Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 20, 2017Billings County, Dunn County, Stark County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 20, 2017, 4:05 PM MDT for Billings County, Dunn County, Stark County, North Dakota. It was in force for 55 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 20, 2017, 4:05 PM MDT (22:05 UTC)
Expired: Jul 20, 2017, 5:00 PM MDT
In force: 55 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

Counties Billings County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Stark County, ND

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 166 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 20, 4:26 PM MDT	HAIL 1	2 W Dickinson, ND	INTERSTATE AT EXIT 56.
Jul 20, 4:42 PM MDT	HAIL 1.75	Dickinson, ND	RELAYED THROUGH STATE RADIO.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 21 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 20, 2:50 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 171 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 24 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -373 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1690 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 31 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 107 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

841 
WUUS53 KBIS 202205
SVRBIS
NDC007-025-089-202300-
/O.NEW.KBIS.SV.W.0077.170720T2205Z-170720T2300Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
405 PM MDT THU JUL 20 2017

The National Weather Service in Bismarck has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southern Dunn County in southwestern North Dakota...
  Southern Billings County in southwestern North Dakota...
  Stark County in southwestern North Dakota...

* Until 500 PM MDT

* At 405 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles south of
  Belfield, or 18 miles west of Dickinson, moving northeast at 60
  mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
           tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
           roofs, and outbuildings. 

* This severe thunderstorm will be near,
  South Heart around 415 PM MDT. 
  Dickinson around 425 PM MDT. 
  Marshall around 450 PM MDT. 

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Hirschville, Fryburg, Schefield, Lefor, New Hradec and Dickinson
Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4663 10333 4688 10354 4722 10277 4725 10233
      4663 10234
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 230DEG 50KT 4680 10315 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

VINING

1 follow-up statement

143 
WWUS53 KBIS 202235
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
435 PM MDT THU JUL 20 2017

NDC007-025-089-202300-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-170720T2300Z/
Dunn ND-Billings ND-Stark ND-
435 PM MDT THU JUL 20 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHERN DUNN...SOUTHERN BILLINGS AND STARK COUNTIES...

At 434 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Dickinson, 
moving east at 45 mph. Other severe thunderstorms were located 
southwest of South Heart, and west of Hirschville.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Dickinson, Belfield, South Heart, Gladstone, Taylor, Marshall,
Fryburg, Hirschville, Schefield, Lefor, New Hradec and Dickinson
Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4663 10333 4688 10354 4722 10277 4725 10233
      4663 10234
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 250DEG 39KT 4691 10271 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

VINING

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 20, 2:54 PM MDT, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 2:54 PM MDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
354 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse sliding eastward
through Montana over the axis of a southern plains high. At the
surface a deepening low was found over southeastern Montana with
strong southerly flow centered over the Montana/North Dakota
border. Steep mid-level lapse rates, surface dew points reaching
the low 60s, and cross-boundary effective bulk shear in the 40-50
knot range has built an environment ample for supercells across
western North Dakota. Currently convection has initiated in an
area of 850 mb warm air advection over the northwestern corner of
the state. Convection-allowing models have consistently depicted
further development along a surface convergence zone over far
western North Dakota where a cumulus field has started to
develop. With the strong deep layer shear profile and inverted V
signatures on the western forecast soundings, large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threats for any storm that forms
in this area, especially early in its life cycle. A non-zero
tornado risk does exist, highlighted by the SPC Day One update.
Convective activity will shift eastward into the evening hours
with likelihood for severe modes decreasing as storms move into
central North Dakota. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through the overnight hours, especially north central on the nose
of a strengthening low level jet.

Friday...a closed upper level low will meander east over the
southern Canadian Prairie, shifting a surface boundary eastward
through the state. A seasonably moist warm sector and strong bulk
shear values will allow for another possible round of severe
weather, especially for central and eastern North Dakota. The 850
mb thermal ridge axis stays centered over the upper high plains
until later in the evening, keeping high temperatures in the 80s
and 90s across the state.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

As the previously mentioned Canadian low exits the area early
Saturday, flow shifts to the northwest with a surface high
moving in, leading to a dry post-frontal environment and gusty
surface winds. 12Z global model runs mostly agree on northwesterly
flow shifting out by the beginning of the week, showing signals
of a somewhat active pattern and above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across western and central ND this
afternoon. However, thunderstorms may develop across western
ND along a surface pressure trough this afternoon, and could
then move into central ND by this evening (although we are not
confident they will survive that far eastward). A few strong to
severe thunderstorms may be possible with large hail and damaging
winds.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AE
LONG TERM...AE
AVIATION...JV

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 20, 1:37 PM MDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
237 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045-211945-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Slope-
Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-
237 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017 /137 PM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible across western into portions of
central North Dakota this afternoon into this evening. The main
threat would be large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms are possible across central North Dakota on
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.
Spotter activation may be needed again on Friday over central
North Dakota.

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051-211945-
Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Burleigh-
Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
237 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into this
evening. Some storms may become strong, with some isolated severe
storms possible. If a storm becomes severe, large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Severe thunderstorms are possible across central North Dakota on
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters could be needed tonight, and again Friday afternoon and
evening.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 12:47 PM MDT, 3 hours 18 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
147 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

NDZ009-201930-
Williams-
147 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WILLIAMS COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM CDT...

At 147 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles west of
Williston, moving east at 40 mph.

Winds gusts to 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Williston, Ray, Epping, Bonetrail, Wheelock, White Tail Bay
Recreation Area, Lewis And Clark State Park, Spring Brook and
Blacktail Lake.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4843 10404 4852 10308 4813 10301 4814 10304
      4813 10309 4815 10310 4813 10321 4809 10325
      4809 10359 4811 10361 4812 10359 4813 10359
      4811 10364 4812 10369 4810 10374 4810 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 268DEG 37KT 4822 10387

HEINERT

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 1:31 PM MDT, 2 hours 34 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
231 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

NDZ002-009-010-017-202015-
McKenzie ND-Mountrail ND-Williams ND-Burke ND-
231 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL BURKE...
NORTHEASTERN MCKENZIE...EAST CENTRAL WILLIAMS AND WESTERN MOUNTRAIL
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 229 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms from
7 miles southeast of Ray, to 5 miles northwest of Keene, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Stanley, New Town, Tioga, Ray, Powers Lake, Ross, Lostwood, Belden,
Van Hook Park, 4 Bears Lodge, White Earth, Keene, White Earth Bay
Recreation Area, Charlson, White Tail Bay Recreation Area and Tobacco
Garden Bay Recreation Area.

If you are on or near Lake Sakakawea, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Do not be caught on the
water in a thunderstorm.

Campers should move to a sturdy shelter until these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4792 10318 4832 10319 4866 10243 4794 10214
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 235DEG 37KT 4829 10301

VINING

Local storm report, Jul 20, 3:03 PM MDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
403 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             7 E SATHER DAM          47.67N 103.65W
07/20/2017  E1.00 INCH       MCKENZIE           ND   PUBLIC

            ALSO ESTIMATED 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS. MOSTLY
            PEA SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW AS BIG AS QUARTERS.
            HAIL LASTED ABOUT 2 MINUTES.

&&

ZH

Local storm report, Jul 20, 3:48 PM MDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
448 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     HAIL             10 S WATFORD CITY       47.66N 103.28W
07/20/2017  E1.25 INCH       MCKENZIE           ND   PUBLIC

            MOSTLY QUARTERS WITH SOME HALF DOLLARS.

&&

ZH

Local storm report, Jul 20, 3:50 PM MDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
450 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     HAIL             9 E SATHER DAM          47.68N 103.61W
07/20/2017  E1.00 INCH       MCKENZIE           ND   PUBLIC

            A FEW QUARTERS BUT MOSTLY PEAS. 30-40 MPH
            WINDS.

&&

ZH

Special weather statement, Jul 20, 3:56 PM MDT, 9 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
456 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

NDZ005-012-013-202245-
McHenry ND-Rolette ND-Pierce ND-
456 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PIERCE...NORTHEASTERN
MCHENRY AND SOUTHEASTERN ROLETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 455 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southeast of Denbigh, or 23 miles west of Rugby, moving east at
55 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rugby, Towner, Denbigh, Wolford, Barton, Berwick, Mylo and Nanson.

LAT...LON 4837 9949 4837 9984 4826 9985 4810 10062
      4839 10063 4871 9951
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 252DEG 48KT 4827 10048

ABELING

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 20, 3:59 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Pierce	31 min
Jul 20, 4:36 AM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Pierce	24 min
Jul 20, 12:47 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Williams	43 min
Jul 20, 1:31 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Mountrail	44 min
Jul 20, 2:15 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie	60 min
Jul 20, 2:49 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, McKenzie	56 min
Jul 20, 3:19 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, McKenzie, McLean, Mountrail	56 min
Jul 20, 3:27 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Golden Valley, Slope, Stark	63 min
Jul 20, 3:56 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Pierce	49 min
Jul 20, 4:17 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, McLean, Mercer	58 min
Jul 20, 4:33 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Adams, Bowman, Hettinger, Slope	57 min
Jul 20, 5:01 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Morton, Stark	59 min
Jul 20, 5:13 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean, Mercer, Morton, Oliver, Stark	33 min
Jul 20, 5:29 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Adams, Bowman, Grant, Hettinger, Slope, Stark	61 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2017 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.