Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS La Crosse, WI

639 
WWUS53 KARX 170433
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1133 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

MNC045-170515-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-170517T0515Z/
Fillmore MN-
1133 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR FILLMORE COUNTY...

At 1133 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles southeast of Spring Valley to 6 miles
southwest of Harmony, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Law enforcement. These storms have had a history of 
         producing wind damage and gusts to 60 mph in northeast 
         Iowa. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

These severe storms will be near...
  Preston and Wykoff around 1145 PM CDT. 
  Fountain around 1150 PM CDT. 
  Lanesboro and Chatfield around 1155 PM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Fillmore, Rushford Village, Washington, Cherry Grove and Bristol.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4385 9233 4384 9175 4350 9209 4350 9245
      4358 9245
TIME...MOT...LOC 0433Z 212DEG 41KT 4361 9233 4352 9213 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AJ

879 
WWUS53 KARX 170452
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1152 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

MNC045-170500-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-170517T0515Z/
Fillmore MN-
1152 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FILLMORE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with these thunderstorms.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for 
northeastern Iowa and southeastern Minnesota. Conditions remain 
favorable for severe thunderstorms to develop.

LAT...LON 4385 9233 4384 9175 4350 9209 4350 9245
      4358 9245
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 218DEG 43KT 4377 9216 4368 9196 

$$

AJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
630 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

All eyes on thunderstorm chances/severe potential tonight through
Wednesday. Some scattered thunderstorms will continue late this
afternoon and evening generally across the northwest third of the
forecast area where the CAP is weaker within plume of 1000 to 2500
J/kg of MLCAPE. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

Of greater concern will be late this evening and overnight as a
leading short-wave lifts northeastward across central MN into
northwest WI. Models in reasonable agreement showing a nocturnal
convective complex develop with this wave, impacting northeast IA,
southeast MN, and north central WI. When combined with strong
mid-level moisture advection along a strengthening low-level jet
and PWATs near 1.5 inches (2-3 standard deviations above normal),
expect periods of heavy rain. Flooding, including river flooding
and flash flooding are possible, especially for those areas across
southeast MN that received 2-5 inches of rain last night. As a
result, will issue a Flash Flood Watch for southeast MN and
Buffalo/Trempealeau Counties in WI from 02-12Z late this evening
and overnight where 1-3 inches (locally more) of rain are
possible. See hydrology discussion below for additional details.
Outside of the heavy rain threat, instability/shear profiles still
support large hail and damaging winds as well.

For Wednesday, the cut-off closed low across AZ will eject
northeastward and near the NE/SD/IA border by 00Z Thursday. Strong
deep layer shear will accompany this wave, although instability is
still in question as the warm sector looks quite messy with the
potential for substantial cloud cloud. If higher instability can
be realized, strong to severe storms are once again possible for
much of the area. With no real change in air mass, additional
heavy rainfall is also possible, but will address that issue and
possible headlines after tonight's convection.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Thursday still looking mostly dry with short-wave ridging aloft.
That said, it will be cloudy and cool with a brisk north-northwest
wind. Temperatures only expected to reach the mid 50s to mid 60s
for most places. Shower chances return Friday as a weak short-wave
attempts to undercut the ridge, but with instability well south of
the area, not expecting any thunder at this time. Unseasonably
cool, cloudy conditions will continue with highs in the 50s.

Friday night through Tuesday, the main concern will be a strong
upper-level low moving through the Northern Plains region. There
are only minor differences on the placement of the attendant
surface low between the GFS and ECMWF, and both bring the center
of the surface low generally over our area. This should bring a
prolonged period of rain showers and below normal temperatures to
our area this weekend. The bulk of the rain looks to fall on
Saturday, with the system departing by late Sunday. We will remain
in an active pattern into next week, with another shortwave
swinging down from Canada late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

A warm front, along with bits of upper level energy/shortwave trough
will work together to produce rounds of showers and thunderstorms
tonight through Wed. Meso models and current radar trends favor
keeping KRST/KLSE dry for the early part of the evening - and
potential dry through the night for KLSE. Expect another round for
Wed morning but KLSE again could favor dry conditions until later in
the day Wed. KRST is closer to the "action" and will have a higher
threat for shra/ts through the forecast period. While mostly VFR,
see some potential for MVFR cigs late overnight into Wed morning.
Expect vsby restrictions with any thunderstorm.

 &&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

A swath of 2-5 inches of rain fell last night across portions of
southeast MN from north of Dodge Center and Rochester through much
of Winona County and into northern Houston County. Smaller rivers
and streams responded rapidly to this rainfall with some localized
flooding. An additional 1-3 inches (possibly more) are possible
late this evening and overnight as another convective complex
moves across the region. With wet soils and elevated water levels
from last night, any additional rainfall may result in flash
flooding and/or river flooding. As a result, a Flash Flood Watch
is in effect tonight for southeast MN into portions of north-
central WI.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for WIZ032-033.

MN...Flash Flood Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rogers
LONG TERM...Rogers/Hollan
AVIATION...Rieck
HYDROLOGY...Rogers

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
438 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ032-033-172145-
Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Buffalo-
Trempealeau-
438 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect tonight across southeast
Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Thunderstorms moving through
tonight may produce 1-3 inches of rain. Locally higher amounts are
possible for areas that see repeated strong thunderstorms. This
heavier rainfall may result in flash flooding and river flooding.

In addition, thunderstorms late this afternoon through tonight
could be strong to severe, capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday into Wednesday evening. A
few storms Wednesday afternoon and evening could be strong to
severe, capable of producing hail, gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall.

Another round of widespread rain looks to spread across the area
Friday into Saturday night, with amounts of 3/4 inch to locally 2
inches appearing likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later this evening. Severe
weather reports, including heavy rainfall and flooding are
appreciated through tonight.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-WIZ034-041>044-053>055-061-172145-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-
Richland-Grant-
438 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa...and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible through tonight across northeast Iowa
and southwest into central Wisconsin. Some storms may be strong
to possibly severe with large hail, damaging winds, and locally
heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday into Wednesday evening. A
few storms Wednesday afternoon and evening could be strong to
severe, capable of producing hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy
rainfall.

Another round of widespread rain looks to spread across the area
Friday into Saturday night, with amounts of 3/4 inch to locally 2
inches appearing likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later this evening. Severe
weather reports, including heavy rainfall are appreciated through
tonight.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

WIZ017-029-172145-
Taylor-Clark-
438 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of north central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon into Tonight

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 10 pm this evening.

Thunderstorms are likely through tonight across north central
Wisconsin. Some storms may be severe with large hail, damaging
winds, isolated tornadoes, and locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday into Wednesday evening. A
few storms Wednesday afternoon and evening could be strong to
severe, capable of producing hail and gusty winds. Locally heavy
rains remain possible as well.

Another round of widespread rain looks to spread across the area
Friday into Saturday night, with amounts of 3/4 inch to locally 2
inches appearing likely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening. Severe
weather reports, including heavy rainfall are appreciated through
tonight.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

DAS/Rogers

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1046 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E CHARLES CITY        43.07N 92.64W
05/16/2017  M48 MPH          FLOYD              IA   AWOS

            AT AIRPORT

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1048 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     HAIL             2 SSW ROCHESTER         43.99N 92.49W
05/16/2017  M0.75 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED BY KAAL TV

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1052 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     HAIL             7 SE RIPLINGER          44.74N 90.32W
05/16/2017  E0.25 INCH       CLARK              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CJA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1103 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1034 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORA SPRINGS            43.14N 93.01W
05/16/2017                   FLOYD              IA   911 CALL CENTER

            LOTS OF TREES DOWN ON WEST END OF COUNTY AND POWER
            OUTAGES IN NORA SPRINGS

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1110 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1104 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W OSAGE               43.28N 92.85W
05/16/2017                   MITCHELL           IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES BLOWN DOWN BETWEEN OSAGE AND MITCHELL

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1112 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALTA VISTA              43.20N 92.42W
05/16/2017                   CHICKASAW          IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES BLOWN DOWN

&&

SHEA