Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
359 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and muggy air mass will be replaced as a cold front will
cross the region. There will be a chance for passing showers
and thunderstorms with some severe. Behind the cold front,
cooler and less humid air will move into the region for the mid
week period. Another frontal system will approach late Thursday
night and into the weekend, with the chance for more showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Instability in excess of 2KJ/kg resides from Albany south with
highest instability noted across mid Hudson Valley. Severe
storms have been occurring in this area of maximized
instability this afternoon with wind the culprit due to likely
wet microbursts. The HRRR shows most convection over by 22-23Z.

Drier air was filtering into the region with dew points dropping
into the 50s across northern and western New York. This trend
will continue into tonight.

Drier and more seasonable temperatures are expected through
Wednesday as the nose of the 1026MB surface high near James Bay
spreads its influence southward. Mean PWATs fall back to between
one half to three quarters of an inch as surface dewpoints fall
back further into the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure drifts east Wednesday night and Thursday
as mid/upper level short-wave ridging works across the area. Dry
weather continues with temperatures running slightly below
normal.

Subtle short-wave troughs sliding along the generally zonal
flow will bring a chance of showers for Thursday night into
Friday. Instability remains muted for Thursday night and Friday,
so will call just SHRA with no mention of thunder. Temperatures
remain on the cool side Friday.

Nearly zonal flow gives way to upper level ridging Friday night
and Saturday. Still maintain a low chance of showers and
thunderstorms for Saturday. Temperatures will rise to near
normal levels with dew points rising.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
This will be a wet period of high humidities...with showers and
thunderstorms each day through the weekend.  A backdoor cold front
to our west, harboring marine air over our forecast area, will help
to limit the amount of instability initially, but will also help to
keep sunshine to a minimum.  This feature begins to break down over
the weekend, and a cold front will slide through from the northwest
Monday night that will finally trigger a drying trend.

Temperatures will grow cooler each day, with high temperatures
from the mid 70s to mid 80s on Sunday, the mid 60s to lower 80s on
Tuesday.  Tuesday will be noticeably drier.  Saturday and Sunday
night lows will be mostly in the 60s...with lows Monday night from
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pre-frontal boundary was sliding south of I90 where some
scattered convection was developing. Due to the scattered nature
of this activity, we will place a VCTS into KALB-KPSF-KPOU at
this time. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions expected through the
TAF forecast cycle ending 18Z/WED.

Winds will become northwesterly to northerly tonight and
continue into Wednesday with sustained magnitudes 10kts or less
with some higher gusts from time to time just below 20kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening will
end as a cold front pushes south of the Albany Fire Weather
Zone.

RH values tonight will range from 75 to 100% tonight,
decreasing to 30 to 40% Wednesday, then rising to 85 to 100%
Wednesday night.

Winds will be northwest to north at 5 to 10 mph.

The next chance for widespread rain showers will be Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next
several days.

Recent dry weather has allowed elevated river levels to return
closer to normal flows. A cold front will push south of the
Albany HSA this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will accompany the front. Best precipitation coverage will be
along southern counties of Ulster, Dutchess, and Litchfield.
These showers will not have any impact on main stem rivers and
streams, but brief heavy downpours will be possible within any
thunderstorm. Although flash flooding is not anticipated, poor
drainage and urban areas could briefly see locally high water
during any thunderstorm.

Dry weather will then return once again for Wednesday into
Thursday. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
Friday into the weekend with another frontal system moving
through the area.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKeefe
SHORT TERM...OKeefe
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/OKeefe/Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/OKeefe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
447 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-082>084-VTZ013>015-141100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
447 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Herkimer, Hamilton, Fulton,
Montgomery, Saratoga, Schenectady, Warren and Washington counties in
east central and eastern New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a slight to low chance of a non-severe thunderstorm this
morning into this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ047-051>054-058>061-063>066-141100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Schoharie-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
447 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts and Ulster, Greene, Schoharie, Albany,
Rensselaer, Columbia and Dutchess counties in eastern and east
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. The Storm
Prediction Center has placed the region in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms, with the main threat being gusty winds. Heavy
rainfall is also possible with any thunderstorm, which may lead to
minor flooding of urban and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
326 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

VTZ013-014-132015-
Western Windham-Bennington-
326 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BENNINGTON AND
NORTHWESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES...

At 325 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Manchester
Center, or near Manchester, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Londonderry around 345 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Stratton Valley,
Windham, Bondville, Peru Town Center, Grafton, Stratton Acres,
Rawsonville, Intervale, South Windham and Barnumville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4308 7260 4306 7309 4324 7308 4330 7282
      4325 7282 4322 7269 4323 7260 4315 7258
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 259DEG 21KT 4317 7296

BGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
329 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW SYLVAN LAKE        41.62N  73.75W
06/13/2017                   DUTCHESS           NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE AND WIRES IN ROADWAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1703861

SND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
342 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE ARTHURSBURG        41.62N  73.76W
06/13/2017                   DUTCHESS           NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1703862

SND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
346 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE GREEN HAVEN       41.59N  73.70W
06/13/2017                   DUTCHESS           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1703863

SND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DEWITT MILLS            41.86N  73.89W
06/13/2017                   DUTCHESS           NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE ON HOME

0209 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DEWITT MILLS            41.86N  73.87W
06/13/2017                   DUTCHESS           NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW CLINTON HOLLOW    41.83N  73.83W
06/13/2017                   DUTCHESS           NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ALONG BROWNING ROAD.

0229 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N GRETNA              41.80N  73.85W
06/13/2017                   DUTCHESS           NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN IN ROADWAY

0309 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE ARTHURSBURG        41.62N  73.76W
06/13/2017                   DUTCHESS           NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN.

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW SYLVAN LAKE        41.62N  73.75W
06/13/2017                   DUTCHESS           NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE AND WIRES IN ROADWAY

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE GREEN HAVEN       41.59N  73.70W
06/13/2017                   DUTCHESS           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1703857 ALY1703859 ALY1703858 ALY1703860 ALY1703862
ALY1703861 ALY1703863

SND

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
402 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

CTZ013-NYZ066-132030-
Southern Litchfield-Eastern Dutchess-
402 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN LITCHFIELD AND
SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS COUNTIES...

At 402 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Pawling, moving
east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  New Milford around 420 PM EDT.
  Woodbury Center around 430 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Candlewood Springs,
Kinneys Corners, Candlewood Point, Baker Corner, Woodinville,
Roxbury, Bridgewater, River Road Reserve, Hurd Corners and Candlewood
Trails.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4149 7337 4151 7339 4149 7344 4152 7344
      4160 7348 4161 7352 4153 7353 4151 7367
      4152 7368 4164 7359 4152 7315 4151 7320
      4151 7332 4149 7333 4147 7332
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 271DEG 22KT 4153 7356

TAW