Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
650 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

At 2 PM, a short wave trough moving through northwest Wisconsin
was producing scattered showers and storms across central and
northern Wisconsin. This system will move east across northern
Wisconsin and be located in western Upper Michigan by this
evening. As this occurs, a dry line will settle south toward the
Interstate 90 corridor. Dew points will be in the mid and upper
50s north of the dry line and in the lower and mid 60s south of
it.

As temperatures climb into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon,
the 0-1 km mean layer CAPES will climb into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg
range south of the Interstate 94. This CAPE will be building ahead
of an approaching short wave trough (currently located over
western Minnesota). The CAM models are in good agreement
thunderstorms will develop across east-central and south-central
Minnesota between 16.19z and 16.21z. The latest RAP suggest that
there will be sufficient deep shear that they will quickly develop
into supercell thunderstorms and then as their cold pools
coalesce the 0-3 km shear would favor a line of storms to move
through east and southeast through the area. The main severe
weather threat with these storms will be large hail and wind
through 16.23z, and then evolve into primarily a wind threat which
would last through 17.03z. While there is a severe weather threat
across the entire area, the greatest chance looks to be along and
south of the Interstate 90 corridor where the instability will be
the greatest.

For Saturday afternoon and night, a stronger short wave and
surface cold front will be moving through the region. Like the
past couple of days, the best instability will be well south of
our forecast area. However, there will still be 1000 to
2500 J/kg 0-1 km mean layer CAPE from northeast Iowa into
southwest and central Wisconsin. There may be sufficient deep
shear for a few supercell storms to develop. Both the HRRR and ARW
suggest this possibility. Meanwhile the NMM would suggest that
these storms would develop across east-central Iowa, northern
Illinois, and southeast Wisconsin. If this does occur, the primary
severe weather threats would be large hail and damaging winds.
There was a slight shift southward in the latest SPC Day 2
Outlook and this seems realistic.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

In the wake of this system, a much cooler air mass will move into
the region. 850 mb temperatures will fall into the 7 to 9C range
by Sunday afternoon and remain there for much of Monday. As a
result, high temperatures will only range from the upper 60s to
mid 70s. With 950 to 800 mb lapse rates over 8 C/km and 0-1 km
mean layer CAPES up to 1000 J/kg, scattered diurnally driven
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across much of the Upper Mississippi River Valley.

On Wednesday and Wednesday night, another short wave trough will
move through the region. While the GFS and ECMWF are still
differing on the amount of instability ahead of this system,
there looks to be sufficient shear for the potential of supercell
development. This system will have to watched over the next
several days.

From Thursday into Friday, the models hint at additional short
wave troughs moving along the US/Canadian border, but there has
been little consistency in the timing of these system. Due to
this, there is a broad brush of showers and thunderstorms chances
during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Thunderstorms will continue at the TAF sites through early
evening. Expect large hail and wind gusts of 40 to 60 kts possible
in any severe storms. Also, anticipate IFR conditions in any
steadier rains or storms. The strongest storms will push east of
the TAF sites by late evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

The first half of June was the warmest at both La Crosse WI and
Rochester MN.

Through the first half of June, the average temperature at
La Crosse Regional Airport was 75.3 degrees. This was 8.3 degrees
warmer than the 1981-2010 average and the warmest first half of
the June. The previous record was 73.3 degrees in 2005. Records
date back to 1873.

Meanwhile during this same time period, the average temperature
at Rochester International Airport was 72.5 degrees. This was 7.1
degrees warmer than the 1981-2010 average and the warmest first
half of the June. The previous record was 71.1 degrees in 1956.
Records date back to 1886.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Wetenkamp
CLIMATE...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
832 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

IAZ018-019-029-030-WIZ043-044-055-061-171200-
Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Clayton-Juneau-Adams-Richland-Grant-
832 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Iowa,
and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Some thunderstorms are possible overnight. Before 10 pm an
isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out. Large hail and damaging
winds are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorm chances continue Saturday, with the greatest chance
over northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. While a few
stronger storms can't be ruled out, the greater risk for severe
storms will be found south of the local area.

Additional small chances for thunderstorms will continue Sunday
through Tuesday, and then again next Thursday. At this time, the
main threat from any storms appears to be lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be requested Saturday.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008>011-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041-042-053-
054-171200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-
Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-
La Crosse-Monroe-Vernon-Crawford-
832 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible overnight, however no severe weather is
expected. Lightning would be the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorm chances continue Saturday, with the greatest chance
over northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. While a few
stronger storms can't be ruled out, the greater risk for severe
storms will be found south of the local area.

Additional small chances for thunderstorms will continue Sunday
through Tuesday, and then again next Thursday. At this time, the
main threat from any storms appears to be lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be requested Saturday.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

baumgardt

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
901 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

IAZ008-009-018-019-170300-
Floyd-Howard-Chickasaw-Mitchell-
901 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MITCHELL...HOWARD...FLOYD AND
CHICKASAW COUNTIES...

At 900 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles northeast of
Floyd, or 10 miles southeast of Osage, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Elma around 920 PM CDT.
  Jerico around 940 PM CDT.
  Protivin around 955 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Alta Vista, North
Washington, Colwell, County Roads V 58 And A 46 and County Roads B 28
And V 18.

LAT...LON 4330 9270 4330 9208 4307 9208 4315 9276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 276DEG 25KT 4322 9262

Hollan