Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
615 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Main fcst concerns this period are continued SHRA/TSRA chances and
threat of additional heavy rains.

Data analysis at 06z had a warm front located from central MN into
eastern IA. Warm advection/moisture transport of a very moist/
unstable airmass over the warm front producing an arc of convection
from NE of KMSP to near KLSE/KDBQ on its leading edge. Some of the
TSRA have been very efficient rain makers. Where TSRA trained/
repeated, as much as 8+ inches of rain has fallen with flooding/
flash flooding issues in parts of Clayton Co. IA. Otherwise, a warm,
muggy July night across much of the Upper Midwest.

No issues noted with 12.00z model initializations. Solutions similar
for today/tonight as shortwave energy along the US/Can border from
eastern MT to Lk Superior works to close off a mid level low NW of
Lk Superior by 12z Thu. Plenty of smaller scale detail differences
among the short-term models again, leading to variable sensible
weather outcomes today/tonight. Short-term fcst confidence is
average this cycle.

In the short term, convection early this morning should continue to
push east and out of the area as the warm front lifts NE and the
leading edge of the moisture transport/theta-e convergence
translates east of the area. Most of the area should see a break
from the convection this morning. Much of the flash flood watch
expiring at 6 am looks good and may be able to drop that part for
Adams/Juneau counties at 6 am as well. Overall slower progression of
the shortwave energy near the US/Can border keeps sfc low pressure
and a frontal boundary in the area into tonight. Very moist/unstable
airmass (PWs in the 1.75 to 2 inch range) to remain over much of the
area today ahead of the front. Question is will the front trigger
additional convection this afternoon/evening as it becomes rather
parallel to the lower/mid level flow. Bulk of the hi-res/CAMs models
keep the front rather quiet this afternoon into this evening, while
NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF are more active with the front, especially the
NAM. Given all the detail differences, will side with the model
consensus and carry afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA chances mostly in
the 20-40% range for this afternoon/evening. See SWODY1 for more
details on the severe threat with any TSRA this
afternoon/evening, given what could be extreme CAPE and modest
deep layered shear. Given precip chances mostly in the 20-40%
range this afternoon/ evening, will hold off any additional flash
flood watches at this time. Day crew will have to keep an eye on
it and evaluate rain chances as the day wears on. With the high PW
values and warm cloud depths of 4 km or more. With a warm start
and much of the area south of the cold front today, a very summery
day in order. With some sunshine expected today, blend of
guidance highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s for much of the area
today looks good.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

For Thu thru Fri night, main fcst concerns this period are cooler
temperatures.

Model suite of 12.00z in decent agreement dropping a mid level low/
shortwave energy SE across the great lakes Thu/Thu night. This sets
up NW flow aloft over the Upper Midwest by later Thu thru Fri night.

Mid level low/shortwave dropping across the great lakes pushes the
cold front further S and SE of the area on Thu, with cooler, drier
Can high pressure settling into/across the Upper midwest for Thu
thru Fri night. The high PW airmass is pushed out of the area, with
dew points progged to drop into the more comfortable 50s for by
later Thu and for Fri. Rather cool 925mb airmass settles across the
region Thu, with some modification Fri as the center of the high
slips south of the area. Trend of the consensus highs/lows for Thu
thru Fri night below normal looks good.

For Sat thru Tue (days 4-7): main fcst concerns this period are

Little time to look at this period, but trend of 12.00z medium range
models is for mid level ridging to build east into/across the region
thru the period. Day 4-7 fcst confidence is average.

This period trending warmer, with perhaps a frontal passage and a
SHRA/TSRA chance Sat, with another small SHRA/TSRA chance about
Tue. Consensus highs/lows generally near to a bit above normal
appear reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Outflow boundary from convection near/east of MS river was
moving thru the taf sites as of 11z. Lower clouds behind this
boundary and TSRA (KLSE area) with it to be rather temporary at
the sites early this morning, only thru about 13z. Vfr then expected
at the taf sites thru today into this evening. A cold front will be
sagging south across the area, but convergence/lift with it looking
to be on the weak side. Question is will the front trigger any
SHRA/TSRA as it passes. If it does, appears the convection would be
south/east of the taf sites later this afternoon, and left any
TSRA/CB mention this afternoon/evening out of the tafs at this time.
Model prog some low clouds to spread south across the area behind
the front later tonight. Taf sites are on the edge of this moisture
thru 12z Thu, so some drop in confidence that lower, mainly MVFR
cigs would spread into the taf sites late in the period. For now
carried a sct mvfr layer after 06z but may yet need some bkn/ovc
cigs late tonight into Thu morning as cooler air spreads in and
strengthens a low level inversion over the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...(this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

First wave of heavy rain producing SHRA/TSRA should be exiting the
fcst area around sunrise, with a break for the area thru the morning
hours. An airmass with PW values in the 1.75 to 2 inch range will
remain over the area today into this evening. This with warm
cloud depths of 4 to 4.5 km. Any TSRA this afternoon/evening will
again be capable of producing locally heavy rains and a
flooding/flash flooding threat. However, the question is will the
cold front sagging south into/across the area this
afternoon/evening have enough convergence/lift to trigger
widespread SHRA/TSRA. Many hi-res CAMs models generate minimal or
no convection along the front thru this evening. With rain chances
mostly 20-40% thru this evening, confidence not high enough at
this time to issue a flash flood watch for later today/tonight.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ033-034-041-
     042-053>055-061.

     Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ043-044.

MN...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ096.

IA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for IAZ010-011-029-
     030.

&&

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....Rogers
HYDROLOGY....RRS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
626 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

WIZ042>044-053-055-121200-
Juneau-Richland-Vernon-Adams-Monroe-
626 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...Thunderstorms with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall this
morning...

Strong thunderstorms with gusty winds to 40 mph and brief heavy rain
moving across the area through 7 AM. Move indoors until the storms
pass.  Be alert for ponding of water in poor drainage areas and
drive with caution this morning.

These storms will be near...
  Friendship, Mauston and Dellwood around 630 AM CDT.
  Adams and Wonewoc around 635 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Germantown,
Glendale, Lemonweir, Springville and Lindina.

Brief heavy rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4364 9031 4355 9031 4355 9019 4343 9019
      4358 9094 4401 9032 4395 8960 4364 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 1123Z 278DEG 52KT 4388 9000 4352 9048

Wetenkamp