Severe Thunderstorm Warning 250, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
658 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, isolated to scattered showers and tstms
currently around the fcst area will continue to affect the region
this evening into tonight, and have accounted for this in the
TAFs. Additional tstms may develop again late Friday afternoon.
However, have omitted mention durg this time frame due to low
confidence as to whether or not any TAF site will be impacted.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 437 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A shift from the recent exceptionally wet pattern to a somewhat
drier (but not completely dry) pattern is underway as weaker and
more backed upper flow is expected Sat through Mon. As is usually
the case though, it will be difficult to break this pattern and
models are now hinting at a possible return to northwest flow as
early as Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Tonight through Friday night...A slight chance for a bit of severe
weather will be evident across the western half of the combined
Panhandles this afternoon and this evening. Just enough effective
shear could combine with upwards of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE to allow for a
bit of quasi-organized convection.  The best chance for anything
severe will be now through 9 PM. Another round of non-severe storms
may breeze through the area after midnight. Similar degrees of CAPE
but likely a little less shear will be noted tomorrow with the best
environment for a few strong storms probably in the eastern half of
the TX Panhandle.

Saturday and Sunday...These days will be more dry than wet. However,
given that most of the models are mixing dewpts out to the low to
mid 50s which just probably ain't happenin' over this wet
ground...decided to leave some token 20 pops in the aft/evening
hours both days.

Monday (eclipse day)...A shortwave in SW flow will bring with it
some good monsoonal moisture and likely result in extensive mid and
high cloud cover (not looking great right now for the eclipse).
Could also see some showers with this wave, especially in the west.

Tuesday and Wednesday...A cold front is progged by the ECMWF and GEM
to cross the area and hang up somewhere in the southern Panhandles.
Have thrown out the GFS solution for the most part as it shows
nothing of a front.  Moisture/mass convergence near the front should
be enough to provide a bit higher precip chcs Tue and Wed
supposing the ECMWF and GEM are the right models.

Temperatures...Temps throughout the next 7 days should be right
around normal for this time of year.

Simpson

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
416 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-181200-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
416 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are possible this evening and into the
overnight hours across the Panhandles. Wind and hail will be the
primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles Friday through Wednesday. A few storms that
develop during this time frame may become strong to marginally
severe, with strong wind gusts and hail the primary hazards. In
addition, heavy rainfall may accompany thunderstorms, which could
result in localized flooding or flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
423 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

TXZ011-172215-
Oldham TX-
423 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OLDHAM COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

At 423 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Glenrio, or 24 miles south of Nara Visa, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Oldham
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 10304 3551 10285 3528 10270 3518 10295
      3518 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 235DEG 18KT 3526 10305

MJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
509 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

TXZ011-016-172300-
Deaf Smith TX-Oldham TX-
509 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OLDHAM AND NORTH
CENTRAL DEAF SMITH COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 508 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Glenrio, or 23 miles west of Vega, moving east at 15
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Adrian.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 10291 3528 10291 3530 10253 3500 10253
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 276DEG 12KT 3520 10284

MJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
516 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

TXZ002-172300-
Sherman TX-
516 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SHERMAN COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM CDT...

At 516 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Stratford, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Texhoma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3623 10204 3638 10206 3649 10197 3649 10164
      3621 10163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 259DEG 12KT 3631 10195

MJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
653 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

TXZ011-012-016-017-180045-
Potter TX-Randall TX-Deaf Smith TX-Oldham TX-
653 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RANDALL...
SOUTHEASTERN OLDHAM...NORTHEASTERN DEAF SMITH AND SOUTHWESTERN POTTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 653 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Wildorado, or 14 miles east of Vega, moving east
at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Amarillo, Mescalero Park, Bushland and Timbercreek Canyon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 10224 3525 10223 3530 10180 3501 10182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 271DEG 16KT 3517 10218

MJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
700 PM CDT THU AUG 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     HAIL             15 WSW GRUVER           36.17N 101.66W
08/17/2017  E1.75 INCH       SHERMAN            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1700833

EA