Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS La Crosse, WI

300 
WWUS53 KARX 162232 RRA
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
532 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

MNC169-162300-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0118.000000T0000Z-170616T2300Z/
Winona MN-
532 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WINONA COUNTY...

At 532 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Rollingstone,
or 9 miles northwest of Winona, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Stockton around 535 PM CDT. 
  Winona and Goodview around 540 PM CDT. 
  Fountain City around 545 PM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Wilson,
Utica, Minnesota City, Elba and Whitewater State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4415 9177 4413 9175 4413 9172 4410 9171
      4410 9168 4407 9166 4403 9159 4402 9151
      4400 9144 4393 9136 4393 9187 4398 9207
      4411 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 243DEG 22KT 4411 9184 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

JSB

070 
WWUS53 KARX 162252
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
552 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

MNC169-162300-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0118.000000T0000Z-170616T2300Z/
Winona MN-
552 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL WINONA COUNTY...

At 552 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Stockton, or 7
miles west of Winona, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

this severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Winona County, including the following locations: Wilson,
Minnesota City, Wyattville, County Roads 28 And 31 and I 90 Exit 249.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4415 9177 4413 9175 4413 9172 4410 9171
      4408 9169 4407 9166 4403 9159 4402 9151
      4400 9144 4393 9136 4393 9187 4402 9195
      4412 9202
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 251DEG 31KT 4403 9182 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

JSB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
236 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

At 2 PM, a short wave trough moving through northwest Wisconsin
was producing scattered showers and storms across central and
northern Wisconsin. This system will move east across northern
Wisconsin and be located in western Upper Michigan by this
evening. As this occurs, a dry line will settle south toward the
Interstate 90 corridor. Dew points will be in the mid and upper
50s north of the dry line and in the lower and mid 60s south of
it.

As temperatures climb into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon,
the 0-1 km mean layer CAPES will climb into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg
range south of the Interstate 94. This CAPE will be building ahead
of an approaching short wave trough (currently located over
western Minnesota). The CAM models are in good agreement
thunderstorms will develop across east-central and south-central
Minnesota between 16.19z and 16.21z. The latest RAP suggest that
there will be sufficient deep shear that they will quickly develop
into supercell thunderstorms and then as their cold pools
coalesce the 0-3 km shear would favor a line of storms to move
through east and southeast through the area. The main severe
weather threat with these storms will be large hail and wind
through 16.23z, and then evolve into primarily a wind threat which
would last through 17.03z. While there is a severe weather threat
across the entire area, the greatest chance looks to be along and
south of the Interstate 90 corridor where the instability will be
the greatest.

For Saturday afternoon and night, a stronger short wave and
surface cold front will be moving through the region. Like the
past couple of days, the best instability will be well south of
our forecast area. However, there will still be 1000 to
2500 J/kg 0-1 km mean layer CAPE from northeast Iowa into
southwest and central Wisconsin. There may be sufficient deep
shear for a few supercell storms to develop. Both the HRRR and ARW
suggest this possibility. Meanwhile the NMM would suggest that
these storms would develop across east-central Iowa, northern
Illinois, and southeast Wisconsin. If this does occur, the primary
severe weather threats would be large hail and damaging winds.
There was a slight shift southward in the latest SPC Day 2
Outlook and this seems realistic.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

In the wake of this system, a much cooler air mass will move into
the region. 850 mb temperatures will fall into the 7 to 9C range
by Sunday afternoon and remain there for much of Monday. As a
result, high temperatures will only range from the upper 60s to
mid 70s. With 950 to 800 mb lapse rates over 8 C/km and 0-1 km
mean layer CAPES up to 1000 J/kg, scattered diurnally driven
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across much of the Upper Mississippi River Valley.

On Wednesday and Wednesday night, another short wave trough will
move through the region. While the GFS and ECMWF are still
differing on the amount of instability ahead of this system,
there looks to be sufficient shear for the potential of supercell
development. This system will have to watched over the next
several days.

From Thursday into Friday, the models hint at additional short
wave troughs moving along the US/Canadian border, but there has
been little consistency in the timing of these system. Due to
this, there is a broad brush of showers and thunderstorms chances
during this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Generally VFR conditions are expected during this period.
Scattered showers/storms may form this afternoon/evening along a
weak frontal boundary. Although placement is somewhat uncertain,
did include a mention of VCTS at KLSE and VCSH at KRST late this
afternoon, although as confidence in location/coverage of
convection increases, adjustments will be needed. MVFR/IFR
conditions could briefly accompany any storms. Mainly
south/southwest winds are expected today into tonight, pending
exact placement of the weak surface boundary and erratic winds
around any storms. It is possible daytime winds could be a bit
gustier, depending on the depth of diurnal mixing through the
day. Fog could not be ruled out early Saturday, but confidence in
cloud/precip trends limits confidence in any fog at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

The first half of June was the warmest at both La Crosse WI and
Rochester MN.

Through the first half of June, the average temperature at
La Crosse Regional Airport was 75.3 degrees. This was 8.3 degrees
warmer than the 1981-2010 average and the warmest first half of
the June. The previous record was 73.3 degrees in 2005. Records
date back to 1873.

Meanwhile during this same time period, the average temperature
at Rochester International Airport was 72.5 degrees. This was 7.1
degrees warmer than the 1981-2010 average and the warmest first
half of the June. The previous record was 71.1 degrees in 1956.
Records date back to 1886.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...JM
CLIMATE...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-171730-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are looking more likely across the entire area in
the 4-10 pm window. Severe storms are likely as well, especially
near and south of Interstate 90. An area of thunderstorms is
expected to develop in the late afternoon, near or east of
Interstate 35, and shift east through 10 pm. Isolated storms may
also form east of that area.

Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Southwestern
Wisconsin and northeast Iowa seem to have a higher chance of more
widespread damaging winds. Locally heavy rain could also cause
some temporary minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorm chances continue Saturday, with the greatest chance
over northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. While a few
stronger storms can't be ruled out, the greater risk for severe
storms will be found south of the local area.

Additional small chances for thunderstorms will continue Sunday
through Tuesday, and then again next Thursday. At this time, the
main threat from any storms appears to be lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is looking more probable in the 4-10 pm window,
especially near and south of interstate 90.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

baumgardt

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
439 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-162300-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Wabasha-Dodge-
Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Including the cities of Osage, Cresco, Decorah, Charles City,
New Hampton, Oelwein, Wabasha, Dodge Center, Rochester, Winona,
Austin, Preston, and Caledonia
439 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

...Strong to Severe Storms Late This Afternoon...

Through 6 PM...strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop or move into southeast Minnesota and parts of northeast
Iowa. These storms will be capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds.

If you have outdoor plans late this afternoon, be weather aware
and move to a place of safety is severe storms move into your
area.

Boyne

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
453 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             2 ESE ROCHESTER         44.01N 92.45W
06/16/2017  E1.00 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN
            SOUTHEAST ROCHESTER. RELAYED VIA KTTC.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
459 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     HAIL             2 E ROCHESTER           44.01N 92.43W
06/16/2017  E1.75 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED ON THE
            SOUTHEAST SIDE OF ROCHESTER. RELAYED VIA
            KAAL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
508 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     HAIL             1 NW CHESTER            44.02N 92.35W
06/16/2017  E1.50 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
516 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             2 WSW FILLMORE          43.74N 92.31W
06/16/2017  E1.50 INCH       FILLMORE           MN   COCORAHS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
517 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             5 WSW CUMMINGSVILLE     43.84N 92.35W
06/16/2017  M1.75 INCH       FILLMORE           MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&