Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Birmingham, AL

383 
WWUS54 KBMX 221946
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
146 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

ALC109-221955-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170122T2000Z/
Pike AL-
146 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PIKE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. A severe
thunderstorm warning continues for eastern portions of Bullock and
Macon Counties. 

A tornado watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for southeastern
and east central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3190 8567 3237 8569 3249 8576 3258 8580
      3258 8572 3260 8570 3258 8569 3258 8567
      3257 8566 3250 8549 3250 8544 3202 8543
      3199 8559 3191 8564
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 221DEG 64KT 3313 8543 3271 8536 3228 8553 

$$

ALC011-087-222000-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170122T2000Z/
Macon AL-Bullock AL-
146 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST
FOR EASTERN MACON AND EASTERN BULLOCK COUNTIES...

At 145 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Red Level to near Opelika to near Guerryton,
moving northeast at 75 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Tuskegee, Notasulga, Midway, Guerryton, Pickett, Lake Tuskegee,
Davisville, Society Hill, Tuskegee National Forest, Liberty City,
Creek Stand, Warriorstand, Moton Field Municipal Airport, Three
Notch, Uphapee Creek and I 85 Rest Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for southeastern
and east central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3190 8567 3237 8569 3249 8576 3258 8580
      3258 8572 3260 8570 3258 8569 3258 8567
      3257 8566 3250 8549 3250 8544 3202 8543
      3199 8559 3191 8564
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 221DEG 64KT 3313 8543 3271 8536 3228 8553 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Owen

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1120 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Another round of showers and thunderstorms today as an upper low
over Texas tracks eastward across Alabama this evening. The closed
upper low will deepen and trigger a surface low development across
south Alabama later this morning. This surface low will also
deepen as it tracks northeast across east Alabama. The track of
the surface low is very critical to determining the highest
tornado threat area. The southeast counties, mainly along and
south of I-85 still look like the prime area for tornado
formation today, and have elevated this area in our threat area
graphics. The surface low will track quickly northeast and the
severe threat will end fairly quickly once the surface low crosses
over into Georgia, sometime around 3 pm. This is a very dynamic
system and widespread showers and elevated thunderstorms expected
on the north and west side of the upper low. Temperatures near the
center of the 500mb upper low will be near -25 celsius, and steep
lapse rates could produce some large hail across the southeast
counties in the more vigorous convection, with small hail as far
north as I-20.

Cooler and more stable air will overspread all of central Alabama
this evening. Scattered to numerous showers will continue across
central Alabama tonight as the upper low center moves across the
area. A very tight surface pressure gradient will develop later
tonight as the surface low deepens and moves east of Alabama.
Sustained west to northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will likely
develop after midnight and last through Monday morning, and a wind
advisory may be issued later today. Monday will be a very chilly
day with brisk northwest winds and lingering clouds. Skies will
gradually clear from west to east Monday afternoon, and there may
be some lingering showers across east Alabama Monday morning.

Mostly clear and dry Monday night and Tuesday. A weak front will
pass through the area Wednesday and Wednesday night and bring some
scattered showers. Drier and slightly cooler conditions Thursday
through Saturday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Today will be another difficult day to forecast for aviation. A
strong low pressure system will be moving through Central AL
today with storms and rain building along the warm front as it
lifts northward through the afternoon. Hi-Res models have not been
handling the timing overly well this morning, trying to move the
warm front and rain/storms through quicker than is actually
occurring. Therefore, have slowed the progress of TSRA and RA in
the terminal forecasts. Storms have begun moving into the TOI and
MGM areas around 17z, and should progress northward during the
afternoon, impacting all TAF sites by late afternoon. Behind the
warm front and low pressure system, winds will become
northwesterly as light rain showers will persist through midnight
for Central AL. Behind the rain shield, gusty northwesterly winds
will be likely. Have issued a Wind Advisory for all of Central AL
from midnight tonight through 6:00pm Monday. Sustained winds
15-20kts with gusts up to 30-35kts possible.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Another round of showers and thunderstorms today, with heavy
rainfall at times. Much cooler and breezy tonight with showers
likely. Rain free conditions Monday and Tuesday. No fire weather
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     63  48  53  35  59 /  80  80  30   0   0
Anniston    64  50  55  37  60 /  80  80  30   0   0
Birmingham  64  49  56  36  61 /  80  80  20   0   0
Tuscaloosa  63  49  56  37  63 /  80  70  10   0   0
Calera      63  49  56  38  62 /  80  70  10   0   0
Auburn      64  51  57  40  61 /  70  60  20   0   0
Montgomery  66  51  60  39  64 /  70  50  10   0   0
Troy        68  50  59  39  64 /  70  50  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday for the
following counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...
Bullock...Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...
Cleburne...Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...
Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...
Marion...Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph...
Russell...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
632 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-231545-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
632 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 FROM
10 AM THROUGH 3 PM. THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS,
LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT AREA IS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED TODAY.