Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Birmingham, AL

631 
WWUS54 KBMX 221824 RRA
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1224 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

ALC047-221833-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170122T1900Z/
Dallas AL-
1224 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN DALLAS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. The severe
thunderstorm warning remains in effect for portions of Lowndes,
Autauga, and Chilton Counties.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for south central,
east central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3222 8688 3223 8681 3227 8686 3233 8685
      3235 8681 3248 8688 3264 8685 3300 8669
      3307 8661 3302 8652 3282 8646 3275 8638
      3275 8641 3241 8641 3241 8646 3234 8650
      3228 8648 3224 8641 3196 8641 3196 8660
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 211DEG 50KT 3299 8669 3271 8662 3252 8670 3225
8661 3196 8671

$$

ALC001-021-085-221900-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170122T1900Z/
Chilton AL-Lowndes AL-Autauga AL-
1224 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CST
FOR CENTRAL CHILTON...LOWNDES AND AUTAUGA COUNTIES...

At 1223 PM CST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Jemison to 6 miles southeast of Pooles Crossroads
to near Vida Junction to Lowndesboro to 7 miles west of Lowndes
County Airport, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Prattville, Millbrook, Clanton, Fort Deposit, Mosses, Hayneville,
Thorsby, Deatsville, Autaugaville, White Hall, Gordonville,
Billingsley, Lowndesboro, Benton, Logan, Pooles Crossroads, Vida
Junction, Lowndes County Airport, Verbena and Mitchell Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for south central,
east central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3222 8688 3223 8681 3227 8686 3233 8685
      3235 8681 3248 8688 3264 8685 3300 8669
      3307 8661 3302 8652 3282 8646 3275 8638
      3275 8641 3241 8641 3241 8646 3234 8650
      3228 8648 3224 8641 3196 8641 3196 8660
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 211DEG 50KT 3299 8669 3271 8662 3252 8670 3225
8661 3196 8671

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Owen

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1120 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Another round of showers and thunderstorms today as an upper low
over Texas tracks eastward across Alabama this evening. The closed
upper low will deepen and trigger a surface low development across
south Alabama later this morning. This surface low will also
deepen as it tracks northeast across east Alabama. The track of
the surface low is very critical to determining the highest
tornado threat area. The southeast counties, mainly along and
south of I-85 still look like the prime area for tornado
formation today, and have elevated this area in our threat area
graphics. The surface low will track quickly northeast and the
severe threat will end fairly quickly once the surface low crosses
over into Georgia, sometime around 3 pm. This is a very dynamic
system and widespread showers and elevated thunderstorms expected
on the north and west side of the upper low. Temperatures near the
center of the 500mb upper low will be near -25 celsius, and steep
lapse rates could produce some large hail across the southeast
counties in the more vigorous convection, with small hail as far
north as I-20.

Cooler and more stable air will overspread all of central Alabama
this evening. Scattered to numerous showers will continue across
central Alabama tonight as the upper low center moves across the
area. A very tight surface pressure gradient will develop later
tonight as the surface low deepens and moves east of Alabama.
Sustained west to northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will likely
develop after midnight and last through Monday morning, and a wind
advisory may be issued later today. Monday will be a very chilly
day with brisk northwest winds and lingering clouds. Skies will
gradually clear from west to east Monday afternoon, and there may
be some lingering showers across east Alabama Monday morning.

Mostly clear and dry Monday night and Tuesday. A weak front will
pass through the area Wednesday and Wednesday night and bring some
scattered showers. Drier and slightly cooler conditions Thursday
through Saturday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Today will be another difficult day to forecast for aviation. A
strong low pressure system will be moving through Central AL
today with storms and rain building along the warm front as it
lifts northward through the afternoon. Hi-Res models have not been
handling the timing overly well this morning, trying to move the
warm front and rain/storms through quicker than is actually
occurring. Therefore, have slowed the progress of TSRA and RA in
the terminal forecasts. Storms have begun moving into the TOI and
MGM areas around 17z, and should progress northward during the
afternoon, impacting all TAF sites by late afternoon. Behind the
warm front and low pressure system, winds will become
northwesterly as light rain showers will persist through midnight
for Central AL. Behind the rain shield, gusty northwesterly winds
will be likely. Have issued a Wind Advisory for all of Central AL
from midnight tonight through 6:00pm Monday. Sustained winds
15-20kts with gusts up to 30-35kts possible.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Another round of showers and thunderstorms today, with heavy
rainfall at times. Much cooler and breezy tonight with showers
likely. Rain free conditions Monday and Tuesday. No fire weather
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     63  48  53  35  59 /  80  80  30   0   0
Anniston    64  50  55  37  60 /  80  80  30   0   0
Birmingham  64  49  56  36  61 /  80  80  20   0   0
Tuscaloosa  63  49  56  37  63 /  80  70  10   0   0
Calera      63  49  56  38  62 /  80  70  10   0   0
Auburn      64  51  57  40  61 /  70  60  20   0   0
Montgomery  66  51  60  39  64 /  70  50  10   0   0
Troy        68  50  59  39  64 /  70  50  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday for the
following counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...
Bullock...Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...
Cleburne...Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...
Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...
Marion...Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph...
Russell...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
632 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

ALZ011>015-017>050-231545-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
632 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 FROM
10 AM THROUGH 3 PM. THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS,
LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT AREA IS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED TODAY.