 4.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage with a value of 
  4.8 feet Friday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 4137 7177 4145 7179 4148 7160 4139 7158


$$

RIC009-070339-
/O.CAN.KBOX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170408T0600Z/
/HOPR1.N.ER.170405T0800Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1109 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Wood River At Hope Valley.
* At 10:15 PM Thursday the stage was 4.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage with a value of 
  4.6 feet Friday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 4143 7176 4160 7174 4160 7163 4144 7164


$$

MAC017-027-080308-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170409T1200Z/
/MAYM3.1.ER.170406T2330Z.170407T1200Z.170409T0600Z.NO/
1109 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Assabet River At Maynard.
* until Sunday morning...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:15 PM Thursday the stage was 5.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 5.2 feet by 
  Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...Minor lowland and backyard flooding is likely
  along reaches of the river in Maynard, Concord as well as Hudson. 
  Several river roads may also become covered in water.

&&

LAT...LON 4236 7159 4240 7162 4250 7136 4241 7135


$$

RIC003-007-080308-
/O.EXT.KBOX.FL.W.0005.000000T0000Z-170409T0800Z/
/CRAR1.1.ER.170407T0800Z.170408T0000Z.170409T0200Z.NO/
1109 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pawtuxet River At Cranston.
* until late Saturday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:45 PM Thursday the stage was 8.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Friday and continue to
  rise to near 9.8 feet by Friday evening.The river will fall below
  flood stage by Saturday night.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Flooding will occur along Pioneer Avenue, 
  Bellows Street and Venturi Avenue in Warwick. Some homes are 
  impacted on Avery Road and Wellington Avenue in Cranston.

&&

LAT...LON 4178 7156 4180 7139 4172 7137 4170 7155


$$

CTC003-007-080308-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0008.170407T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
/HFDC3.1.ER.170407T2100Z.170409T0800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1109 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Connecticut River At Hartford.
* from Friday afternoon until further notice...or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At 10:30 PM Thursday the stage was 14.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Friday afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 18.1 feet by Sunday morning. Additional 
  rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Flooding of low lying areas below Hartford 
  is expected, especially in areas that are outside of levee 
  protection. Flooding also affects low lying areas upstream of 
  Hartford, including a portion of Windsor where the Farmington River
  empties into the Connecticut River. Further downstream flooding is 
  expected in low lying sections along the Connecticut River from 
  Wethersfield and Glastonbury downstream through Cromwell, 
  Middletown and Portland. Boating interests should prepare for swift
  river flows.

&&

LAT...LON 4163 7270 4180 7273 4180 7259 4164 7258
      4163 7263 4164 7263            

$$

CTC007-080308-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MHDC3.1.ER.170407T0030Z.170409T0400Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1109 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Connecticut River At Middle Haddam.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:55 PM Thursday the stage was 7.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will remain above flood stage with additional
  rises into the weekend
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Flooding is expected in low lying sections 
  along the Connecticut River from Wethersfield and Glastonbury 
  downstream through Cromwell, Middletown and Portland. Boating 
  interests should prepare for a period of swift river flows.

&&

LAT...LON 4164 7269 4164 7258 4129 7225 4126 7239
      4141 7251 4156 7270            

$$

MAC017-080308-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0011.170407T1800Z-170408T1800Z/
/SAXM3.1.ER.170407T1800Z.170407T1800Z.170408T1200Z.NO/
1109 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sudbury River At Saxonville.
* from Friday afternoon to Saturday afternoon...or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At 10:15 PM Thursday the stage was 9.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage 
  Friday morning  and remain there before dropping below flood stage late
  Saturday.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Flooding will affect low lying areas along 
  the river in Wayland, including a portion of Shore Road and Pelham 
  Island Road near Heards Pond.

&&

LAT...LON 4227 7140 4230 7145 4248 7139 4245 7129


$$

MAC017-021-080308-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0012.170407T0600Z-170408T0600Z/
/DOVM3.1.ER.170407T0600Z.170407T0600Z.170408T0000Z.NO/
1109 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Charles River At Dover.
* until late Friday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:45 PM Thursday the stage was 4.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage by early Friday
  morning before dropping on Saturday.
* Impact...At 5.0 feet...People living along the Charles River should 
  prepare for flooding of low lying areas along the river. 
  Susceptible locations include low lying areas along Fisher Street 
  in Needham and a small area on the South Natick and Wellesley line 
  along River Street.

&&

LAT...LON 4210 7138 4216 7145 4235 7126 4226 7116


$$

CTC011-RIC009-080308-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WSTR1.1.ER.170404T1650Z.170407T0015Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1109 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Pawcatuck River At Westerly.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:00 PM Thursday the stage was 7.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 7.6 feet by 
  Friday morning.  The river will then slowly fall but remain above 
  flood stage into the weekend.
* Impact...At 8.0 feet...Floodwaters approach lowest lying homes along
  Hiscox Road in Westerly. Along Route 3, flooding occurs at some 
  homes in French Village in Hopkinton.

&&

LAT...LON 4134 7189 4144 7188 4146 7177 4135 7174
      4131 7185                      

$$

MAC005-023-080308-
/O.CON.KBOX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BDGM3.1.ER.170402T0922Z.170403T1500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1109 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Taunton River Near Bridgewater.
* until further notice...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:45 PM Thursday the stage was 8.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 8.5 feet by early
  Saturday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...Backwater flooding from the Taunton River 
  will cause flooding of lower Purchade Brook in Middleboro.  This 
  will cause Woloski Park to become impassable by most vehicles for 
  an extended period of time.  Beware of the dangers of crossing 
  flooded roadways. The water may be deeper than you think.  
  Floodwaters have the ability to damage roadways. Heed the advice of
  local officials, and evacuate if asked to do so. 

&&

LAT...LON 4182 7119 4202 7097 4194 7087 4177 7110

$$

Frank

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
934 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Approaching low pressure will allow showers to develop this morning
and become heavy at times this afternoon and early evening with
embedded thunderstorms.  This will bring the potential for urban
flooding during the evening rush hour along with some more minor
river flooding. Showers will linger across interior southern
New England during Friday as low pressure pushes north of the
region. As showers begin to taper off Friday night, there may be
a mix or change to wet snow over the higher terrain before
ending. Large high pressure will build slowly across the region
this weekend with dry conditions and and warming temperatures,
especially early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM update...

Scattered brief heavy showers moving through SNE this morning.
Will likely see a brief lull late morning into early afternoon
before heavier showers overspread the region after 18z. This in
response to leading edge of developing low level jet. However,
of greater concern is the 21-00z period when the nose of 60-70
kt low level jet swings through ahead of the occlusion and
possible triple point low which will likely result in a brief
period of heavy showers and a few t-storms. Localized rainfall
rates in any t-storms may reach 0.50-1.00/hr.

While the overall severe threat is low, it can't be entirely
ruled out late afternoon/early evening given strong forcing for
ascent at the nose of the low level jet and most models
indicating up to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE near the south coast.
Tremendous low level shear with 0-1km helicity exceeding 400
units and 0-1km shear over 40 kt so low risk for an isold severe
storm if there is enough instability to generate convection and
even a low risk for a brief tornado along the warm front and
possible triple point low. Strong low level inversion is a big
limiting factor but hi-res guidance indicates a sharp temp
increase possibly into the upper 50s from 5-8 pm across RI and
SE MA as the warm front lifts north which would weaken low level
inversion. Bottom line is radar will have to be watched very
closely late today/evening with main threat near the south
coast of RI and SE MA.

Temps will remain in the upper 30s to lower/mid 40s for much of
the day but may spike into the mid/upper 50s across RI/SE MA
late today/early evening with warm fropa. Strong Low level
inversion will initially limit mixing but there will be a
brief window for stronger gusts to reach the surface near the
south coast as temps sharply rise through the 50s and with any
convection which may be able to mix stronger winds down.

Previous discussion...

Highlights...

* Main time of concern between 1 pm and 8 pm this evening
* Showers and embedded thunderstorms with heavy rainfall expected
* Urban/poor drainage street flooding may impact evening rush hour
* Some Minor River Flooding Expected

Details...

1) Timing:

Deep closed upper level low near Chicago early this morning will
lift northeast into western NY later today.  In response an east to
southeast low level jet will result in showers overspreading the
region this morning, but the heaviest rain should hold off until
this afternoon and early evening.  This as the vigorous closed low
gets closer this afternoon allowing the southerly LLJ/PWATS to reach
2+ standard deviations above normal.

Bands of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon and evening with the potential for urban and poor
drainage street flooding. Unfortunately, this looks to coincide
with the evening rush hour. Renewed minor river flooding
expected in several locations which will discuss more in the
Hydrology section. Should see heavy rain showers and embedded
thunderstorms quickly exit the coastal plain near or just after
8 pm as best forcing and dry slot rapidly move in from the west.

2) Rainfall Amounts:

The majority of the 00z model guidance has cut back just a bit on
the QPF. Nonetheless, still expecting widespread 0.75" to 1.50"
rainfall amounts with localized 2"+ amounts in any convection.
Highest risk for this may end up across parts of eastern CT/RI and
SE MA which will discuss more below.  The main idea is that the bulk
of this rain will fall over a short time, with some locations
receiving one half to 1 inch of rain in just an hour.  That will
cause some urban and poor drainage street flooding issues,
especially if it occurs in our more vulnerable locations during the
evening rush hour.

3) Thunderstorm And Strong Wind Potential:

Given the southeast surface winds blowing over the cold ocean there
will be a very strong inversion present today.  However, some models
are showing impressive elevated instability developing above the
inversion aided by the strong low level jet.  While embedded
thunderstorms are possible across the entire region, the greatest
concern will be across RI/SE MA where NAM/GFS indicate MUCapes
between 500 and 1000 J/KG.

Given the strong low level inversion in place, the overall severe
weather threat is low but can not be ruled out across southeast New
England. The inversion is quite shallow, mainly below 950 mb with
very strong winds of 60 knots at 1500 feet.  Given the amount of
elevated instability/jet dynamics, there is a low risk that these
winds could break through the inversion via mesoscale processes such
as pressure changes etc. So in a nutshell, while it is a low
probability we can not completely rule out a few severe thunderstorms
between 4 and 8 pm this evening across southeast New England.  This
would be coupled with the risk of urban/poor drainage street
flooding, so something will have to watch closely.

4) Coastal Flooding Risk Along the South Coast:

Given strong low level inversion the coastal flooding threat will be
limited along the south coast during the early evening high tide.
However, given the potential for a 2 foot storm surge, building seas
offshore along with pressure falls there may be some isolated
pockets of splash over or very minor coastal flooding. Opted to just
issue a coastal flood statement at this point, as any impacts look
isolated and very minor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Tonight...

Strong forcing will rapidly exit the region early this evening along
with the potent low level jet.  So while the threat for widespread
heavy rain/embedded thunderstorms will come to an end near or
shortly after 8 pm, a closed upper level low will remain to our
west. Therefore, a few showers will remain possible especially
during the first part of the night.  Much of tonight will probably
feature dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overview...

Overall mid and upper level pattern change will bring an end to
the stormy pattern by late this weekend, with drying conditions
and moderating temperatures early next week.

H5 cutoff low will slowly drift across central and northern New
England Friday into Saturday. With a continued SW wind flow at
the surface and aloft, leftover scattered showers will linger
especially across the interior. As the low shifts into northern
New England and Quebec late Fri night and Sat, will see winds
shift to W as the precip tapers off. Cooler air will work in
across the higher terrain overnight Fri night, so may see some
wet snow flakes as the precip tapers off.

High amplitude mid level ridge and associated large surface
high pressure will slowly shift east across the Appalachians
Sunday, then to the eastern seaboard early next week. This will
be drier conditions and milder temperatures. As the high settles
off the coast early next week, will see downright warm
temperatures working into the region on southwest winds.

A cold front may begin to approach the region Tuesday night or
next Wednesday, but the timing is uncertain as the high may sit
off the eastern seaboard.

Details...

Friday and Saturday...Moderate confidence.

Will see continue chance for showers mainly across the interior
on Friday into Friday night as low pressure at the surface and
aloft slowly meanders into northern New England. Carried mainly
chance POPs, though the best chance (likely POPs) will be across
the E slopes of the Berkshires during the day Fri. Will see
gusty SW winds along the S coast, up to 25-30 kt, but will start
to diminish there by Fri evening.

As the low pushes into Quebec Fri night, will start to see
winds shift from SW to W-NW overnight as they diminish. Any
lingering showers could start to mix with or change over to wet
snow flakes especially across the higher inland terrain around
or after midnight. The moisture should lift NE, so the precip
should taper off from S-N after midnight. Might see a few spots
see a little bit of slushy light snow accumulations across the
higher terrain before ending.

Expect dry conditions during Saturday, but clouds will linger
through midday. Will start to see clouds break from SW-NE during
the afternoon, finally clearing the E coast by late in the day.
Cooler temps will continue for one more day. Highs will only be
in the mid 40s to lower 50s, coldest across the higher terrain.
These readings will run 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal normals.

Sunday through Tuesday...Moderate to high confidence.

Long wave ridge and associated N-S elongated surface high will
slowly push to the eastern seaboard Sunday, then settles off the
coast on Monday. Will bring dry conditions through this period.

As the high moves off the coast and SW winds kick in, could see
temps rise to 15-20 degrees above seasonal levels by Tuesday.
Carried highs on Tuesday in the 70s away from the S coast, where
it will be much cooler with the onshore flow. Took a look at
record highs for 4/11. They are in the 78-80 degree range at
our long term climate sites so not close...yet.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Low confidence.

Timing of approaching cold front out of the Great Lakes in
question as the high looks to sit off the eastern seaboard.
Depending upon if the high shifts a bit further offshore, could
see showers move in. Lower confidence due to model solution
spread on the timing of the high's exit and the approach of the
front.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...

Remainder of today...Moderate confidence. Widespread MVFR-IFR
conditions, with periods of LIFR. Showers develop this morning,
with the greatest risk for heavy rainfall and embedded t-storms
between 18z and 00z. SE winds gusting of 25-35 knots expected to
develop this afternoon and continue into early this evening
along with LLWS.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.  Threat for heavy showers and
embedded thunderstorms should come to an end near or shortly after
00z.  MVFR-IFR conditions early in the evening should improve to
MVFR-VFR overnight.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.  Heaviest rain and
greatest risk for embedded thunderstorms between 19z and 00z.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.  Heaviest rain and
greatest risk for embedded thunderstorms between 17z and 23z.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday...Moderate confidence.

Lingering MVFR CIGS across most areas Friday into Friday night.
Local MVFR VSBYS in scattered -SHRA across the interior during
Fri, then may mix or change to -SHSN Fri night across the higher
inland terrain. Precip should taper off by 12Z Sat. SW winds
gusting to 25-30 kt along the S coast, Cape Cod and the islands
Fri, diminishing Fri night as they shift to W.

Saturday...High confidence.

Any leftover light showers will end early Sat morning. MVFR
CIGS will improve to VFR as clouds dissipate from SW-NE during
the day. W-NW winds may gust close to 25 kt along the immediate
S coast Sat morning through midday then should diminish.

Saturday night-Monday...High confidence.

VFR. W-NW winds 15 kt or less Sat night will diminish as they
shift to SW during Sun. SW winds continue on Monday, and may
gust up to 20 kt along the S coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tonight/...

Today and tonight...Moderate confidence. Strong southerly low
level jet develops this afternoon and evening, but will be
fighting a strong inversion at the surface. Still feel that we
should be able to see some gale force SE wind gusts later today
into this evening, particularly in embedded convection. Gale
Warnings posted all waters, except Small Crafts for Boston
Harbor/Narragansett Bay. Long southeast fetch should allow seas
to build to between 7 and 10 feet across the open waters later
today and tonight, despite the inversion.

Reduced visibilities expected in rain, which will be heavy at
times, and patchy fog. Scattered thunderstorms possible,
especially during the afternoon and evening. Conditions should
slowly improve from S-N overnight, but scattered showers will
linger.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday and Saturday...Moderate confidence.
Expect S-SW winds to gust up to 25-30 kt during Friday, highest
across the southern outer waters. Will likely see Small Crafts
on most waters. Seas will build to 6-12 ft. Locally reduced
visibilities possible during the day in scattered showers
Friday.

Winds and seas briefly diminish Fri night as they shift to W by
Sat morning. Gusts up to 25 kt will return across the southern
open waters Sat. Seas will remain at or above 5 ft on the waters
E and S of Nantucket and the southern waters Sat, but will
slowly subside on the eastern waters from Cape Cod northward
during Sat.

Saturday night...High confidence.
NW winds gusting to around 20 kt on the outer waters. Seas
subside below 5 ft on most waters, but may linger at around 5
ft S and E of Nantucket.

Sunday-Monday...High confidence.
W-NW winds at 15 kt or less early Sunday will back to SW and
diminish Sunday afternoon and night. SW winds will increase
during Monday, gusting to around 25 kt. Seas below 5 ft Sunday
and most of Monday, but may increase to around 5 ft on the
southern outer waters late in the day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Several river flood warnings remain in effect for the Assabet
at Maynard, Pawtuxet at Cranston, Pawcatuck at Westerly, Taunton
near Bridgewater, and Wood River At Hope Valley. While many of
these locations have temporarily dropped below flood stage,
renewed minor flooding is expected later today into Friday. This
from the expected widespread 0.75 to 1.50 inches of rain
expected with localized 2+ inch amounts through early this
evening.

In addition, the heavy rainfall and embedded thunderstorms this
afternoon and early evening will result in the potential for
some urban and poor drainage street flooding. Unfortunately,
some of this will likely impact the evening rush hour.

The following web site has more details:

https:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=box

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through Friday evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for MAZ002>024-026.
RI...Flood Watch through Friday evening for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ231>235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ230-236.
     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Friday for
     ANZ250-251-254.
     Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ255-256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frank/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC/Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...Frank/EVT
MARINE...Frank/EVT
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Taunton MA
424 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-070830-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
424 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, all of
Massachusetts except Berkshire County, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is a low risk for isolated strong thunderstorms between 4 PM
and 8 PM today across portions of Rhode Island into southeast
Massachusetts, with the possibility of strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ255-256-070830-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
424 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ250-251-254-070830-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
424 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ231>235-237-070830-
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
424 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230-236-070830-
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
424 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

You can follow us on Facebook at
www.facebook.com/NWSBoston

You can follow us on Twitter at
@NWSBoston

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1107 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-062230-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-
Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Putnam, Willimantic, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Barre,
Fitchburg, Framingham, Lowell, Lawrence, Gloucester,
Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, Springfield,
Milford, Worcester, Foxborough, Norwood, Cambridge, Boston,
Quincy, Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, Fall River, New Bedford,
Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, Vineyard Haven,
Nantucket, Ayer, Foster, Smithfield, Providence, Coventry,
West Greenwich, East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol,
Narragansett, Westerly, Newport, and New Shoreham
1107 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall this afternoon...

Showers are moving through southern New England late this morning.
Another round of showers, heavy at times will begin to overspread
the region after 1 pm with isolated thunderstorms possible. The
main threat is heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates in the heaviest
showers possibly reaching 0.50 to 1 inch per hour. The heavy
rainfall may produce areas of urban and poor drainage flooding.

In addition to the heavy rainfall, there is a low risk for a
strong to severe thunderstorm with damaging wind, mainly across
southern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts from 4 pm to 8
pm.

Motorists this afternoon should use caution and not drive through
areas where water covers the roadway.

KJC