Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
703 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

At 3 PM, a weak boundary was located across central Iowa. Dew
points north of this boundary were in the lower and mid 50s and
around 60F south of it. The HRRR and RAP suggest this boundary
will slip northeast into northeast Iowa this afternoon and early
evening. As this occurs, the mean layer CAPES are forecast to
climb into the 500 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, a 500 to
700 mb speed max will increase the effective wind shear up to
60 knots. While the hodograph is favorable for splitting
supercells, any left movers will move quickly into a drier
environment, so their impact will be limited. Due to this, the SPC
1630Z Day 1 Convective Outlook moved the marginal risk up to the
Interstate 90 corridor and the slight risk into northeast Iowa and
a small portion of southwest Wisconsin. This risk is a very
conditional and highly dependent upon our dew points getting as
high as what the CAM models indicate (around 60F). If convection
can develop, the main severe weather threats would be large hail
and damaging wind (primarily based on the strong winds aloft and
inverted V in the sub-cloud layer).

From late Friday morning into Friday afternoon, another short
wave trough will move east through the region. The 0-1 km mean
layer CAPES climb into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. While the deep
layer shear is not that impressive, the 0-3 km shear does get into
the 25 to 35 knot range and there is an inverted V in the sub-
cloud layer, so maybe an isolated wind threat.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

On Friday night, it continues to look like a mesoscale convective
complex will develop in western Iowa on the northern edge of an
unstable air mass (2-4K J/kg) in southwest Iowa. This system will
then track either southeast through southeast Iowa and northern
Illinois or dive south into the Ozarks. In either scenario, this
would push the front across Iowa much further south. This has
been a trend in the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM. If this does indeed
occur, the threat of severe weather for Saturday afternoon and
night will likely to shift further south. Even if this does
occurs, the combination of a coupled jet and strong short wave
trough will still produce showers and scattered storms across the
Upper Mississippi River Valley for Saturday afternoon and night.

On Sunday, wrap around moisture and cold air aloft will result in
the development scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Strong cold air advection in the wake of this system will bring
much colder air into the region. Temperatures on Sunday and Monday
will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s and then slowly moderate
as we move into mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Thunderstorms
are expected to remain well south of the TAF sites this evening,
across northeast Iowa and extreme southwest Wisconsin.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Wetenkamp

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
140 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-053-161845-
Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Taylor-Clark-
Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-
140 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...western into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and
evening south of interstate 90. An isolated strong or severe
storm cannot be ruled out with large hail and damaging winds the
main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There are chances for thunderstorms much of Friday through
Tuesday.

A few of the storms Friday afternoon and evening across
northeast Iowa and nearby areas could be strong, with gusty winds
and small hail.

A few of the storms Saturday afternoon and evening could be
strong to severe, especially across northeast Iowa and far
southwest Wisconsin. The main threats would be damaging winds and
large hail.

The main threat from any storms Sunday, Monday and Tuesday looks
to be lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action needed today or tonight. As details become clearer, a
few spotter groups may be needed Saturday afternoon and evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-WIZ054-055-061-161845-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
140 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Iowa
and southwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Chances have increased for strong to severe storms. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening. If
these storms form, a few storms could be severe with the main
threats being large hail, damaging winds, and lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There are chances for thunderstorms much of Friday through
Tuesday.

A few of the storms Friday afternoon and evening across
northeast Iowa and nearby areas could be strong, with gusty winds
and small hail.

A few of the storms Saturday afternoon and evening could be
strong to severe, especially across northeast Iowa and far
southwest Wisconsin. The main threats would be damaging winds and
large hail.

The main threat from any storms Sunday, Monday and Tuesday looks
to be lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Isolated activation cannot be ruled out later today and early
evening. As details become clearer, a few spotter groups may be
needed Saturday afternoon and evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Baumgardt

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
614 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

IAZ018-019-152345-
Floyd-Chickasaw-
614 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CHICKASAW
COUNTY...

At 612 PM CDT, a strong to severe thunderstorm was located near
Clarksville, or 11 miles northwest of Waverly, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and quarter size hail or larger are
possible with this strong to severe thunderstorm.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Highway 18 And County V 56 and Republic.

Prepare now for possible severe weather. Move indoors and if a
warning is issued, take actions to protect life and property.

LAT...LON 4299 9208 4291 9208 4291 9274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 249DEG 32KT 4285 9261

Wetenkamp

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
652 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

IAZ029-160015-
Fayette-
652 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FAYETTE
COUNTY...

At 651 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Sumner, or 14
miles southeast of New Hampton, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 50 mph and quarter size hail or larger are
possible with this strong to severe thunderstorm.

Locations possibly impacted include...West Union, Fayette, Elgin,
Clermont, Hawkeye, Wadena, Randalia, Albany, Volga River State Park,
Brainard, Douglas, Donnan, Montauk Historic Site, Highway 93 And
County V 68 and Richfield.

Prepare now for possible severe weather. Move indoors and if a
warning is issued, take actions to protect life and property.

LAT...LON 4282 9208 4298 9208 4306 9162 4281 9162
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 249DEG 29KT 4290 9214

Wetenkamp

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