Coastal Flood Statement 1, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

736 
WHUS41 KBOX 061417
CFWBOX

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1017 AM EDT THU APR 6 2017

MAZ020-021-RIZ002-004>007-062230-
/O.CON.KBOX.CF.S.0001.170406T1800Z-170407T0000Z/
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
1017 AM EDT THU APR 6 2017

* LOCATION...SOUTH COASTS OF BOTH RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS.

* TIDAL DEPARTURE...A 1 TO 2 FOOT STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE TIME OF 
  HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.

* TIMING...DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS EVENING.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS COUPLED WITH BUILDING SEAS
  JUST OFFSHORE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED POCKETS OF SPLASH OVER AND VERY MINOR
  COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER, ANY ISSUES WILL BE VERY MINOR. 

&&

TIME OF HIGH TOTAL TIDES ARE APPROXIMATE TO THE NEAREST HOUR.

NARRAGANSETT BAY - FOX POINT

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    4.2- 4.7    06/05 AM    0.0/ 0.5     1        NONE
    5.9- 6.4    06/05 PM    1.5/ 2.0    2-3       NONE
    4.7- 5.2    07/06 AM    0.2/ 0.8     1        NONE
    4.6- 5.1    07/06 PM    0.0/ 0.5    1-2       NONE
    4.4- 4.9    08/07 AM   -0.2/ 0.3     1        NONE
    4.7- 5.2    08/07 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE

NARRAGANSETT BAY - CONIMICUT POINT

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    4.5- 5.0    06/05 AM    0.4/ 0.9     1        NONE
    6.0- 6.5    06/05 PM    1.8/ 2.2    1-3       NONE
    5.0- 5.5    07/06 AM    0.8/ 1.3     1        NONE
    4.7- 5.2    07/06 PM    0.2/ 0.8    1-2       NONE
    4.2- 4.7    08/07 AM   -0.2/ 0.3     1        NONE
    4.5- 5.0    08/07 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE

POINT JUDITH

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    3.2- 3.7    06/05 AM    0.2/ 0.8     3        NONE
    4.9- 5.4    06/06 PM    1.8/ 2.2    5-8       NONE
    3.7- 4.2    07/06 AM    0.6/ 1.1    6-7       NONE
    3.5- 4.0    07/06 PM    0.2/ 0.7     8        NONE
    3.0- 3.5    08/07 AM   -0.2/ 0.3    6-7       NONE
    3.2- 3.7    08/07 PM   -0.2/ 0.2    3-4       NONE

WESTERLY

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    3.1- 3.6    06/06 AM    0.5/ 1.0     3        NONE
    4.4- 4.9    06/06 PM    1.8/ 2.2    5-6       NONE
    3.2- 3.7    07/07 AM    0.5/ 1.0     5        NONE
    2.8- 3.4    07/07 PM    0.1/ 0.6     6        NONE
    2.6- 3.1    08/08 AM   -0.2/ 0.3     4        NONE
    2.7- 3.2    08/08 PM   -0.2/ 0.2    1-2       NONE

NEWPORT HARBOR

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    4.0- 4.5    06/05 AM    0.4/ 0.9     1        NONE
    5.6- 6.1    06/05 PM    1.8/ 2.2    2-3       NONE
    4.5- 5.0    07/06 AM    0.7/ 1.1     1        NONE
    4.2- 4.7    07/06 PM    0.2/ 0.7    1-2       NONE
    3.7- 4.2    08/07 AM   -0.2/ 0.3     1        NONE
    4.0- 4.5    08/07 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE

WESTPORT

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    3.4- 3.9    06/05 AM    0.2/ 0.8     3        NONE
    5.0- 5.5    06/06 PM    1.8/ 2.2    4-6       NONE
    3.7- 4.2    07/06 AM    0.6/ 1.1     6        NONE
    3.5- 4.0    07/07 PM    0.2/ 0.7     8        NONE
    3.2- 3.7    08/07 AM    0.0/ 0.5    5-7       NONE
    3.2- 3.7    08/08 PM   -0.2/ 0.2    2-3       NONE

FALL RIVER

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    4.7- 5.2    06/05 AM    0.4/ 0.9     1        NONE
    6.2- 6.7    06/06 PM    1.8/ 2.2    2-3       NONE
    5.2- 5.7    07/06 AM    0.8/ 1.3     1        NONE
    5.1- 5.6    07/07 PM    0.5/ 1.0    1-2       NONE
    4.5- 5.0    08/07 AM    0.0/ 0.5     1        NONE
    4.7- 5.2    08/07 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE

NEW BEDFORD - OUTSIDE HURRICANE BARRIER

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    4.0- 4.5    06/05 AM    0.2/ 0.8     1        NONE
    5.2- 5.7    06/05 PM    1.6/ 2.0    1-2       NONE
    4.4- 4.9    07/06 AM    0.7/ 1.1    1-2       NONE
    4.0- 4.5    07/06 PM    0.4/ 0.9    1-4       NONE
    3.7- 4.2    08/07 AM    0.0/ 0.5     1        NONE
    3.6- 4.1    08/07 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE

MATTAPOISETT

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    4.0- 4.5    06/05 AM    0.2/ 0.7    1-2       NONE
    5.4- 5.9    06/05 PM    1.4/ 1.9     3        NONE
    4.7- 5.2    07/06 AM    0.7/ 1.1    1-3       NONE
    4.6- 5.1    07/06 PM    0.4/ 0.9    2-4       NONE
    4.0- 4.5    08/07 AM    0.0/ 0.5     1        NONE
    4.2- 4.7    08/07 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE

WAREHAM

     TOTAL
      TIDE      DAY/TIME     SURGE     WAVES      FLOOD
      /FT/                    /FT/      /FT/    CATEGORY
  -----------  ----------  ---------  -------  ----------
    4.0- 4.5    06/05 AM    0.1/ 0.6     1        NONE
    5.2- 5.7    06/05 PM    1.2/ 1.7    2-3       NONE
    4.7- 5.2    07/06 AM    0.7/ 1.1     1        NONE
    4.7- 5.2    07/06 PM    0.5/ 1.0    1-3       NONE
    4.2- 4.7    08/07 AM    0.0/ 0.5     1        NONE
    4.2- 4.7    08/07 PM   -0.2/ 0.2     1        NONE

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1009 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure will move west of New England Thursday and
Thursday night, bringing another round of heavy rainfall along
with areas of minor river flooding. Lingering showers beneath
an occluded low for Friday into Saturday, with some wet snow
perhaps for the high terrain. High pressure building into the
region Sunday into early next week. Dry conditions overall but
significantly warmer. An early taste of Summer is entirely
plausible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

1010 pm update...

Any breaks in the clouds fill back in over the next several
hours. Deep closed upper level low over the midwest will be
lifting to the northeast towards the Great Lakes by daybreak.
The result will be developing low level jet and the potential
for some warm advection showers to overspread interior southern
New England after 4 or 5 am. Low temps by daybreak will mainly
be in the middle to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday...

All signs continue to point to a significant rainfall event across
southern New England. Rainfall becomes widespread across the region
by noon.

Models continue to signal excellent low level moisture transport
from the Gulf of Mexico and SE U.S. coast into our region. Noting
nose of high PWATs moves in during the afternoon into evening hours,
on order of 1.0 to 1.5 inches, which is over highest recorded levels
for the date from SPC sounding climatology. That has not changed
much with this model cycle.

What remains a complicating factor will be the amount of convection
which can get going during the day. Strong low level inversion in
the sounding, with only elevated instability to work with. The strong
low level jet dynamics may be enough to compensate for the weak
instability.

Another factor for southeast MA will be how quickly mid level dry
air arrives, and shuts down the potential for heavy rainfall. Strong,
but occluding, low pressure to our west should force a dry slot across
southeastern MA towards evening, although the driest air doesn't
arrive until after midnight. Thus still expecting the heaviest rainfall
to be across the western half of southern New England. Showers will
also linger longest there Thursday night.

Rainfall forecast has not changed much from previous thinking. With
this additional heavy rainfall, rivers and streams will quickly respond
given all the previous rain already in the mainstem rivers. Will likely
see more locations reach minor flood. More details in the HYDROLOGY
section below.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*/ Highlights...

 - Cool, clammy Friday into Saturday, gradual improvement
 - Warming trend from Sunday onward beneath mainly high pressure
 - Warmest day Tuesday, uncertain forecast Wednesday onward

*/ Overview...

Slower pattern emerging. Upstream Pacific flow continues to
remain  progressive with a series of disturbances that
influence a broader troughing pattern into the W and Central
CONUS. With a rex-block pattern evolving off the Spain /
Portugal coast, a buckled pattern upstream over the Atlantic
promotes anomalous ridging into the E CONUS on the order of +2
standard deviations. Impressive warmth with a H85 anomaly of
+15C with persistent SW flow aloft round a Bermuda high, no
surprise of increasing confidence of warmer than average
temperatures per the Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook.
Overall looking at a potential lull of the active weather
pattern as of late with a possible early taste of Summer. Will
hit the details below.

*/ Discussion...

Friday and Saturday...

Beneath the lingering comma-head low, dreary, cool weather
prevails.  Lots of low clouds with a mix of showers / drizzle.
Plenty of low to mid level moisture trowaling around the low
along with weak cold air advection. Steepening lapse rates
coupled with individual vortmax's rotating through the region
with the cyclone gradually lifting N/E out of the region, add in
some diurnally driven support with daytime heating / peaks of
sunshine, decent NW flow aloft, looking at an environment that
supports scattered shower activity along with gusty winds.
Higher confidence in vicinity of the occluded low and up against
the W-slopes of high terrain, where specifically there is the
potential for wet snowflakes however not thinking much in the
way of accumulation. Likely PoPs. Highs upper 40s to low 50s,
lows in the 30s. Add in the winds, will feel some 5 to 10
degrees colder.

Sunday and beyond...

Anomalous warmth. The warm front surging N across the region
Sunday.  There's the possibility of some shower activity along
the convergent nose of warm-moist air parent with the front if
it undergoes ascent per mid-level impulse energy emerging out of
the W, however signals are not all entirely clear. What is more
certain per operational and ensemble solutions is a surge of
warmer air with H925 temperatures warming to +16C Tuesday. A
+15C H85 temperature anomaly along with a +2 standard deviation
in H5 heights with pronounced ridging, this may be a case where
edging towards warmest climatology is preferred. Record highs on
Tuesday, April 11th, are in the upper 70s. Can not rule out
that these may be broken. Couple of things to consider:
1.) wind direction, that is an interior SW or any sea-breezes
of note, and 2.) timing of a possible cold frontal boundary and
potential showery weather, whether clouds will be an issue,
whether the front becomes diffuse beneath the influence of the
offshore Bermuda ridge and drier air.

We'll prevail with a warming temperature trend into early next
week  and keep it mostly dry for the time being. Expect a
frontal boundary to sweep the region at some point mid to late
week, however feel that models are having a difficult time
handling the blocky pattern as noted in the OVERVIEW, inclusive
of the Bermuda High, along with a potential influential sub-
tropical low.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday Night/...Moderate confidence.

Overnight...
Any left over VFR conditions should lower to MVFR levels toward
daybreak. Otherwise, expect mainly MVFR conditions overnight
but localized IFR conditions will be possible. Some showers
should overspread western MA/northern CT after 9z.

Thursday...
OVC MVFR-IFR cigs. MVFR-IFR vsbys with -RA/RA, potential LIFR
with +RA. Risk of TSRA. Bulk of RA around 18-22z. E/SE winds
potentially gusts 30-35 kts especially for coastal terminals.
RA and wind trends diminish late.

Thursday Night...
Improving conditions overnight, more immediate for E New England
terminals after 0z. Winds shifting S still breezy with gusts up
around 25 kts for the S coast. RA concluding.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Looking at -RA moving into the terminal around
09-12z.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...Moderate confidence.

Friday into Saturday...

MVFR-IFR mix. Improving with time. Lower conditions holding out
the  longest for the high terrain. Southerly winds turning W/NW
while becoming breezy. -RA lingering with MVFR-IFR. Risk of -SN
for high terrain however not thinking much accumulation

Sunday into Monday...

VFR. Diminishing W winds becoming light with the possibility of
a  sea-breeze Sunday, becoming SW and increasing beginning
Monday. SCT low-end VFR decks possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday Night/...

7 pm update...No major changes to the forecast.

Tonight...High confidence.

While a weak ridge of high pressure will keep winds generally
below headline criteria through tonight, leftover east and
southerly swell will keep seas above 5 feet across the outer
coastal waters. Conditions across the outer RI coastal waters
may diminish below advisory thresholds for a time this evening,
but start to build right back up toward morning. With such a
brief window, decided to simply extend the Small Craft Advisory
into Thursday.

Thursday and Thursday Night...Moderate confidence.

E-SE winds will increase during the afternoon, shifting to the
south Thursday night. Tricky wind gust forecast. Strong
inversion should prevent the strongest winds from mixing down.
However, there could be wind gusts of 35-40 kt, especially
across the southeastern coastal waters. Do not have enough
confidence at this time to upgrade to Gale Warnings. Will
continue the Gale Watches for one more forecast cycle. Small
Craft Advisories extended for the other coastal waters.

Reduced visibilities expected in rain, which will be heavy at
times, and patchy fog. Scattered thunderstorms possible,
especially during the afternoon and evening. Conditions should
slowly improve from S-N overnight, but scattered showers will
linger.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...Moderate confidence.

Friday into Saturday...

Low will continue to churn across the interior round which
southerly winds will turn westerly remaining breezy throughout.
Near gale-force gusts around the Friday evening timeframe, a
lull into Saturday but should anticipate breezy westerly winds
for a period. Seas building 8 to 12 feet on the S/SE outer
waters. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES (SCAs) likely needed for the
period.

Sunday into Monday...

Building Bermuda high results in winds turning SW. Will see a
lull  on Sunday with winds becoming light that a sea breeze is
entirely possible along the coast. Should see wave action
conclude along with SCAs. Increasing SW winds into Monday which
could heighten wave action over the SE waters above 5 feet,
requiring SCAs. Forecast wind gusts up to 20 kts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A New River Flood Warning was issued for Wood River at Hope
Valley, which will crest around the flood stage of 5 feet this
morning. While it should drop back below flood stage, will have
to monitor the risk for it approach flood stage again with the
additional heavy rain on tap for Thursday.

The Taunton River at Bridgewater and Pawcatuck River at
Westerly are expected to remain in flood through the weekend
given yesterday's rainfall, and the additional heavy rainfall on
Thursday. Therefore, Flood Warnings remain in effect for these
two forecast locations.

The Pawtuxet River at Cranston has temporarily crested below
flood stage, but given the expected heavy rain on Thursday
appears that there is pretty good shot it climbs above flood
stage late Thursday. Therefore, have opted to continue the flood
warning.

The following web site has more details:

https:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=box

A second strong low will bring another swath of rainfall across
the region Thursday into Thursday night. Plume of tropical
moisture continues to migrate northward from the Gulf of Mexico,
with the potential of another 1 to 1.5 inches of rain as the
low passes west of the region. Model QPF amounts suggest that
rainfall could reach up to 1.8 inches across northern
Connecticut into south central and southwest Massachusetts.
There may even see scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
and evening with locally heavy rainfall.

This batch of rain will be on top of two heavy rainfall events
that have affected the region over the last several days. River
levels have risen substantially, with several locations
reaching minor flood stage across Rhode Island and southeast
Massachusetts. Several other locations will likely reach minor
flood over the next few days. Areas of poor drainage flooding
are also likely, mainly Thursday afternoon and night.

Flood watches continue across the region for Thursday through
Friday.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT Thursday through Friday evening for
     CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT Thursday through Friday evening for
     MAZ002>024-026.
RI...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT Thursday through Friday evening for
     RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
     for ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for
     ANZ231>234.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-
     237.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ250-
     254>256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ251.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Sipprell
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...Frank/Sipprell
MARINE...Sipprell/Belk
HYDROLOGY...Staff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Taunton MA
456 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-062100-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
456 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, all of
Massachusetts except Berkshire County, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256-062100-
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
456 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode Island
coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230-236-251-062100-
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
456 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Boston Harbor, Narragansett
Bay, Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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