Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS La Crosse, WI

639 
WWUS53 KARX 122252
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
552 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

IAC065-122330-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-170712T2330Z/
Fayette IA-
552 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY...

At 551 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Maynard, or
near Oelwein, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Maynard around 555 PM CDT. 
  Stanley around 600 PM CDT. 
  Fayette around 605 PM CDT. 
  Arlington around 615 PM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Wadena, 
Westgate, and Randalia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 9208 4285 9208 4294 9161 4264 9161
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 260DEG 28KT 4277 9193 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

JSB

178 
WWUS53 KARX 122257
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
557 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

IAC065-122330-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-170712T2330Z/
Fayette IA-
557 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY...

At 557 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Maynard, or 7
miles north of Oelwein, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Stanley around 600 PM CDT. 
  Fayette around 605 PM CDT. 
  Arlington around 620 PM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Wadena,
Westgate, Randalia, Highways 3 And 187 and County Road W 33 And 187.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 9208 4285 9208 4294 9161 4264 9161
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 258DEG 27KT 4278 9189 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

JSB

764 
WWUS53 KARX 122312
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
612 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

IAC065-122322-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-170712T2330Z/
Fayette IA-
612 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4264 9208 4285 9208 4294 9161 4264 9161
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 260DEG 28KT 4280 9173 

$$

JSB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
108 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

At 1 PM, a surface low was located northwest of Eau Claire
Wisconsin. This low is forecast to track east northeast across
central Wisconsin through this evening. A cold front extends south
southwest from this low through Red Wing Minnesota and Oelwein
Iowa. This front will move east and south of the forecast area by
13.01z. Ahead of this front, the dew points have climbed into the
into the 70s. With some sunshine late this morning, temperatures
are starting to recover and they currently range from the upper
70s to mid 80s. Temperatures will continue to warm into the 80s
(maybe a few lower 90s) this afternoon. This will result in the
0-1 km mean layer CAPES climbing into the 2.5 to 4.5K J/kg range.
As a short trough, currently located over southwest Minnesota, the
900 to 750 mb cap will erode. This will result in the rapid
development of storms between 12.19z and 12.21z. SPC mesoanalysis
page is showing that there will be adequate deep shear for the
development of supercells. With a straight-line hodograph, expect
to see splitting supercells. While the 0-1 km CAPES are more than
adequate for tornadoes, the 0-1 km bulk shear vectors less than 20
knots. However, if the winds are available to back a bit ahead of
the right moving supercells, a tornado could not be ruled out.
Overall, the biggest threat with these storms look to be damaging
winds, large hail (maybe 2.5" or greater in diameter), and very
heavy rain. Fortunately, it looks like the storms will be rather
progressive, so not anticipation widespread flash flooding. This
severe weather threat looks to be highest between 12.20z and
13.01z. The highest threat looks to be in the counties along the
Mississippi River and east.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

On Saturday afternoon and evening, another cold front will move
southeast through the region. An elevated mixed layer advecting
off the central Plains will initially cap convection ahead of this
front. This cap will also allow for the 0-1 km mean layer capes to
climb. However, the models are still differing on how much. The
latest GFS has anywhere from 2-4K J/kg. Meanwhile, the ECMWF
ranges from 1500 to 3000 J/kg. Overall, the best shear (35 to 40
knots) will be north of Interstate 94. SPC currently has much of
northern Wisconsin under a Slight Risk and this seems reasonable.

On Tuesday, the models are showing that a short wave trough will
round the upper level ridge. While there is timing differences,
both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that a mesoscale convective complex
will develop across the Northern Plains during the late afternoon
and this will then transition southeast into the Upper Mississippi
River Valley on Tuesday night. There may be some severe weather
with this system too.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Outflow boundary from convection near/east of MS river was
moving thru the taf sites as of 11z. Lower clouds behind this
boundary and TSRA (KLSE area) with it to be rather temporary at
the sites early this morning, only thru about 13z. Vfr then expected
at the taf sites thru today into this evening. A cold front will be
sagging south across the area, but convergence/lift with it looking
to be on the weak side. Question is will the front trigger any
SHRA/TSRA as it passes. If it does, appears the convection would be
south/east of the taf sites later this afternoon, and left any
TSRA/CB mention this afternoon/evening out of the tafs at this time.
Model prog some low clouds to spread south across the area behind
the front later tonight. Taf sites are on the edge of this moisture
thru 12z Thu, so some drop in confidence that lower, mainly MVFR
cigs would spread into the taf sites late in the period. For now
carried a sct mvfr layer after 06z but may yet need some bkn/ovc
cigs late tonight into Thu morning as cooler air spreads in and
strengthens a low level inversion over the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...This Afternoon and Evening
Issued at 108 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Precipitable water values will be in the 1.5 to 2 inch range and
warm cloud layer depths will climb to around 4 K feet ahead of a
cold front this afternoon and early evening. This will make the
the storms highly efficient rain producers. Fortunately, these
storms will be moving and there should be limited training. As a
result, we are not planning on issuing a Flash Flood Watch at this
time. With this said, we will monitoring the areas that saw heavy
rain last night closely.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION.....Rogers
HYDROLOGY...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
132 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-131200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
132 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Late This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected from 3 PM to 8 PM, mainly
south and east of La Crosse. Some of the storms across northeast
Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin could be strong to
severe. The main threats would be large hail, damaging winds, and
heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There are small thunderstorm chances Saturday afternoon and
evening and again Tuesday. It is too early to determine if there
would be a severe risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 3 PM and 8 PM.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

DTJ/Wetenkamp

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
310 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S TOMAH               43.98N 90.50W
07/12/2017                   MONROE             WI   PUBLIC

            TREES BLOWN DOWN IN THE TOMAH AREA. TIME
            ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR. RELAYED THROUGH
            SOCIAL MEDIA VIA WKBT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
340 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

WIZ017-029-122145-
Taylor-Clark-
340 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CLARK AND TAYLOR
COUNTIES...

At 338 PM CDT, radar indicated scattered thunderstorms were
developing along a line extending from near Jump River to near Fall
Creek. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Medford, Abbotsford, Thorp, Owen, Rib Lake, Jump River, Colby,
Longwood, Reseburg, Stetsonville, Willard, Withee, Gilman, Curtiss
and Lublin.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms are intensifying, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4537 9004 4512 9018 4512 9020 4503 9023
      4503 9031 4488 9032 4465 9044 4460 9092
      4538 9092
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 304DEG 24KT 4541 9083 4475 9134

DTJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
423 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

IAZ010-011-029-030-WIZ054-061-122330-
Winneshiek-Allamakee-Fayette-Clayton-Crawford-Grant-
Including the cities of Decorah, Waukon, Oelwein, Elkader,
Prairie Du Chien, and Platteville
423 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...Scattered Strong to Severe Storms This Afternoon...

Through 6 PM, scattered strong to severe storms will be seen
across parts of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. These
storms will be capable of producing large hail, wind gusts to
60 mph, and very heavy rain.

Boyne

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
442 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

WIZ029-122245-
Clark-
442 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY...

At 440 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles north of
Fairchild, or 19 miles northwest of Neillsville, moving east at 30
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Loyal, Greenwood, Willard, Tioga, Rock Dam Lake, Christie, Seven
Sister Mounds, Mead Lake, and Veefkind.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4456 9037 4463 9092 4483 9092 4482 9033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 274DEG 26KT 4473 9091

DTJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
508 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

WIZ017-029-122245-
Taylor-Clark-
508 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CLARK AND SOUTHEASTERN
TAYLOR COUNTIES...

At 507 PM CDT, a cluster of thunderstorms were located over
Dorchester, or near Owen, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Medford, Abbotsford, Colby, Owen, Dorchester, Longwood, Reseburg,
Stetsonville, Withee, Curtiss, Gad and The Taylor County Airport.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4512 9020 4503 9020 4503 9031 4487 9032
      4489 9086 4512 9039
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 271DEG 22KT 4503 9033

DTJ