Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Bismarck, ND

972 
WWUS53 KBIS 180128
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
828 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

NDC023-105-180215-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-170818T0215Z/
Williams ND-Divide ND-
828 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMS AND SOUTHEASTERN DIVIDE COUNTIES...

At 828 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Wildrose, or 20
miles south of Crosby, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Wildrose and Hamlet. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4856 10288 4856 10289 4843 10319 4866 10330
      4873 10313
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 299DEG 4KT 4863 10318 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AYD

363 
WWUS53 KBIS 180154
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
854 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

NDC023-105-180215-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0135.000000T0000Z-170818T0215Z/
Williams ND-Divide ND-
854 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMS AND SOUTHEASTERN DIVIDE COUNTIES...

At 854 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Wildrose, or 22
miles south of Crosby, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Wildrose and Hamlet. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4860 10295 4856 10295 4848 10317 4864 10327
      4870 10319 4871 10313
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 325DEG 21KT 4861 10313 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HEINERT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
658 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Isolated to scattered high based convection continues across
western into north central North Dakota with a few mid level
impulses ahead of the more boarder wave across northeast Montana
into Saskatchewan as of 2345 UTC. MLCAPE around 1000 j/kg and weak
deep layer shear suggests that the severe threat is rather low.
However, gusts of 30-40kts are possible with the stronger storms
given their high based nature. The CAMs through the 22 UTC HRRR
suggest at least isolated to scattered elevated convection will
propagate east and maintain itself through the night aided by the
aforementioned wave. However, a large spread in the CAMs remains,
with the HRRR the most aggressive in strengthening convection
overnight across central North Dakota. This is certainly not out
of the question, but still somewhat uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Fire weather concerns and Thunderstorm chances highlight the short
term forecast.

Currently, low pressure was situated near Watford City along a
trough situated from Saskatchewan through the western Dakotas.
Over far western ND and eastern MT, dewpoints have dropped behind
the surface trough with some gustier winds. However, a shortwave
tracking across Montana is bringing an area of increased
cloudiness into southwest ND at this time, and should may help
temper afternoon highs, which would inhibit fire weather potential
somewhat.

Tonight, mesoscale models are hinting at two areas of showers and
thunderstorms. the first is associated with the aforementioned
shortwave trough and tracks west to east along the ND/SD border,
extending south through SD. The strongest convection remains
mostly to the south of ND.

A second area of convection tracks across northwest and north
central ND, and then southeast into eastern ND during the
overnight hours. Severe thunderstorm appears on the minimal side,
but with around 1000 J/KG of CAPE and 25 to 35 knots of shear this
evening, an isolated severe storm can not be ruled out. Some of
the mesoscale models have indicated some weak to moderate updraft
helicity signatures dropping southeast from Canada this evening.

Warm and dry on Friday. We lowered the dewpoints from guidance in
the southwest Friday afternoon, but winds do not appear to be very
strong.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

he extended forecast begins Friday night with a shortwave ridge
bringing warmer temperatures Friday and especially Saturday.
Highs should be in the 80s Friday with more widespread lower 90s
by Saturday. This will be followed by a Pacific cold frontal
passage cooling the region back into the 70s and lower 80s Sunday
through Tuesday. This will also bring a chance for scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night. Broad ridging
develops aloft by early to middle of next week suppressing
convection and returning warmer temperatures to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms early this evening across
western and north central North Dakota will move east through the
night across much of the central and into the eastern portions of
the state. Locally strong winds, small hail and MVFR/IFR
conditions are possible with these thunderstorms. A few showers
and thunderstorms may linger through the morning across the James
River Valley. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected outside of
precipitation for the 00 UTC TAF cycle.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

While there are some fire weather concerns today critical fire
weather conditions are not expected.

A warm thermal ridge will support high temperatures today around
90 southwest into west central North Dakota. While consensus
models show Minimum RH values around 20 percent opted to use the
dryer HRRR model which supports Minimum RH's as low as 15 percent,
and also extended the lower humidities a little farther east. A
wind shift to the Northwest is forecast with the surface trough
passage late this afternoon. Again, raised winds a tad over
consensus to around 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25. Based in this
there should not be sufficient winds to create critical fire
weather conditions today.

Another warm day is forecast Saturday with a more significant
frontal passage late Saturday afternoon and night. We utilized a
blend of higher wind guidance over our given guidance. BUFKIT
forecast NAM/GFS soundings for Saturday afternoon support
sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts of 25 to 30 mph. This
period will certainly need to be monitored for possible critical
fire weather.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...PA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...PA
FIRE WEATHER...TWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
642 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-182345-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
642 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 /542 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms across western and north
central North Dakota early this evening will move east through
the overnight. Severe weather is not expected. However, a few
thunderstorms could produce strong gusty winds, small hail and
dangerous lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

PA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
527 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

NDZ010-172315-
Mountrail ND-
527 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MOUNTRAIL COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

At 527 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southeast of Ross, or 6 miles southwest of Stanley, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stanley, Ross and Belden.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4821 10192 4792 10220 4823 10267 4837 10248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 295DEG 21KT 4825 10247

HARGROVE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
527 PM MDT THU AUG 17 2017

NDZ031-180015-
Golden Valley ND-
527 PM MDT THU AUG 17 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

At 526 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wibaux, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Beach and Sentinel Butte.

LAT...LON 4701 10405 4690 10361 4666 10379 4677 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 296DEG 23KT 4695 10420

HARGROVE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
659 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

NDZ009-180045-
Williams ND-
659 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WILLIAMS COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Bonetrail, or 13 miles northwest of Williston, moving
east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Williston and Spring Brook.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4839 10391 4835 10335 4803 10344 4802 10345
      4807 10356 4808 10355 4809 10358 4811 10361
      4812 10359 4813 10359 4811 10364 4812 10367
      4812 10370 4822 10398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 283DEG 17KT 4829 10384

HARGROVE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
756 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

NDZ001-009-180130-
Divide ND-Williams ND-
756 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL DIVIDE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 755 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wildrose to 6 miles west of Battleview.
Movement was east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail, wind gusts to 45 mph, and dangerous lightning will
be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wildrose, Hamlet and Mcgregor.

Seek shelter if threatening weather approaches.

LAT...LON 4873 10321 4860 10289 4840 10289 4858 10334
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 288DEG 12KT 4865 10325 4855 10292

AYD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
759 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

NDZ001-180130-
Divide ND-
759 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN DIVIDE COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

At 758 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Fortuna, or 29 miles west of Crosby, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail, wind gusts to 50 mph, and dangerous lightning will
be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fortuna and Alkabo.

Seek shelter if threatening weather approaches.

LAT...LON 4900 10373 4896 10365 4883 10385 4898 10405
      4900 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 309DEG 18KT 4900 10393

AYD