Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Bismarck, ND

200 
WWUS53 KBIS 042351
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
651 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NDC015-043-050030-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-170705T0030Z/
Kidder ND-Burleigh ND-
651 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KIDDER AND SOUTHEASTERN BURLEIGH COUNTIES...

At 651 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles northeast of
Sterling, or 13 miles west of Steele, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Steele, Sterling and Driscoll. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4694 10040 4715 10011 4710 9981 4687 9987
      4663 9991 4663 10024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 233DEG 24KT 4692 10017 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SIMOSKO

886 
WWUS53 KBIS 050023
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
723 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NDC015-050032-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-170705T0030Z/
Burleigh ND-
723 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BURLEIGH COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4698 10007 4698 10008 4715 10011 4710 9981
      4687 9987 4663 9991 4664 10008
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 234DEG 28KT 4706 9988 

$$

NDC043-050030-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-170705T0030Z/
Kidder ND-
723 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KIDDER COUNTY...

At 722 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Robinson, or 14 miles north of Steele, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

this severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Kidder County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4698 10007 4698 10008 4715 10011 4710 9981
      4687 9987 4663 9991 4664 10008
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 234DEG 28KT 4706 9988 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SIMOSKO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
601 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 534 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Thunderstorms have developed over south central ND and are moving
to the southeast. Strongest storms in the south central have
developed in a localized area of cape to the north of Bismarck.
Updated pops based on latest radar analysis.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Hot weather will continue through Wednesday, along with a chance
of thunderstorms.

Scattered, surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop in
the 20 to 23 UTC time frame from Hettinger northeastward toward
the Bismarck/Mandan area. That area is favored for initiation on
the nose of the low-level thermal ridge, immediately ahead a pre-
frontal wind shift, and in advance of the weak mid-level impulse
implied by the area of enhanced cloudiness moving from southeast
MT into southwest ND as of 19 UTC. Pre-convective MLCAPE ranges
from 1000 J/kg at Hettinger, to 2000 J/kg at Bismarck, and 3000
J/kg at Jamestown. The degree of bouyancy, driven in part by steep
low- and mid-level lapse rates, coupled with weak, but veering
winds aloft will be sufficient for a few marginally-severe storms
with hail and gusty winds. However, overall, the risk will be kept
in check by weak deep-layer wind shear, with effective shear
magnitudes less than 25 kt. CAMs through the 17 UTC HRRR support
this scenario with maximum updraft helicity values generally less
than 50 m2/s2 as convection moving eastward, past the Missouri
River by 00 UTC, and exiting the James River valley by 06 UTC.

The weak cold front moving southward this afternoon is expected to
stall along the ND/SD border tonight, then return northeastward as
a warm front Wednesday afternoon. A strong thermal ridge will once
again flex its muscles eastward into western ND behind that front
with 850 mb temperatures of 26 to 28 C from Williston to Bismarck
and values around 30 C in southwest ND. Forecast soundings show an
impressively-deep well-mixed layer to almost 600 mb, all of which
supports highs around 100 F in western and south central ND. Note
that record highs are closer to 110 for July 5th, and thus should
be safe given currently-forecast thermal fields. The 12 UTC NAM
appears reasonable with its low-level dewpoint forecasts east of
the north-south oriented warm front given observed trends both
ahead of and behind that boundary today. Thus, we expect surface
dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s F in central ND Wednesday
afternoon and evening in support of weakly-capped MLCAPE upwards
of 3000 J/kg. Models unanimously agree on significantly-stronger
winds aloft by then with 0-6-km wind shear around 45 kt along with
notable anvil-level flow. Forecast soundings from the 12 UTC NAM
are therefore strong matches to environments which have produced
significant hailstones over 2 inches in diameter. That being said,
this threat is conditional on convective initiation, which is not
a sure bet given weak mid-level height rises at 500 mb during peak
heating. We do, however, believe that high-based, initially-weak
convection could emanate from the intensely-heated air mass in
western ND by late afternoon, then intensify as it crosses the
warm frontal zone in central ND. Moreover, glancing influence from
a weak impulse crossing southern Canada could also aide convective
initiation in north central ND by Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation will be
the theme through the long term forecast period. Amplification of
the strong 500 mb ridge centered over the western U.S. late this
week will allow somewhat cooler northwest trajectories to develop
over our region, resulting in highs mainly in the 80s F Thursday
and Friday. However, global ensemble guidance continues to show
the ridge shifting back eastward beginning this weekend with yet
another period of potential 100 degree weather in the offing by
the early to middle part of next week, especially if the 00 and 12
UTC ECMWF runs have anything to say about it. It's worth noting
that the vast majority of recent deterministic GFS cycles have
been on the far cold edge of 850 mb temperatures from its ensemble
and so its numbers may be negatively-influencing blended forecast
guidance. Finally, CIPS analog guidance also suggests a generally
dry period, as expected with only weak shortwave troughs rounding
the 500 mb ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 534 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Scattered thunderstorms south central should likely be out of KBIS
before the 00Z taf issuance. Otherwise maybe a thunderstorm later
this evening around KJMS but will likely just add a vcts for a few
hours. No other concerns at this time with VFR conditions expected
through the forecast period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...TWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
608 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

NDZ020-022-023-025-034>037-041-042-044>048-050-051-052315-
Oliver-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Hettinger-Grant-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
608 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 /508 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will move out of far southwest and across
south central North Dakota this afternoon, and east into the James
River valley this evening. A few of the storms could be strong to
severe with hail up to the size of quarters and wind gusts as
high as 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Still hot for Wednesday. A chance of thunderstorms late Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday evening in central North Dakota. If any
storms develop, they could become severe with large hail and
damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters could be needed in a few locations this
afternoon and evening.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031>033-040-043-052315-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-
Stark-Slope-Bowman-
608 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 /508 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Still hot for Wednesday. A chance of thunderstorms late Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday evening, mainly in central North Dakota.
If any storms develop, they could become severe with large hail
and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
353 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NDZ034-042115-
Morton ND-
353 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MORTON COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

At 347 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of St. Anthony, or 20 miles southwest of Mandan,
moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Morton
County.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4648 10122 4664 10117 4659 10085 4642 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 284DEG 14KT 4656 10109

SIMOSKO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
436 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NDZ042-045-042215-
Grant ND-Sioux ND-
436 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SIOUX AND
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT/415 PM MDT/...

At 435 PM CDT/335 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles northwest of
Shields to near Watauga. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with these storms. Heavy rain,
small hail and frequent lightning is also expected.

Locations impacted include...
Selfridge, Shields, Raleigh, St. Gertrude and Porcupine.

Seek shelter inside a building or vehicle if you are in the path of
these storms.

&&

LAT...LON 4638 10152 4633 10105 4628 10105 4630 10100
      4632 10101 4631 10099 4632 10098 4629 10067
      4594 10091 4595 10166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 292DEG 20KT 4630 10133 4596 10155

CJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
508 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NDZ034-042245-
Morton ND-
508 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MORTON COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

At 508 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Flasher, or 24 miles south of Mandan, moving east at 15
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Anthony.

Seek shelter inside a building or vehicle if you are in the path of
this storm.

&&

LAT...LON 4639 10108 4651 10115 4668 10084 4641 10070
      4640 10088 4641 10088 4640 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 249DEG 11KT 4648 10103

CJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
524 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NDZ035-042315-
Burleigh ND-
524 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL BURLEIGH COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 523 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Lake Harmon, or 9 miles north of Mandan, moving east at
25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Double Ditch Indian Village.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4692 10091 4700 10090 4698 10054 4692 10048
      4688 10056
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 277DEG 21KT 4695 10082

SIMOSKO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
605 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             6 NNE BISMARCK          46.89N 100.73W
07/04/2017  E1.00 INCH       BURLEIGH           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR.

&&

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
621 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     HAIL             5 NNW BISMARCK          46.88N 100.81W
07/04/2017  E0.88 INCH       BURLEIGH           ND   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

CJS