Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 21, 2017Burleigh County, Morton County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 21, 2017, 10:24 PM CDT for Burleigh County, Morton County, North Dakota. It was in force for 66 min. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 21, 2017, 10:24 PM CDT (03:24 UTC)
Expired: Jul 21, 2017, 11:30 PM CDT
In force: 66 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 1.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Burleigh County, ND, Morton County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 21, 10:25 PM CDT	HAIL 1.75	1 Nnw Bismarck, ND
Jul 21, 10:25 PM CDT	HAIL 2.75	Mandan, ND	TENNIS TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL NEAR THE BALL FIELD ON 3RD STREET SW.
Jul 21, 10:40 PM CDT	HAIL 0.88	3 Sse Bismarck, ND	OBSERVED AT BISMARCK WFO LOCATED AT THE BISMARCK AIRPORT.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 1 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 21, 3:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	10 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 17 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2130 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -32 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1710 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 83 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 3.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

991 
WUUS53 KBIS 220324
SVRBIS
NDC015-059-220430-
/O.NEW.KBIS.SV.W.0099.170722T0324Z-170722T0430Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1024 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

The National Weather Service in Bismarck has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southwestern Burleigh County in south central North Dakota...
  Northeastern Morton County in south central North Dakota...

* Until 1130 PM CDT

* At 1024 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Mandan,
  moving southeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
           wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

* This severe thunderstorm will be near,
  St. Anthony around 1050 PM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
University Of Mary, Huff and Fort Abraham Lincoln State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4650 10086 4679 10108 4694 10072 4668 10044
      4663 10049 4663 10065 4661 10063 4659 10056
      4658 10057 4658 10059 4655 10057 4651 10061
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 321DEG 21KT 4678 10095 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ABELING

1 follow-up statement

380 
WWUS53 KBIS 220343
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1043 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

NDC015-059-220430-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-170722T0430Z/
Burleigh ND-Morton ND-
1043 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN BURLEIGH AND NORTHEASTERN MORTON COUNTIES...

At 1043 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles northeast
of St. Anthony, or 8 miles south of Bismarck, moving southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

this severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Burleigh and northeastern Morton Counties, including the
following locations: University Of Mary, Huff and Fort Abraham
Lincoln State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4650 10086 4679 10108 4694 10072 4668 10044
      4663 10049 4663 10065 4661 10063 4659 10056
      4658 10057 4658 10059 4655 10057 4651 10061
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 321DEG 21KT 4669 10085 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ABELING

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 21, 9:58 PM CDT, 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 21, 9:58 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
958 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Three distinct clusters of severe thunderstorms continue across
central ND as of 0245 UTC. We earlier expanded the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch and will likely have to consider extending it
in time for some counties before its scheduled 04 UTC expiration.
The environment remains characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg
and effective shear of 40-50 kt. Despite increasing CIN for
surface-based parcels, non-hydrostatic pressure perturbations
associated with already-established mesocyclones may persist for
some time, even if updrafts become more elevated with time.

Otherwise, also added patchy smoke to the forecast overnight in
southwest and south central ND given the abundance of smoke seen
on GOES-16 imagery moving east of Montana.

UPDATE Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

We refreshed hourly PoPs through mid evening with this update
based on observational trends. Attempts at convective initiation
have occurred along a density gradient (dewpoint discontinuity)
centered on Dunn County since 2145 UTC, but based on GOES-16
imagery it appears anvils have orphaned with that activity and
it's not clear deep initiation will indeed occur in that area.
Mesoscale analysis data suggests mean LCL-LFC relative humidity
values are only near 30 percent, which may be indicative of dry
air entrainment to the detriment of deep convection. Nonetheless,
we will continue to monitor that area in case we need to expand
the Severe Thunderstorm Watch further northwest. Otherwise, in
south central ND other cumulus continues to be agitated and per
the mesoscale analysis, MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is now largely
uncapped. Additional convective initiation may thus occur in the
next 90 minutes with an attendant severe risk, including the
potential for supercells initially. The mean LCL-LFC relative
humidity values in the RAP-based SPC mesoscale analysis are also
higher south of Bismarck, implying less potential for dry air
entrainment. However, the degree of remaining MLCIN is still
somewhat uncertain given satellite trends to this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Severe potential this afternoon and evening central ND, and
critical fire weather conditions southwest and south
central on Saturday highlight the short term forecast.

See the fire weather discussion below for details regarding
critical conditions southwest and south central Saturday
afternoon and evening.

Currently, ongoing thunderstorm activity that developed across
northwest and north central ND continued from the Devils Lake Basin
westward into Mercer and McLean counties. This is believed to be
associated with an upper level impulse moving east across the state
today. At the surface, low pressure was near Watford City/Stanley
area of western Lake Sakakawea...with drier northwest winds to its
west and humid southerly to easterly winds to its east. A surface
trough extending from the low into central SD is forecast to move
eastward slowly tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along
this boundary, with the high res CAMs indicating south central ND
and into the James Valley as the most likely area for increasing
thunderstorm coverage as the CAP erodes with temperatures rising
into the 90s.

MU Cape values of around 3000 J/kg in current mesoscale analysis
with generally 40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear.

A a severe thunderstorm watch will be in effect through much of this
evening south central to the James Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

A progressive pattern dominates the long term with occasional upper
level shortwaves in the westerlies moving across North Dakota. One
such wave on Monday afternoon/night will bring a chance of
thunderstorms to our area. Another wave will bring a chance
Wednesday/Thursday as well.

Highs in the 85 to 95 range Monday, and in the 80s for the rest of
next week is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 958 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Scattered thunderstorms are expected in south central ND this
evening with an attendant risk of sub-VFR conditions, large hail,
and damaging winds. KBIS and KJMS could be impacted. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected overnight and on Saturday. A drying
northwest wind with gusts to 30 kt is expected Saturday behind a
cold front that will cross the area tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

For Saturday, afternoon humidity between 15 and 20 percent,
northwest winds sustained at 20 to 25 mph with higher gusts, and
temperatures in the 80s are forecast across southwest and south
central North Dakota Saturday afternoon. When combined with dry
fuels, critical fire weather conditions are possible. A Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Saturday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NDZ020-031>035-040>046.

&&

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS
FIRE WEATHER...JV

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 21, 9:38 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
938 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-230245-
Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Morton-
Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
938 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 /838 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across central North
Dakota this evening, generally along and east of U.S. Highway 83.
Large, destructive hail to 2 inches in diameter or greater,
damaging winds to 75 mph, and a tornado or two are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday across
southwest and south central North Dakota. A Fire Weather Watch is
in effect.

There is chance of thunderstorms Monday night, and again on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>033-040-041-043-044-230245-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-
Bowman-Adams-
938 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 /838 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday across
southwest and south central North Dakota. A Fire Weather Watch is
in effect.

There is chance of thunderstorms Monday night, and again on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

CJS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 21, 9:19 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
919 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     HAIL             MAXBASS                 48.73N 101.14W
07/21/2017  M1.00 INCH       BOTTINEAU          ND   PUBLIC

&&

ZH

Special weather statement, Jul 21, 9:24 PM CDT, 1 hour before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
924 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

NDZ037-048-220300-
La Moure ND-Stutsman ND-
924 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LAMOURE AND
SOUTHEASTERN STUTSMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 923 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jud, or 18 miles northwest of Edgeley, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Adrian and Montpelier around 1000 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Nortonville, Millarton
and Alfred.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4642 9901 4663 9902 4680 9859 4650 9843
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 252DEG 18KT 4659 9892

EDWARDS

Local storm report, Jul 21, 9:27 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
927 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     HAIL             KRAMER                  48.69N 100.71W
07/21/2017  E1.00 INCH       BOTTINEAU          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL CONTINUES.

&&

JV

Special weather statement, Jul 21, 9:29 PM CDT, 55 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
929 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

NDZ051-220300-
Dickey ND-
929 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN DICKEY COUNTY UNTIL 1000
PM CDT...

At 928 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Forbes, or 14 miles west of Ellendale, moving east at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ellendale, Fullerton, Forbes and Monango.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4617 9900 4622 9831 4594 9832 4594 9901
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 265DEG 19KT 4599 9882

EDWARDS

Local storm report, Jul 21, 10:13 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1013 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S MERRICOURT          46.18N 98.76W
07/21/2017  E60 MPH          DICKEY             ND   PUBLIC

            60 MPH WINDS WERE ACCOMPANIED BY 1 INCH
            HAIL.

&&

KING

Local storm report, Jul 21, 10:17 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1017 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             3 SSE MERRICOURT        46.16N 98.74W
07/21/2017  E1.25 INCH       DICKEY             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KING

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 21, 7:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bottineau, Burke, Renville	57 min
Jul 21, 7:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons, Logan, McIntosh	56 min
Jul 21, 7:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	McLean	29 min
Jul 21, 8:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	McLean	26 min
Jul 21, 8:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	LaMoure, Logan, Stutsman	65 min
Jul 21, 8:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry, McLean, Sheridan, Ward	65 min
Jul 21, 8:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bottineau, Renville	61 min
Jul 21, 8:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, McLean, Oliver	59 min
Jul 21, 8:48 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Oliver	27 min
Jul 21, 9:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bottineau, McHenry, Pierce, Rolette	66 min
Jul 21, 9:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh	62 min
Jul 21, 9:24 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	LaMoure	36 min
Jul 21, 9:29 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Dickey	31 min
Jul 21, 9:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry, Pierce, Ward	65 min
Jul 21, 9:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dickey, LaMoure	61 min
Jul 21, 9:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Morton, Oliver	58 min
Jul 21, 10:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry, Pierce	33 min
Jul 21, 10:16 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Pierce	29 min
Jul 21, 10:36 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	LaMoure	24 min
Jul 21, 10:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	LaMoure	32 min
Jul 21, 10:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Pierce	54 min
Jul 21, 10:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Emmons, Morton	68 min
Jul 21, 11:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	LaMoure	15 min
Jul 21, 11:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Wells	53 min
Jul 21, 11:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Wells	51 min
Jul 21, 11:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Logan, McIntosh	64 min
Jul 22, 4:22 AM CDT	Red Flag Warning	BIS	Adams, Billings, Bowman, Golden Valley, Grant, Hettinger and 3 more	17 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2017 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.