Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
644 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Tuesday.

Very unstable conditions have developed over central Alabama this
afternoon as surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s
to lower 80s, with cold air advection aloft as the upper trof
axis approaches from the west. An upper low centered over eastern
Missouri will track eastward overnight and push a trof axis into
north Alabama. Forcing ahead of trof axis will help maintain
convection development throughout the night despite loss of
daytime heating. Best rain chances overnight will be along and
north of I-20 with little or no rain expected south of I-85. The
upper trof axis will become aligned in an east to west direction
across central Alabama on Tuesday. Weak forcing along the trof
axis will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly
during the heating of the day. 0-6km Bulk Shear and mid level
lapse rates will be much lower on Tuesday and no severe storms
expected.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
Wednesday through Sunday.

Wednesday continues to look warm and drier as a 500 mb ridge
amplifies over the region ahead of yet another upper trough which
will affect our area on Thursday into Thursday night. Confidence
is slightly lower than 24 hours ago regarding the threat for
severe storms due to model inconsistency with the upper trough
and a less impressive warm sector. We will continue to maintain a
low-end threat for damaging winds, large hail, and maybe a few
brief tornadoes.

After a break on Friday and Saturday, the hits keep on coming.
Another strong storm system could impact the area late Sunday into
Monday. A severe weather threat cannot be ruled out, especially if
the system takes a more northerly track, reducing the chance of
coastal convection blocking the inland progression of instability.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Keeping VFR conditions through much of the evening with VCTS
mentioned across all northern terminals. Storms are scattered
right now, making it difficult to include TSRA at any specific
site. As we go into the overnight hours, expect CIGs to lower
to MVFR. Guidance has tried to bring in IFR CIGs and MVFR VIS in
during the overnight hours into the morning, but I'm not sold on
that occurring just yet. Winds should stay up just enough to
maintain mixing and prevent fog development. The exception is
with TOI, where winds could be a little lower, leading to the
potential for decoupling and lower VIS. Otherwise, gusty winds,
sometimes erratic depending on proximity of scattered storms
tonight into the overnight hours. Tomorrow, generally southerly
winds continue with CIGs improving back to VFR by the afternoon.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Central Alabama will remain in a warm and moist pattern through the
week, with the highest rain chances today and Thursday. Critical
fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  78  55  81  57 /  60  40  10  20  10
Anniston    61  78  57  82  58 /  50  40  10  20  10
Birmingham  62  79  59  83  60 /  60  40  10  20  10
Tuscaloosa  63  80  60  85  60 /  60  40  10  10  10
Calera      63  78  60  84  60 /  50  30  10  20  10
Auburn      61  77  60  83  59 /  20  30  10  20  10
Montgomery  63  81  61  86  59 /  20  30  10  10  10
Troy        61  81  60  86  58 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1006 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-290615-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
1006 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook Through Tonight.

There is a threat for severe storms overnight, with the potential
for hail up to quarter size, mainly along and northwest of a line
from Demopolis to Alabaster to Gadsden.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another threat for severe storms may come Thursday into Thursday
night across all of the forecast area. There is a potential for
damaging winds up to 60 mph, brief tornadoes, hail up to the size
of quarters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
overnight and again on Thursday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
851 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

ALZ027-028-036-037-280230-
Tallapoosa AL-Clay AL-Talladega AL-Coosa AL-
851 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL TALLADEGA...NORTHERN
TALLAPOOSA...NORTHEASTERN COOSA AND CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 851 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Logan Martin Lake to Bradford. Movement
was northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Oxford, Talladega, Alexander City, Sylacauga, Lineville, Ashland,
Goodwater, Kellyton, Lincoln, Munford, New Site, Waldo, Goldville,
Bradford, Barfield, Winterboro, Talladega Superspeedway, Hatchet,
Talladega Municipal Airport and Grant Town.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3292 8610 3349 8629 3351 8626 3349 8626
      3349 8624 3355 8619 3365 8603 3360 8602
      3359 8599 3358 8580 3354 8580 3347 8589
      3347 8578 3350 8576 3349 8564 3311 8565
      3311 8559 3308 8559
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 242DEG 35KT 3349 8623 3299 8608

32/Davis

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
859 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE ATTALLA            34.02N 86.09W
03/27/2017                   ETOWAH             AL   PUBLIC

            DAMAGE TO THE ROOF OF A LOCAL BUSINESS;
            METAL ROOFING BLOWN OFF.

&&

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
920 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S KINGSTON            33.53N 86.77W
03/27/2017                   JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            *** 1 INJ ***
            RELAYED REPORT OF A DOWNED TREE ONTO A CAR.
            1 INJURY.

&&

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
930 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E CLOVERDALE          33.60N 86.70W
03/27/2017                   JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED REPORT OF A LARGE TREE ONTO A HOUSE
            IN THE ROEBUCK AREA.

&&

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1035 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEEDS                   33.54N 86.55W
03/27/2017                   JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWNED ONTO A HOUSE IN LEEDS NEAR THE
            ELEMENTARY SCHOOL.

&&

GMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1042 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

ALZ011-014-280445-
Winston AL-Marion AL-
1042 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION AND NORTHERN WINSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1042 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Fairview to 6 miles southeast of Moulton.
Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Haleyville, Hackleburg, Double Springs, Addison, Houston
Recreational Area, Nesmith, Brushy Lake, Weston, Inmanfield,
Ashridge, Sardis, Brinn, Lake Buttahatchee, Needmore, Moreland,
Winston Free State Barn, Bear Creek, Posey Field Airport and Rankin
Fite Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8711 3417 8711 3408 8804 3415 8820
      3432 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 293DEG 30KT 3431 8827 3444 8719

32/Davis