Winter Storm Watch 3, NWS La Crosse, WI

031 
WWUS43 KARX 231637
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1037 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...Winter Storm To Impact The Region Later Tonight through Friday
Night...Dangerous Travel Expected...

.This storm will contain heavy snow, rain, wind, possibly 
a wintry mix, and thunderstorms. All this will impact the region 
tonight through Friday night. Due to considerable snow 
accumulations and strong wind, there will be significant impacts 
to travel for most of the area. Blizzard warnings are also being
considered west of the Mississippi River.

Much of what falls through this evening will be rain and some snow,
with minimal impact expected on travel or activities. Travel 
hazards then increase overnight as the rain makes a change over 
to snow and becomes heavy with some thundersnow also occurring. 
Accumulations from 1 to 4 inches expected...higher north of 
Interstate 90. Light icing could also occur if freezing 
precipitation develops.

Plan on mostly snow for Friday through Friday night, although 
a mix with rain or freezing precipitation could occur near and 
south of Interstate 90 at times Friday . An additional 4 to 10 
inches of snow expected, highest across southeast Minnesota.

Meanwhile, strong northwest winds with gusts 40 to 45 mph will 
blow and drift the snow Friday and Friday night, especially in 
open and unsheltered areas, adding another hazard to travel.

Expect any slush or standing water to freeze Friday night into
Saturday morning.

Confidence is high that this storm will produce significant
amounts of snow. However, even a small shift in the storm track
will have large impacts on what falls where, and how much. There
still could be some slight adjustments as to where the heavy snow
band sets up.

Be sure to keep up to date on the latest forecasts and prepare 
now for this winter storm, especially if you have travel plans.

MNZ079-086>088-094-WIZ017-029-032>034-240045-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.W.0002.170224T0600Z-170225T1200Z/
Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-
Trempealeau-Jackson-
Including the cities of Wabasha, Dodge Center, Rochester, Winona,
Austin, Medford, Neillsville, Alma, Arcadia, Whitehall, 
and Black River Falls
1037 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY...

* Expect a wintry mix to develop by midnight, transitioning to 
  snow for Friday and Friday night. 

* Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14 inches. Snow rates up to 2
  inches an hour at times also possible in thundersnow. Light
  could also possible.

* Look for significant reductions in visibility at times.

* Significant blowing and drifting snow expected Friday through 
  Friday night in open and unsheltered areas 

* Travel will be very difficult to impossible...including during 
  the morning and evening commutes on Friday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A winter storm warning means significant amounts of snow...sleet
and ice are expected. Strong winds are also possible. This will
make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

IAZ008>011-018-019-MNZ095-096-WIZ041>044-053-240045-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.A.0003.170224T0600Z-170225T1200Z/
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fillmore-
Houston-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-
Including the cities of Osage, Cresco, Decorah, Waukon, 
Charles City, New Hampton, Preston, Caledonia, La Crosse, Sparta,
Tomah, Mauston, Friendship, and Viroqua
1037 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* Wintry mix overnight into Friday...becoming all snow by Friday 
  night.

* Total snow accumulations of 3 to 10 inches. Snow rates up to 2
  inches an hour are possible in thundersnow. Light icing could
  also occur.

* Significant reductions in visibility are likely.

* Significant blowing and drifting snow expected Friday through 
  Friday night in open and unsheltered areas 

* Travel will become difficult to potentially impossible by 
  Friday night. Expect slippery travel for the morning commute 
  on Friday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A winter storm watch means there is potential for significant
snow...sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

DS

584 
WWUS43 KARX 231759
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1159 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...Dangerous Winter Storm To Impact The Region Later Tonight 
through Friday Night...Dangerous Travel Expected...

.A dangerous winter storm is taking aim on the area tonight
through Friday night. This storm will contain strong winds, heavy
snow, rain, possibly a wintry mix, and thunderstorms. All this 
will impact the region tonight through Friday night. Due to 
considerable snow accumulations and strong wind, there will be 
significant impacts to travel for most of the area. Blizzard 
warnings have been posted for portions of southeast Minnesota and
northeast Iowa while winter storm warnings and watches remain in 
effect for a good portion of the rest of the area.

Rain and some snow will move in this evening with minimal impact 
expected on travel or activities. Travel will then become dangerous
overnight through Friday with snow becoming heavy coupled with 
strong northerly winds causing blowing and drifting of the snow. 
Snow accumulations from 1 to 4 inches are expected overnight, 
highest north of a Austin and Winona Minnesota to Black River 
Falls Wisconsin line. Some thundersnow will also be likely, adding
to snowfall rates. Light icing could also occur if freezing 
precipitation develops.

Plan on mostly snow continuing Friday through Friday night, 
although a mix with rain or freezing precipitation could occur 
near and south of Interstate 90 at times Friday. An additional 4 
to 12 inches of snow is expected Friday through Friday night with
the highest amounts expected across southeast Minnesota into west
central Wisconsin.

Strong north winds with gusts 30 to 45 mph will cause significant
blowing and drifting of the snow Friday and Friday night which
will cause some whiteouts. This will be especially true in open 
and unsheltered areas. 

Expect any slush or standing water to freeze Friday night into
Saturday morning.

Confidence is high that this storm will produce significant
amounts of snow. However, even a small shift in the storm track
will have large impacts on what falls where, and how much. There
still could be some slight adjustments as to where the heavy snow
band sets up.

Be sure to keep up to date on the latest forecasts and prepare
now for this dangerous winter storm, especially if you have 
travel plans.

MNZ079-086>088-094-240200-
/O.UPG.KARX.WS.W.0002.170224T0600Z-170225T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KARX.BZ.W.0001.170224T0600Z-170225T1200Z/
Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-
Including the cities of Wabasha, Dodge Center, Rochester, Winona,
and Austin
1159 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in La Crosse has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
Saturday. The Winter Storm Warning is no longer in effect. 

* Expect a wintry mix to develop this evening, transitioning to
  all snow overnight. This snow will become heavy after midnight.

* Total snow accumulations tonight through Friday night in the 10
  to 16 inch range. Snow rates up to 2 inches an hour at times
  also possible in thundersnow. 

* Significant blowing and drifting with some whiteouts also
  likely, especially in open and unsheltered areas.

* Travel will likely become dangerous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are 
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds 
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout 
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If 
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get 
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

IAZ008-009-018-MNZ095-240200-
/O.UPG.KARX.WS.A.0003.170224T0600Z-170225T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KARX.BZ.W.0001.170224T0600Z-170225T1200Z/
Mitchell-Howard-Floyd-Fillmore-
Including the cities of Osage, Cresco, Charles City, and Preston
1159 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in La Crosse has issued a Blizzard
Warning, which is in effect from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
Saturday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect. 

* Expect a wintry mix to develop this evening, transitioning to
  all snow overnight. This snow will become heavy after midnight.

* Total snow accumulations tonight through Friday night in the 10
  to 16 inch range. Snow rates up to 2 inches an hour at times
  also possible in thundersnow. 

* Significant blowing and drifting with some whiteouts also
  likely, especially in open and unsheltered areas.

* Travel will likely become dangerous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are 
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds 
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout 
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If 
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get 
stranded...stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

WIZ017-029-032>034-240200-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.W.0002.170224T0600Z-170225T1200Z/
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-
Including the cities of Medford, Neillsville, Alma, Arcadia, 
Whitehall, and Black River Falls
1159 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY...

* Expect a wintry mix to develop this evening, transitioning to
  all snow overnight. Snow will continue Friday into Friday night. 

* Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches. Snow rates up to 2
  inches an hour at times also possible in thundersnow. Light
  icing could also occur. 

* Look for significant reductions in visibility at times in the
  falling snow.

* Significant blowing and drifting snow will cause near whiteouts
  at times also expected Friday through Friday night in open and 
  unsheltered areas. 

* Travel will be very difficult to impossible...including during 
  the morning and evening commutes on Friday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A winter storm warning means significant amounts of snow...sleet
and ice are expected. Strong winds are also possible. This will
make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

IAZ010-011-019-MNZ096-WIZ041>044-053-240200-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.A.0003.170224T0600Z-170225T1200Z/
Winneshiek-Allamakee-Chickasaw-Houston-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-
Including the cities of Decorah, Waukon, New Hampton, Caledonia, 
La Crosse, Sparta, Tomah, Mauston, Friendship, and Viroqua
1159 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* Wintry mix overnight into Friday...becoming all snow by Friday 
  night. 

* Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches. Snow rates up to 2 
  inches an hour are possible in thundersnow. Light icing could 
  also occur. 

* Significant reductions in visibility are likely.

* Significant blowing and drifting snow expected Friday through 
  Friday night in open and unsheltered areas. 

* Travel will become difficult to potentially impossible by 
  Friday night. Expect slippery travel for the morning commute 
  on Friday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A winter storm watch means there is potential for significant
snow...sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

DS

907 
WWUS43 KARX 232103
WSWARX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
303 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...Dangerous Winter Storm To Impact The Region Later Tonight
through Friday Night...Dangerous Travel Expected...

.A dangerous winter storm will impact the area tonight through 
Friday night. This storm will contain strong winds, heavy snow, 
rain, a wintry mix, and thunderstorms. Due to considerable snow 
accumulations and strong wind, there will be significant impacts 
to travel for most of the area. Blizzard warnings have been posted
for portions of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa while 
winter storm warnings and advisories have been posted for the 
rest of the area.

Rain and some snow will move in this evening with minimal impact
expected on travel or activities. Travel will then become
dangerous overnight through Friday as snow becomes heavy coupled 
with strong northerly winds causing blowing and drifting of the 
snow. Snow accumulations from 1 to 4 inches are expected 
overnight, highest north of a Charles City Iowa, Winona 
Minnesota, and Black River Falls Wisconsin line. Some thundersnow 
will also occur, adding to snowfall rates and reduced visibilities.
Light icing could also mainly south of I-90.

Plan on mostly snow continuing Friday through Friday night,
although a mix with rain or freezing precipitation could occur
near and south of Interstate 90 at times during the day Friday. 
An additional 4 to 12 inches of snow is expected Friday through 
Friday night with the highest amounts expected across southeast 
Minnesota into west central Wisconsin.

Strong north winds with gusts 35 to 45 mph will cause significant
blowing and drifting of the snow Friday and Friday night which
will cause some whiteouts. This will be especially true in open
and unsheltered areas.

Expect any slush or standing water to freeze Friday night into
Saturday morning.

Prepare now for this dangerous winter storm, especially if you 
have travel plans.

IAZ010-019-MNZ096-240515-
/O.UPG.KARX.WS.A.0003.170224T0600Z-170225T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KARX.BZ.W.0001.170224T0600Z-170225T1200Z/
Winneshiek-Chickasaw-Houston-
Including the cities of Decorah, New Hampton, and Caledonia
303 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in La Crosse has issued a Blizzard
Warning...which is in effect from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
Saturday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect. 

* Expect a wintry mix to develop this evening, transitioning to
  all snow overnight. This snow will become heavy after midnight,
  tapering off Friday night.

* Total snow accumulations tonight through Friday night in the 6
  to 10 inch range. Snow rates up to 2 inches an hour at times 
  also possible in thundersnow. 

* Winds gusting to 45 mph will produce significant blowing and
  drifting of the snow with some whiteouts also likely, 
  especially in open and unsheltered areas.

* Travel will become dangerous.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A blizzard warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

WIZ041-042-240515-
/O.UPG.KARX.WS.A.0003.170224T0600Z-170225T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KARX.WS.W.0002.170224T0600Z-170225T1200Z/
La Crosse-Monroe-
Including the cities of La Crosse, Sparta, and Tomah
303 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM
CST SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in La Crosse has issued a Winter
Storm Warning which is in effect from midnight tonight to 6 AM 
CST Saturday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect. 

* Expect a transition from rain this evening to wintry mix and
  snow around midnight and then diminishing Friday night.

* The heaviest snowfall rates will occur between midnight and 6 AM
  Friday with the possibility of some thundersnow. 

* Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10 inches along with a light 
  icing are expected. 

* Winds gusting to 35 mph will likely cause some blowing and
  drifting of the snow, especially in open unsheltered areas and 
on bluff tops. Look for significant reductions in visibility at 
times.

* Plan on difficult travel conditions...including during the 
  morning and evening commutes on Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A winter storm warning means significant amounts of snow...sleet
and ice are expected. Strong winds are also possible. This will
make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

IAZ008-009-018-MNZ079-086>088-094-095-240515-
/O.CON.KARX.BZ.W.0001.170224T0600Z-170225T1200Z/
Mitchell-Howard-Floyd-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-
Including the cities of Osage, Cresco, Charles City, Wabasha, 
Dodge Center, Rochester, Winona, Austin, and Preston
303 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST SATURDAY...

* Expect blizzard conditions to develop around midnight and then 
  diminish around 6 AM Saturday. 

* Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause whiteout conditions 
  in blowing snow. Significant drifting of the snow is 
  likely...especially on ridge tops and in open areas. Tree 
  branches and power lines could fall as well.

* Total snow accumulations of 10 to 16 inches are expected. 

* Travel will be very difficult to impossible...including during 
  the morning commute on Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A blizzard warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions...making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel...have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded...stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

WIZ017-029-032>034-240515-
/O.CON.KARX.WS.W.0002.170224T0600Z-170225T1200Z/
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-
Including the cities of Medford, Neillsville, Alma, Arcadia, 
Whitehall, and Black River Falls
303 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY...

* Expect a wintry mix and snow to develop this evening,
  diminishing Friday night. Some thunder is also possible.

* The heaviest snowfall rates will occur from 6 am through 6 pm
  Friday.

* Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches and ice 
  accumulations of a glaze are expected. 

* Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will cause patchy blowing and 
  drifting snow...especially on ridge tops and in open areas. 
  In addition...some reductions to visibility are expected. 

* Travel will be very difficult to impossible...including during 
  the evening commute on Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A winter storm warning means significant amounts of snow...sleet
and ice are expected. Strong winds are also possible. This will
make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

IAZ011-WIZ043-044-053-240515-
/O.UPG.KARX.WS.A.0003.170224T0600Z-170225T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KARX.WW.Y.0010.170224T0600Z-170225T1200Z/
Allamakee-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-
Including the cities of Waukon, Mauston, Friendship, and Viroqua
303 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in La Crosse has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory which is in effect from midnight tonight to 6 AM
CST Saturday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect. 

* Expect a wintry mix to develop around midnight and then diminish
  by 6 am Saturday. 

* The heaviest snowfall rates will occur Friday evening...and the
  greatest amount of ice accumulation looks to occur Friday 
  morning. 

* Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice 
  accumulations of 2/10 of an inch are expected. 

* Look for reduced visibilities at times. 

* The ice and snow will result in difficult travel
  conditions...including the morning and evening commutes on 
  Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A winter weather advisory means that periods of snow...sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while
driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling
from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

IAZ029-030-WIZ054-055-061-240515-
/O.NEW.KARX.WW.Y.0010.170224T0600Z-170225T1200Z/
Fayette-Clayton-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
Including the cities of Oelwein, Elkader, Prairie Du Chien, 
Richland Center, and Platteville
303 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 AM CST SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in La Crosse has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory which is in effect from midnight tonight to 6 AM
CST Saturday. 

* Expect a wintry mix to develop around midnight and then 
  diminish around 6 AM Saturday. 

* The heaviest snowfall rates will occur between 6 PM Friday and 
  midnight Saturday...and the greatest amount of ice 
  accumulation will occur between 6 AM and noon Friday. 

* Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches and ice 
  accumulations of 2/10 of an inch are expected. 

* Winds gusting as high as 35 to 40 mph will cause patchy blowing
  and drifting snow...especially on ridge tops and in open areas.
  This will cause some reductions to visibility. 

* The ice will result in difficult travel conditions...including 
  during the morning commute on Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A winter weather advisory means that periods of snow...sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while
driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling
from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

ds

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
326 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

..SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A longer short-term this cycle to encompass the impending winter
storm to end the week.

Main fcst concerns this period are the impending major winter storm
tonight into Fri night, precip types and snow amounts with it.

06z data analysis had low pressure moving across northern lower MI.
This low was dragging a cold front SE across the region early this
morning with cooler high pressure was building into the northern
plains and Upper Midwest behind it. Temperatures still well above
normal across the region early this morning, but were on a stronger
downward trend as lower level cold advection was spreading across
the region. Elsewhere, the low to impact the region tonight into Fri
night was taking shape over eastern CO and western KS as strong
shortwave energy was coming thru the central/southern Rockies.

23.00z models look to have initialized well. Models finally starting
to converge on a common solution for the troughing/energy coming
thru the Rockies this morning as emerges into the central plains
today. Better consensus as the trough deepens and closes off a mid
level low tonight/Fri and moves it toward/into IA by 00z Sat. Trend
favors a slightly slower/stronger solution at 00z Sat, then leans
toward a slightly faster solution as the mid level trough would
pass Fri night. The stronger solution Fri/Fri night produces a
southward shift of the lower level features/sfc low. Some lower
level detail differences yet, but better than the past several
cycles. Overall fcst confidence for today thru Fri night is
average to improving this cycle.

For the short term, 23.00z GFS/ECMWF/Gem actually offering a
decent consensus on the strong sfc thru mid level system set to
lift across the Upper midwest tonight thru Fri night. It's the NAM
that remains an outlier that impacts the fcst confidence, and
potentially precip types and snow amounts across the area later
tonight thru Fri night. For now have continued to side with a
model/ensemble consensus and included some weighting of the NAM
solution. Plenty of moisture (PWs in the 3/4 to 1 inch range in
the inflow airmass) and deep layered forcing/lift to spread across
the area tonight thru Fri night, producing a significant swath of
precip across the area. Consensus QPF totals thru Fri night in
the 1 to 1.5 inch range across much of the fcst area. Stronger,
slight further south solutions of the GFS/ECMWF/Gem would drop
most of this as snow. Southern end of the fcst area would still
see some rain, mainly tonight into Fri as the boundary layer
remains on the warm side or the mid level drying (dry slot) erodes
the ice in the clouds for a time late tonight thru early
Fri afternoon. NAM holds onto more warm air aloft tonight into
Fri, as well as pushes the mid level drying and loss of ice in
the clouds much further north across the fcst area. NAM results in
more of the precip along/south of I-90 as a wintry mix, holding
snow amounts down. Favoring the model consensus of a colder sfc-
700mb solution and shift of the heavy precip axis more southward
into the fcst area, raised snow totals across much of the fcst
area. This consensus now produces 6+ inches over roughly the NW
2/3 of the fcst area, with potential for a swath of wintry mix
centered on a KCCY-KLSE-KISW line. At this time, upgraded the
previous winter storm watch to winter storm warning. Given the
slight slowing at 00z Fri, and bulk of any precip this evening as
-RA until the BL layer fully cools, did push the warning start
time back to 06z tonight. With it being night, along with brisk/
gusty NW winds and some continuing snow, did extend the warning
thru 12z Sat. South of this, where confidence in precip types/snow
amounts still carries some uncertainty, will be issuing a winter
storm watch from roughly a New Hampton IA to Viroqua and Adams-
Friendship WI line northward to the warning, 06z Fri thru 12z Sat.
Late note, the 23.06z NAM has trend a bit south, now more in line
with 00z GFS/EC/Gem, making the southward addition/extension of
the watch look very good. Continued with a TS mention across
roughly the S half of the fcst area late tonight/Fri morning when
models push 100-200 J/KG MuCape to near the S edge of the fcst
area centered on 12z Fri. This with some stronger low level
lifting and plenty of moisture.

Stayed with a consensus of the guidance highs/lows for today thru
Fri night, with highs/lows back to near late Feb normals by Fri/Fri
night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Main fcst concerns for the day 3 thru 7 period are: colder temps for
the weekend then warming into next week, small -RA/-SN chances much
of the Sun-Wed period.

Model runs of 23.00z in decent agreement for the Fri trough to
quickly exit east Sat then another NW flow wave to drop into/across
the region Sat night/Sun. Good agreement for renewed troughing
moving into the western conus Sun thru Mon, forcing a downstream hgt
rise over the north-central Conus for this same period. Agreement
remains good for the troughing to progress into the central Conus
Tue with some portion of the energy moving across the Upper Midwest
Wed. Confidence in the day 3-7 period is average to good this cycle.

Given the impending major winter storm in the short-term, spent
rather little time looking beyond Sat morning. Colder NW flow/Can
high pressure on track to build across the area for Sat/Sun, with
what is looking to be the first near/below normal temps in a
while. Plenty of detail differences, but the NW flow 'clipper'
wave could bring a little -SN to the area late Sat night/Sun. This
handled by the small consensus precip chances for now. With the
progression of the pattern and rising hgts over the region, temps
back to near/above normal for Mon-Wed look well trended. Will have
to watch for some of these later period temps being too warm over
what may be a significant snow cover from the storm centered on
Fri. Again with plenty of detail differences in both lower level
features and shortwave detail in what would be troughing
approaching/moving into the region Tue/Wed, consensus of mostly
30-40% -RA/-SN chances Tue- Wed look good for now. Consensus
highs/lows for Sat-Wed look well trended for now, but again will
need to watch many of these over the expected snow cover. May
well see some sub-zero lows Sun night/Mon morning but plenty time
to detail that.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Surface cold front now along a line from KEAU to KLSE to KOLZ and
will continue to push eastward overnight. Behind the front, winds
increase from the northwest with some gusts into the lower 20 kt
range. MVFR/IFR cloud deck also on the move behind the front and
will impact TAF airfields for much of night. Some slight
improvement to VFR at KLSE and MVFR at KRST expected by mid
Thursday morning into the afternoon before conditions drop again
Thursday evening in response to the strong winter storm taking aim
on the region Thursday night through Friday. Could see a rain/snow
mix or even all snow at KRST prior to 24.06Z, but for simplicity
will keep it all rain for now with some reduction in visibility
into the MVFR range. Gusty northwest wind overnight will gradually
turn to the northeast by late Thursday morning into the afternoon.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Friday night
     for WIZ041>044-053.

     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Saturday
     for WIZ017-029-032>034.

MN...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Friday night
     for MNZ095-096.

     Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Saturday
     for MNZ079-086>088-094.

IA...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Friday night
     for IAZ008>011-018-019.

&&

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....Rogers

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
320 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

IAZ008>011-018-019-MNZ095-096-WIZ041>044-053-241100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fillmore-
Houston-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-
320 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and western into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Winter Storm Watch late tonight.

A wintry mix of precipitation spreads into the area this
afternoon, continuing through tonight. Mostly liquid through this
evening, but snow accumulations up to 2 inches and a glaze of ice
possible overnight.

In addition, there is a small chance for thunderstorms overnight.
Small hail and lightning will be the main threats.

Runoff from recent rain and snow melt has resulted in rises on
area rivers and streams. While most will stay within bank, some
mainly minor flooding will occur over the next couple days.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Winter Storm Watch through Friday night.

Snow, rain, and wind for Friday and Friday night. Freezing
precipitation possible on Friday. Additional snow accumulations
from 3 to 8 inches. Light icing possible if freezing precipitation
develops. In addition, strong and gusty northwest winds will blow
and drift the snow, especially in open and unsheltered areas. Any
slush, standing water will freeze Friday night and Saturday
morning.

This is a high impact storm that will result in slippery to
hazardous travel. Plan ahead.

In addition, isolated thunderstorm are possible Friday morning.
Small hail and lightning will be the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Precipitation reports are appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A webinar will be held at 130 pm today.

MNZ079-086>088-094-WIZ017-029-032>034-241100-
Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-
Trempealeau-Jackson-
320 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...western into north central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Winter Storm Warning late tonight.

A wintry mix of precipitation spreads across the area late this
afternoon and evening, continuing overnight. Mostly liquid
through this evening, but snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are
expected overnight. A glaze of ice also possible.

In addition, there is a small chance for thunderstorms overnight.
Small hail and lightning will be the main threats.

Runoff from recent rain and snow melt has resulted in rises on
area rivers and streams. While most will stay within bank, some
mainly minor flooding will occur over the next couple days.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Winter Storm Warning through Friday night.

Snow, rain, and wind for Friday and Friday night. Freezing
precipitation possible on Friday. Additional snow accumulations
from 5 to 10 inches. Light icing possible if freezing
precipitation develops. In addition, strong and gusty northwest
winds will blow and drift the snow, especially in open and
unsheltered areas. Any slush, standing water will freeze Friday
night and Saturday morning.

This is a high impact storm that will result in hazardous to
dangerous travel. Plan ahead.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Precipitation reports are appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A webinar will be held at 130 pm today.

IAZ029-030-WIZ054-055-061-241100-
Fayette-Clayton-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
320 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Iowa
and southwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Rain spreads across the area this afternoon, continuing through
tonight. It could mix with light freezing precipitation overnight.

In addition, there is a small chance for thunderstorms overnight.
Small hail and lightning will be the main threats.

Runoff from recent rain and snow melt has resulted in rises on
area rivers and streams. While most will stay within bank, some
mainly minor flooding will occur over the next couple days.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Rain and wind for Friday...freezing precipitation possible early.
Rain changes to snow Friday night. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3
inches. Light icing possible if freezing precipitation develops.
Any slush, standing water will freeze Friday night and Saturday
morning.

Travel will become slippery to hazardous Friday night. Plan
ahead.

In addition, isolated thunderstorm are possible Friday
morning. Small hail and lightning will be the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Precipitation reports are appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A webinar will be held at 130 pm today.

Rieck/RRS