Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
617 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

.UPDATE...This Evening
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

Thunderstorms have now pushed into northern Wisconsin and are
producing hail, up to around quarter size, over Price County, and
potentially larger has reflectivity continues to increase on radar.

We will see a break in the action locally until late this evening,
most likley closer to 9 PM when scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the cold front and shortwave working in
from the west. A few of these storms may produce large hail and
gusty winds. Overall, the severe thunderstorm threat appears to be
diminishing. Latest mesoscale models runs are starting to back
off on the area coverage of storms later this evening into the
overnight especially the HRRR. The latest SPC Mesoanalysis
indicates 1500 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE across much of the area. A
strong CAP remains in place so not anticipating any surface based
storms. So, the main threat from any storms, if they develop later
this evening, would be large hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

All eyes on thunderstorm chances and severe potential late this
afternoon/evening and into the early overnight hours. 18Z water
vapor loop shows a potent low spinning across the northern Rockies
with its attendant surface low centered near Omaha. A warm front
extends northeastward across northwest IA, southeast MN, and into
north-central WI. Surface low is forecast to lift northeastward
along this boundary, nearing the MN/WI border in the vicinity of
Wabasha by 06-09Z tonight. 0-3 km MUCAPE soars to between 1500 and
25000 J/kg late this afternoon and evening south of the warm
front. 0-3 km bulk shear is also quite strong, ranging from 40 to
50 kts with area soundings showing strong turning in the lowest
couple kilometers late this afternoon. That said, there is a
strong elevated warm layer from 2-3 km, essentially capping the
atmosphere with CIN values well in excess of 100 J/kg for most of
the forecast area. Deep layer lift is also lacking with the best
500-300 hPa potential vorticity advection delayed until later this
evening.

If cap can break early so that boundary layer rich instability/shear
is available for storm development, will need to watch for supercell
development near and north of the warm front this afternoon and
early evening. Based on latest convection allowing models (CAMs),
this outcome is looking less likely as HRRR/RAP now show some more
generic thunderstorms developing this afternoon mainly north of I-
94, but quickly lifting activity north of forecast area by 23-00Z.
More likely scenario is for a convective complex to develop
somewhere across southwest/south-central MN late this afternoon
and early evening in the less capped environment north of the warm
front and then race northeastward coincident with strong short-
wave/upper level forcing moving through the region. CAMs bring
this complex into the forecast area between 01-07Z mainly along
and north of I- 90. By this time, hodographs straighten out,
suggesting more of a linear storm mode with the primary threats
being large hail and damaging wind. Convective development/severe
potential farther south in the vicinity of the cold front less
certain given lingering capping issues. Most if not all convection
should move east of the forecast area by 09Z tonight.

For Monday, scattered rain showers are possible mainly north of I-90
in the deformation axis on the backside of the departing surface
low. Skies will be cloudy with winds shifting to the northwest,
gusting at times to 25 mph. Temperatures will be cooler with a large
gradient across the forecast area. Highs will range from the upper
40s across the northwest to the lower 60s across the southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

If any lingering showers can hold together into Monday night,
there could be a brief period of a wintry mix across the northwest
half of the forecast area due to a loss of ice aloft and cooling
surface temperatures to near freezing. Confidence of occurrence
is low.

Tuesday will see decreasing cloud cover through the day as high
pressure builds across the region. Cooler temperatures will continue
with highs mainly in the lower 50s. Most of Wednesday also looking
dry, but clouds will increase again ahead of the next short-wave
Wednesday night. Temperatures will warm back into the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

Good model agreement of a shortwave and associated rain showers
sliding through the area Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
The 09.12Z GFS and 09.12Z ECMWF then keep Thursday dry, before
diverging with their solutions on Friday. While both models bring
a cold front and rain through the area on Saturday, the ECMWF
brings a shortwave through the area ahead of the front, meaning
the rain would begin Friday evening. The GFS keeps this feature
well south of the area. The cold front and rain then shift out of
the area by late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, dropping
high temperatures from the 60s on previous days, to near to
slightly below normal values in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

Plan on conditions lowering to MVFR tonight in stratus and perhaps
a few thunderstorms. KRST looks to have the best chance of seeing
at thunderstorm or two later this evening so have included VCTS in
the TAF starting at 04Z through 06Z. Confidence was too low to
include a thunderstorms mention at KLSE but will have to watch
trends closely this evening. Plan on MVFR stratus persisting at
the TAF site through much of the day Monday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

UPDATE...Wetenkamp
SHORT TERM...Rogers
LONG TERM...Rogers/CA
AVIATION.....RRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
240 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

IAZ011-030-WIZ043-044-053>055-061-101945-
Allamakee-Clayton-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
240 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa...central Wisconsin and southwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few thunderstorms may develop this evening and tonight. While
the overall severe threat is low, a few storms may produce hail
and gusty wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008-009-018-019-MNZ079-086>088-094-095-WIZ017-029-032>034-
101945-
Mitchell-Howard-Floyd-Chickasaw-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-
Mower-Fillmore-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-
240 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota...central Wisconsin...
north central Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon mainly north
of Interstate 94 and then become more widespread later this
evening and overnight. Some storms may become severe with large
hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ010-029-MNZ096-WIZ041-042-101945-
Winneshiek-Fayette-Houston-La Crosse-Monroe-
240 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa...southeast Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight. Some
of these storms could become severe with a risk for large hail and
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for a few hours this evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Rogers

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1036 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 PM     HAIL             2 SSE DOUGLAS           44.08N 92.56W
04/09/2017  M1.25 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA VIA SOCIAL MEDIA MEASURED
            NEAR HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL ON THE NORTHWEST
            SIDE OF ROCHESTER.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1038 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

WIZ017-029-100415-
Taylor-Clark-
1038 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CLARK AND TAYLOR
COUNTIES...

At 1038 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles north of
Stanley, or 25 miles south of Ladysmith, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Medford around 1110 PM CDT.
  Chelsea, Westboro and Rib Lake around 1115 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Stetsonville,
Goodrich, Gilman, Lublin and Polley.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4512 9004 4512 9020 4503 9020 4503 9031
      4502 9032 4500 9092 4525 9092 4538 9066
      4538 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0338Z 246DEG 41KT 4511 9094

Wetenkamp

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1045 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HAIL             2 SE DOUGLAS            44.09N 92.54W
04/09/2017  E1.50 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED PING PONG
            BALL SIZE HAIL ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
            ROCHESTER.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1048 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             5 W HAYFIELD            43.89N 92.95W
04/09/2017  M1.00 INCH       DODGE              MN   PUBLIC

            FACEBOOK PHOTO REPORT.

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1051 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 PM     HAIL             5 W GILMAN              45.16N 90.90W
04/09/2017  E0.88 INCH       TAYLOR             WI   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL FIVE MILES
            WEST OF GILMAN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1101 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             2 E KASSON              44.03N 92.70W
04/09/2017  M1.00 INCH       DODGE              MN   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC MEASURED QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR THE
            CITY OF KASSON.

&&