Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Albany, NY

938 
WWUS51 KALY 131925
SVSALY

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
325 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

NYC027-132000-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-170613T2000Z/
Dutchess NY-
325 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY...

At 325 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Hopewell
Junction, or 7 miles northwest of Pawling, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to trees, and power lines. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Pawling and Wingdale around 350 PM EDT. 

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Stormville, Baker Corner, Beekman, South Dover, Swartoutville, Green
Haven, New Hamburg, Clove Valley, Poughquag and Lomala.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4157 7396 4158 7395 4159 7396 4159 7395
      4165 7386 4165 7383 4166 7377 4169 7352
      4153 7353 4153 7360 4151 7368 4150 7378
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 288DEG 16KT 4162 7372 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TAW

420 
WWUS51 KALY 131947
SVSALY

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
347 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

NYC027-132000-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-170613T2000Z/
Dutchess NY-
347 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS COUNTY...

At 347 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Pawling, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to trees, and power lines. 

this severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Dutchess County, including the following locations:
Pecksville, Baker Corner, Woodinville, Shenandoah, Quaker Hill, Hurd
Corners and Holmes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4152 7384 4153 7383 4153 7382 4154 7382
      4155 7373 4159 7365 4165 7352 4153 7353
      4153 7360 4151 7368 4150 7378
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 288DEG 16KT 4159 7360 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TAW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
216 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and muggy air mass will be replaced as a cold front will
cross the region. There will be a chance for passing showers
and thunderstorms. Behind the cold front, cooler and less humid
air will move into the region for the mid week period. Another
frontal system will approach late Thursday night and into the
weekend, with the chance for more showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT...Convection was developing along the pre-
frontal trough axis which extended along and just south of I90.
Mesoscale windows from SPC and LAPS suggest SBCAPES were near or
just above 2K J/KG just south of this boundary. However, as
stated in previous discussions, mid level lapse rates were
marginal with values below 7 C/Km and best upper jet support
remains well north of the St Lawrence Valley. So convection
will mostly rely on the surface convergence. Mesoscale HRRR and
NAM3KM still differ with respect to overall coverage pattern for
the afternoon. HRRR remains quite robust yet current regional
radar observations are quite a bit less and the NAM3KM does not
capture upstream activity too well but quickly develops the
southern portions of the region through the afternoon hours. So
we will keep chance PoPs for these areas with slight chance PoPs
further north. The main cold front with a more significant
drier push of air was approach Lake Ontario where dewpoints were
into the 50s. This should move the region through the evening
hours and by sunrise Wednesday, drier air advection will be well
underway as frontal zone approaches the I80 corridor.

Drier and more seasonable temperatures are expected through
Wednesday as the nose of the 1026MB surface high near James Bay
spreads its influence southward. Mean PWATs fall back to
between one half to three quarters of an inch as surface
dewpoints fall back further into the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next storm system will be approaching from the Great Lakes
Thursday night with increasing clouds. Depending on its exact
speed, some showers may move into western areas by late in the
night, although this is still uncertain. Lows on Thursday night
will mainly be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Guidance is in agreement the longwave pattern across the northern
CONUS should be nearly zonal as we head into the weekend. Ridging
along the east coast is expected to continue to weaken as it shifts
farther eastward. Looking at an active northern stream with a trough
developing across the eastern CONUS by early next week as short
waves rotate about an upper level low that develops over Hudson Bay
Canada. The weather will be unsettled with boundaries and short
waves moving across the region. The model differs with the timing of
these features so have mainly chance pops through the period.
However on Friday, have gone with higher likely pops for showers as
a warm front gradually approaches from the west. With the warm front
expected to remain to our west have below normal temperatures for
Friday. Elevated instability is expected to move across the region
Friday night so have added the mention of thunder. Over the
weekend we should be in the warm sector thus warmer along
surface-based instability and the threat for thunderstorms
especially during the daytime.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pre-frontal boundary was sliding south of I90 where some
scattered convection was developing. Due to the scattered nature
of this activity, we will place a VCTS into KALB-KPSF-KPOU at
this time. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions expected through the
TAF forecast cycle ending 18Z/WED.

Winds will become northwesterly to northerly tonight and
continue into Wednesday with sustained magnitudes 10kts or less
with some higher gusts from time to time just below 20kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will be moving across the region today. RH values
will only fall to 50 percent this afternoon with some passing
scattered showers and thunderstorms thanks to the cold front.
West winds will become northwest at 5-10 mph. Not everywhere
will see rainfall, but any spot that sees a thunderstorm could
see a locally heavy downpour.

Behind the cold front, RH values will fall to 30-35 percent on
Wednesday afternoon with north winds of 5 to 10 mph with no
chance for precipitation. The next chance for widespread rain
showers will be Friday into Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next
several days.

Recent dry weather has allowed elevated river levels to return
closer to normal flows. A cold front will be crossing the region
today, which will allow for a a chance for scattered showers
and thunderstorms.  These rivers won't have a big impact on
main stem rivers and streams, but brief heavy downpours will be
possible within any thunderstorm. Although flash flooding is not
anticipated, poor drainage and urban areas could briefly see
locally high water during any thunderstorm.

Dry weather will then return once again for Wednesday into
Thursday. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
Friday into the weekend with another frontal system moving
through the area.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
447 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-082>084-VTZ013>015-141100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
447 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Herkimer, Hamilton, Fulton,
Montgomery, Saratoga, Schenectady, Warren and Washington counties in
east central and eastern New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a slight to low chance of a non-severe thunderstorm this
morning into this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ047-051>054-058>061-063>066-141100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Schoharie-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
447 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts and Ulster, Greene, Schoharie, Albany,
Rensselaer, Columbia and Dutchess counties in eastern and east
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. The Storm
Prediction Center has placed the region in a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms, with the main threat being gusty winds. Heavy
rainfall is also possible with any thunderstorm, which may lead to
minor flooding of urban and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
140 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

NYZ065-066-131815-
Eastern Dutchess-Western Dutchess-
140 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY...

At 139 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Rhinebeck,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Stanfordville around 155 PM EDT.
  Millbrook around 205 PM EDT.
  Amenia around 210 PM EDT.
  Dover Plains around 215 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Ellerslie, Salt Point,
Oniontown, Dutchess County Fairgrounds, Lithgow, Linden Acres, Dewitt
Mills, Millbrook Heights, Smithfield and Attlebury.

LAT...LON 4186 7395 4187 7394 4190 7396 4203 7387
      4190 7350 4185 7350 4170 7358
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 299DEG 24KT 4191 7384

ROK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
250 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DEWITT MILLS            41.86N  73.89W
06/13/2017                   DUTCHESS           NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE ON HOME

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1703857

SND

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
250 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

NYZ065-066-131930-
Eastern Dutchess-Western Dutchess-
250 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN DUTCHESS COUNTY...

At 250 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Red Oaks Mill,
or near Poughkeepsie, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Hopewell Junction around 305 PM EDT.
  Pawling and Wingdale around 330 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Stormville, Baker
Corner, Knapps Corner, Beekman, South Dover, Hoxie Corner, New
Hamburg, Clove Valley, Poughquag and Billings.

Heavy rainfall will also accompany this thunderstorm producing
ponding of water on roadways.

LAT...LON 4158 7396 4166 7395 4167 7395 4176 7391
      4170 7352 4153 7353 4153 7360 4151 7370
      4151 7375
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 288DEG 16KT 4166 7386

TAW