Severe Thunderstorm Warning 90, NWS Bismarck, ND

826 
WWUS53 KBIS 220127 RRA
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
827 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

NDC049-101-220136-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-170722T0215Z/
Ward ND-McHenry ND-
827 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WARD AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MCHENRY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area, therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central and north central North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4756 10039 4772 10125 4785 10109 4785 10036
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 275DEG 36KT 4776 10100 

$$

NDC055-083-220215-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-170722T0215Z/
Sheridan ND-McLean ND-
827 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN SHERIDAN AND NORTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES...

At 826 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles southeast of
Benedict, or 20 miles east of Garrison, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Butte around 850 PM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Ruso,
Krueger Lake, Strawberry Lake and Kief.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4756 10039 4772 10125 4785 10109 4785 10036
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 275DEG 36KT 4776 10100 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ABELING

525 
WWUS53 KBIS 220216
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
916 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

NDC055-083-220226-
/O.EXP.KBIS.SV.W.0090.000000T0000Z-170722T0215Z/
Sheridan ND-McLean ND-
916 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN SHERIDAN AND
NORTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central and north central North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4756 10039 4772 10125 4785 10109 4785 10036
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 275DEG 38KT 4772 10028 

$$

ABELING

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
603 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

We refreshed hourly PoPs through mid evening with this update
based on observational trends. Attempts at convective initiation
have occurred along a density gradient (dewpoint discontinuity)
centered on Dunn County since 2145 UTC, but based on GOES-16
imagery it appears anvils have orphaned with that activity and
it's not clear deep initiation will indeed occur in that area.
Mesoscale analysis data suggests mean LCL-LFC relative humidity
values are only near 30 percent, which may be indicative of dry
air entrainment to the detriment of deep convection. Nonetheless,
we will continue to monitor that area in case we need to expand
the Severe Thunderstorm Watch further northwest. Otherwise, in
south central ND other cumulus continues to be agitated and per
the mesoscale analysis, MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is now largely
uncapped. Additional convective initiation may thus occur in the
next 90 minutes with an attendant severe risk, including the
potential for supercells initially. The mean LCL-LFC relative
humidity values in the RAP-based SPC mesoscale analysis are also
higher south of Bismarck, implying less potential for dry air
entrainment. However, the degree of remaining MLCIN is still
somewhat uncertain given satellite trends to this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Severe potential this afternoon and evening central ND, and
critical fire weather conditions southwest and south
central on Saturday highlight the short term forecast.

See the fire weather discussion below for details regarding
critical conditions southwest and south central Saturday
afternoon and evening.

Currently, ongoing thunderstorm activity that developed across
northwest and north central ND continued from the Devils Lake Basin
westward into Mercer and McLean counties. This is believed to be
associated with an upper level impulse moving east across the state
today. At the surface, low pressure was near Watford City/Stanley
area of western Lake Sakakawea...with drier northwest winds to its
west and humid southerly to easterly winds to its east. A surface
trough extending from the low into central SD is forecast to move
eastward slowly tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along
this boundary, with the high res CAMs indicating south central ND
and into the James Valley as the most likely area for increasing
thunderstorm coverage as the CAP erodes with temperatures rising
into the 90s.

MU Cape values of around 3000 J/kg in current mesoscale analysis
with generally 40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear.

A a severe thunderstorm watch will be in effect through much of this
evening south central to the James Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

A progressive pattern dominates the long term with occasional upper
level shortwaves in the westerlies moving across North Dakota. One
such wave on Monday afternoon/night will bring a chance of
thunderstorms to our area. Another wave will bring a chance
Wednesday/Thursday as well.

Highs in the 85 to 95 range Monday, and in the 80s for the rest of
next week is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Scattered thunderstorms are expected in south central ND this
evening with an attendant risk of sub-VFR conditions, large hail,
and damaging winds. KBIS and KJMS could be impacted. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected overnight and on Saturday. A drying
northwest wind with gusts to 30 kt is expected Saturday behind a
cold front that will cross the area tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

For Saturday, afternoon humidity between 15 and 20 percent,
northwest winds sustained at 20 to 25 mph with higher gusts, and
temperatures in the 80s are forecast across southwest and south
central North Dakota Saturday afternoon. When combined with dry
fuels, critical fire weather conditions are possible. A Fire Weather
Watch remains in effect for Saturday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for NDZ020-031>035-040>046.

&&

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS
FIRE WEATHER...JV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
612 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

NDZ025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-222315-
Foster-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
612 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 /512 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across south central
North Dakota this evening, generally along and east of U.S.
Highway 83 and south of Highway 200. Large, destructive hail to
2 inches in diameter or greater, damaging winds to 75 mph, and a
tornado or two are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday across
south central North Dakota. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect.

There is chance of thunderstorms Monday night, and again on
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this evening across central North
Dakota. Please report severe weather to the National Weather
Service in Bismarck at 701-223-4582.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>033-040-041-043-044-222315-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
612 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017 /512 PM MDT Fri Jul 21 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected across
southwest North Dakota early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday across
southwest and south central North Dakota. A Fire Weather Watch is
in effect.

There is chance of thunderstorms Monday night, and again on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

CJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
645 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

NDZ046-050-220030-
McIntosh ND-Emmons ND-
645 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MCINTOSH AND
SOUTHEASTERN EMMONS COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 645 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Westfield, or 16 miles south of Linton, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Strasburg, Hague, Westfield and Hull.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central and southeastern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4609 10031 4617 10015 4609 9976 4594 9989
      4594 10010
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 308DEG 16KT 4604 10011

EDWARDS/KING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
659 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

NDZ002-220030-
Burke ND-
659 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Portal, or 15 miles northwest of Bowbells, moving east
at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Portal, Flaxton and Northgate.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4900 10203 4881 10202 4889 10254 4900 10256
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 265DEG 35KT 4899 10244

HARGROVE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
730 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     HAIL             1 NW NORTHGATE          49.00N 102.28W
07/21/2017  E1.00 INCH       BURKE              ND   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

ZH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
746 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

NDZ019-021-220115-
Mercer ND-McLean ND-
746 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL MCLEAN AND
NORTHEASTERN MERCER COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 745 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Stanton, or 16 miles northeast of Beulah, moving
east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stanton, Riverdale, Pick City and Lake Sakakawea State Park.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4728 10159 4753 10160 4753 10121 4728 10118
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 269DEG 25KT 4740 10149

ABELING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
749 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             7 N HAGUE               46.13N 100.01W
07/21/2017  E1.75 INCH       EMMONS             ND   PUBLIC

            THE DURATION OF THE HAIL EVENT WAS 10
            MINUTES.

&&

KING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
804 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

NDZ011-021-220130-
Ward ND-McLean ND-
804 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WARD AND
NORTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 804 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Max, or 11 miles northeast of Garrison, moving east at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Benedict around 815 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Ruso and Strawberry
Lake.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4785 10097 4785 10085 4779 10082 4767 10088
      4773 10150 4779 10141 4787 10141 4789 10097
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 273DEG 42KT 4780 10131

ABELING