Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
644 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Tuesday.

Very unstable conditions have developed over central Alabama this
afternoon as surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s
to lower 80s, with cold air advection aloft as the upper trof
axis approaches from the west. An upper low centered over eastern
Missouri will track eastward overnight and push a trof axis into
north Alabama. Forcing ahead of trof axis will help maintain
convection development throughout the night despite loss of
daytime heating. Best rain chances overnight will be along and
north of I-20 with little or no rain expected south of I-85. The
upper trof axis will become aligned in an east to west direction
across central Alabama on Tuesday. Weak forcing along the trof
axis will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly
during the heating of the day. 0-6km Bulk Shear and mid level
lapse rates will be much lower on Tuesday and no severe storms
expected.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
Wednesday through Sunday.

Wednesday continues to look warm and drier as a 500 mb ridge
amplifies over the region ahead of yet another upper trough which
will affect our area on Thursday into Thursday night. Confidence
is slightly lower than 24 hours ago regarding the threat for
severe storms due to model inconsistency with the upper trough
and a less impressive warm sector. We will continue to maintain a
low-end threat for damaging winds, large hail, and maybe a few
brief tornadoes.

After a break on Friday and Saturday, the hits keep on coming.
Another strong storm system could impact the area late Sunday into
Monday. A severe weather threat cannot be ruled out, especially if
the system takes a more northerly track, reducing the chance of
coastal convection blocking the inland progression of instability.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Keeping VFR conditions through much of the evening with VCTS
mentioned across all northern terminals. Storms are scattered
right now, making it difficult to include TSRA at any specific
site. As we go into the overnight hours, expect CIGs to lower
to MVFR. Guidance has tried to bring in IFR CIGs and MVFR VIS in
during the overnight hours into the morning, but I'm not sold on
that occurring just yet. Winds should stay up just enough to
maintain mixing and prevent fog development. The exception is
with TOI, where winds could be a little lower, leading to the
potential for decoupling and lower VIS. Otherwise, gusty winds,
sometimes erratic depending on proximity of scattered storms
tonight into the overnight hours. Tomorrow, generally southerly
winds continue with CIGs improving back to VFR by the afternoon.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Central Alabama will remain in a warm and moist pattern through the
week, with the highest rain chances today and Thursday. Critical
fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  78  55  81  57 /  60  40  10  20  10
Anniston    61  78  57  82  58 /  50  40  10  20  10
Birmingham  62  79  59  83  60 /  60  40  10  20  10
Tuscaloosa  63  80  60  85  60 /  60  40  10  10  10
Calera      63  78  60  84  60 /  50  30  10  20  10
Auburn      61  77  60  83  59 /  20  30  10  20  10
Montgomery  63  81  61  86  59 /  20  30  10  10  10
Troy        61  81  60  86  58 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
505 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-281315-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
505 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook Through Tonight.

There is a threat for severe storms today from 1 PM to 9 PM. This
will include the potential for hail up to ping pong ball size and
damaging winds up to 60 mph, mainly along and northwest of a line
from Demopolis to Alabaster to Gadsden. A smaller risk for hail up
to quarter size and isolated damaging winds could extend as far south
and east as Montgomery and Auburn.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another threat for severe storms may come Thursday into Thursday
night across all of the forecast area. There is a potential for
damaging winds up to 60 mph, brief tornadoes, hail up to the size
of quarters.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
today and again on Thursday.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
820 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE KINGSTON          33.54N 86.75W
03/27/2017                   JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED REPORT OF A TREE BLOWN DOWN ONTO A
            HOUSE.

&&

GMS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
829 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

ALZ018-020-280215-
Etowah AL-Cherokee AL-
829 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ETOWAH AND
SOUTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 829 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Noccalula Falls, or near Gadsden, moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gadsden, Rainbow City, Hokes Bluff, Centre, Glencoe, Leesburg, Reece
City, Tennala, Ballplay, Slackland, Gadsden Mall, Western Weiss Lake,
Noccalula Falls, Ball Flat, Weiss Dam, Gadsden Steam Plant, Big Wills
Creek, Crudup, Gadsden Water Works and Wilsonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3394 8605 3412 8608 3421 8566 3398 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 260DEG 26KT 3404 8598

32/Davis