Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
337 PM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight.

Non-seabreeze related convection seems to be setting up in two
east- west oriented bands in central Alabama. One was across our
northern counties, from near the KGWX radar site to near Gadsden.
The other was from near Demopolis to north/northwest of Auburn.
Movement was largely to the east, with just a slight southward
component. Will try to anticipate development through the rest of
the afternoon, and expected movement into the evening hours. Given
recent history, would expect the convection to last longer into
the evening compared to what is more typical in the summertime.

/61/

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Friday.

Synoptically, an upper ridge is spread across the Western US as a
trough dips down through the Great Lakes and into the Central
Appalachians. The current frontal boundary remains draped across
Southern AL and the Florida Panhandle early on Saturday as another
shortwave moves through the larger-scale trough and sends another
frontal boundary southward through the Tennessee Valley and into
Central AL by Saturday afternoon and evening. Models have been
trending weaker with this second frontal boundary, resulting in less
coverage of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. This is possibly due
to the current stalled frontal boundary preventing deeper moisture
return. Regardless, I am hesitant to lower PoPs below 40-45% due to
at least 1.70" PWATs working there way back in by late Saturday
afternoon. GFS and NAM microburst composites still hint at a chance
for some of these storms on Saturday to contain gusty winds. Will
once again hold off adding anything specific in the HWO due to
uncertainty in coverage.  By Sunday morning, this second frontal
boundary has begun to stall over Southern AL as well, limiting the
the best rain chances to our the southernmost counties.

Very little changes in the forecast for Monday as the stalled
frontal boundary is expected to remain just to our south. Best
chances of rain/thunderstorms will be in the afternoon for our
southernmost counties. The trough begins to flatten on Tuesday as
low-level ridging builds in across the the Southeast under zonal
flow to our north. This pattern sets in for the remainder of the
work-week giving our typical diurnal pattern with scattered
afternoon thunderstorms each day. Without a significant frontal
boundary to aid lift, I'll edge closer to 30% PoPs each afternoon
with only slight chance in the evening and overnight hours.

25/Owen

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Tried my best to anticipate when and where the showers and storms
would impact various TAF locations this afternoon. As of just
before 18z...looks like the most likely location early on will be
TCL, as an area of convection along and east of the MS/AL state
line was moving in TCL's general direction. Elsewhere, will make
TAF updates as needed if/when/where chances of storms become high
enough at any particular location.

Low level moisture off the mesoscale models suggest some low
cloud development overnight, especially around ANB/ASN and MGM.

/61/

.FIRE WEATHER...

Main trough axis slides through today with better than normal rain
chances for the counties between I-59 and I-85. Not a complete
washout but a good chance at seeing scattered thunderstorms.
Scattered showers and storms each afternoon/evening with the
typical summertime pattern. There are no fire weather concerns
due to summertime humidity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  88  68  88  67 /  20  40  20  10  10
Anniston    71  88  70  88  68 /  40  40  20  20  10
Birmingham  74  89  72  88  70 /  30  40  20  20  10
Tuscaloosa  73  90  72  89  70 /  30  40  30  20  10
Calera      73  89  72  88  71 /  40  40  30  20  10
Auburn      73  88  72  88  71 /  60  40  30  40  30
Montgomery  75  91  74  91  73 /  60  40  40  30  30
Troy        73  88  71  88  71 /  50  40  40  50  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
314 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-081115-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
314 AM CDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Isolated to scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible across
all of Central Alabama through 10 PM. The strongest activity may
result in straight line wind damage with up to 60 mph this afternoon
and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
this afternoon and early evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
413 PM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

ALZ038-047-072145-
Lee AL-Chambers AL-
413 PM CDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LEE AND SOUTHEASTERN CHAMBERS
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 413 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Huguley to near Auburn. Movement was east
at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Auburn, Opelika, Valley, Lanett, Smiths, Smiths Station, La Fayette,
Lakeview, Cusseta, Beulah, Beans Mill, Auburn University, River View,
Beauregard, Bleecker, Chambers County Lake, Huguley, Fairfax, Oak
Bowery and Griffen Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3251 8506 3247 8506 3247 8533 3241 8533
      3241 8543 3250 8544 3250 8549 3255 8562
      3291 8538 3293 8520 3286 8519 3285 8515
      3281 8517 3278 8512 3276 8514 3274 8511
      3269 8512 3266 8509 3265 8511 3251 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 272DEG 26KT 3286 8529 3254 8549

87/GRANTHAM

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