Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS La Crosse, WI

170 
WWUS53 KARX 100335
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1035 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

MNC109-157-100400-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-170410T0400Z/
Olmsted MN-Wabasha MN-
1035 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR OLMSTED AND WABASHA COUNTIES...

At 1035 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Rochester,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Eyota and Chatfield around 1045 PM CDT. 
  Dover and Elgin around 1050 PM CDT. 
  Plainview around 1055 PM CDT. 

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Marion,
High Forest, Pleasant Grove, Douglas and Rock Dell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4419 9268 4419 9255 4437 9255 4437 9243
      4445 9243 4445 9224 4440 9205 4433 9192
      4429 9193 4427 9190 4420 9187 4419 9208
      4387 9208 4385 9210 4384 9269
TIME...MOT...LOC 0335Z 249DEG 33KT 4399 9236 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

JSB

226 
WWUS53 KARX 100356
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1056 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

MNC109-157-100406-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-170410T0400Z/
Olmsted MN-Wabasha MN-
1056 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR OLMSTED AND WABASHA COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 1100 PM CDT...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4419 9268 4419 9255 4437 9255 4437 9243
      4445 9243 4445 9224 4440 9205 4433 9192
      4429 9193 4427 9190 4420 9187 4419 9208
      4387 9208 4385 9210 4384 9269
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 234DEG 49KT 4412 9210 

$$

JSB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
617 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

.UPDATE...This Evening
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

Thunderstorms have now pushed into northern Wisconsin and are
producing hail, up to around quarter size, over Price County, and
potentially larger has reflectivity continues to increase on radar.

We will see a break in the action locally until late this evening,
most likley closer to 9 PM when scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the cold front and shortwave working in
from the west. A few of these storms may produce large hail and
gusty winds. Overall, the severe thunderstorm threat appears to be
diminishing. Latest mesoscale models runs are starting to back
off on the area coverage of storms later this evening into the
overnight especially the HRRR. The latest SPC Mesoanalysis
indicates 1500 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE across much of the area. A
strong CAP remains in place so not anticipating any surface based
storms. So, the main threat from any storms, if they develop later
this evening, would be large hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

All eyes on thunderstorm chances and severe potential late this
afternoon/evening and into the early overnight hours. 18Z water
vapor loop shows a potent low spinning across the northern Rockies
with its attendant surface low centered near Omaha. A warm front
extends northeastward across northwest IA, southeast MN, and into
north-central WI. Surface low is forecast to lift northeastward
along this boundary, nearing the MN/WI border in the vicinity of
Wabasha by 06-09Z tonight. 0-3 km MUCAPE soars to between 1500 and
25000 J/kg late this afternoon and evening south of the warm
front. 0-3 km bulk shear is also quite strong, ranging from 40 to
50 kts with area soundings showing strong turning in the lowest
couple kilometers late this afternoon. That said, there is a
strong elevated warm layer from 2-3 km, essentially capping the
atmosphere with CIN values well in excess of 100 J/kg for most of
the forecast area. Deep layer lift is also lacking with the best
500-300 hPa potential vorticity advection delayed until later this
evening.

If cap can break early so that boundary layer rich instability/shear
is available for storm development, will need to watch for supercell
development near and north of the warm front this afternoon and
early evening. Based on latest convection allowing models (CAMs),
this outcome is looking less likely as HRRR/RAP now show some more
generic thunderstorms developing this afternoon mainly north of I-
94, but quickly lifting activity north of forecast area by 23-00Z.
More likely scenario is for a convective complex to develop
somewhere across southwest/south-central MN late this afternoon
and early evening in the less capped environment north of the warm
front and then race northeastward coincident with strong short-
wave/upper level forcing moving through the region. CAMs bring
this complex into the forecast area between 01-07Z mainly along
and north of I- 90. By this time, hodographs straighten out,
suggesting more of a linear storm mode with the primary threats
being large hail and damaging wind. Convective development/severe
potential farther south in the vicinity of the cold front less
certain given lingering capping issues. Most if not all convection
should move east of the forecast area by 09Z tonight.

For Monday, scattered rain showers are possible mainly north of I-90
in the deformation axis on the backside of the departing surface
low. Skies will be cloudy with winds shifting to the northwest,
gusting at times to 25 mph. Temperatures will be cooler with a large
gradient across the forecast area. Highs will range from the upper
40s across the northwest to the lower 60s across the southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

If any lingering showers can hold together into Monday night,
there could be a brief period of a wintry mix across the northwest
half of the forecast area due to a loss of ice aloft and cooling
surface temperatures to near freezing. Confidence of occurrence
is low.

Tuesday will see decreasing cloud cover through the day as high
pressure builds across the region. Cooler temperatures will continue
with highs mainly in the lower 50s. Most of Wednesday also looking
dry, but clouds will increase again ahead of the next short-wave
Wednesday night. Temperatures will warm back into the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

Good model agreement of a shortwave and associated rain showers
sliding through the area Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
The 09.12Z GFS and 09.12Z ECMWF then keep Thursday dry, before
diverging with their solutions on Friday. While both models bring
a cold front and rain through the area on Saturday, the ECMWF
brings a shortwave through the area ahead of the front, meaning
the rain would begin Friday evening. The GFS keeps this feature
well south of the area. The cold front and rain then shift out of
the area by late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, dropping
high temperatures from the 60s on previous days, to near to
slightly below normal values in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

Plan on conditions lowering to MVFR tonight in stratus and perhaps
a few thunderstorms. KRST looks to have the best chance of seeing
at thunderstorm or two later this evening so have included VCTS in
the TAF starting at 04Z through 06Z. Confidence was too low to
include a thunderstorms mention at KLSE but will have to watch
trends closely this evening. Plan on MVFR stratus persisting at
the TAF site through much of the day Monday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

UPDATE...Wetenkamp
SHORT TERM...Rogers
LONG TERM...Rogers/CA
AVIATION.....RRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
240 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

IAZ011-030-WIZ043-044-053>055-061-101945-
Allamakee-Clayton-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
240 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa...central Wisconsin and southwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few thunderstorms may develop this evening and tonight. While
the overall severe threat is low, a few storms may produce hail
and gusty wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008-009-018-019-MNZ079-086>088-094-095-WIZ017-029-032>034-
101945-
Mitchell-Howard-Floyd-Chickasaw-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-
Mower-Fillmore-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-
240 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota...central Wisconsin...
north central Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon mainly north
of Interstate 94 and then become more widespread later this
evening and overnight. Some storms may become severe with large
hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ010-029-MNZ096-WIZ041-042-101945-
Winneshiek-Fayette-Houston-La Crosse-Monroe-
240 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa...southeast Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight. Some
of these storms could become severe with a risk for large hail and
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for a few hours this evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Rogers

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
947 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0946 PM     HAIL             LAKE CITY               44.44N 92.28W
04/09/2017  E0.50 INCH       WABASHA            MN   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC VIA SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTED HALF OF AN
            INCH TO PENNY SIZE HAIL IN THE CITY OF LAKE
            CITY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
958 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     HAIL             1 N SAINT ANSGAR        43.39N 92.92W
04/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       MITCHELL           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
959 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     HAIL             SAINT ANSGAR            43.38N 92.92W
04/09/2017  M1.25 INCH       MITCHELL           IA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC MEASURED QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE
            HAIL IN THE CITY OF ST. ANSGAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1006 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     HAIL             SAINT ANSGAR            43.38N 92.92W
04/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       MITCHELL           IA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC VIA SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTED QUARTER
            SIZE HAIL IN ST. ANSGAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1009 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     HAIL             STACYVILLE              43.44N 92.78W
04/09/2017  M1.25 INCH       MITCHELL           IA   PUBLIC

            TWITTER PHOTO REPORT.

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1014 PM CDT SUN APR 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     HAIL             2 S GENOA               44.08N 92.61W
04/09/2017  E1.00 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            AMATEUR RADIO REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL TWO
            MILES EAST OF OXBOW PARK.

&&