River Flood Warning 17, NWS Albany, NY

425 
WGUS81 KALY 070750
FLSALY


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
350 AM EDT Fri Apr 7 2017

NYC043-057-065-070820-
/O.CAN.KALY.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170407T1800Z/
/LTLN6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
350 AM EDT Fri Apr 7 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Mohawk River At Little Falls.
* At 3 AM Friday the stage was 14.6 feet and falling. 
* Flood stage is 15 feet.
* Impact...At 15 feet...The Minor flood stage. Water overflows onto 
  Route 5S near Fort Herkimer and farm fields are flooded.

&& 
 
                  Fld   Observed              Forecast
                                       8 am  2 pm  8 pm  2 am  8 am
Location         Stg   Stg  Day Time   Fri   Fri   Fri   Sat   Sat

Mohawk River
  Little Falls  15.0   14.6 Fri 03 AM  14.4  14.0  13.8  13.7  13.7
 
&& 
 
LAT...LON 4294 7488 4291 7475 4309 7466 4314 7482
                                      

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
812 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Another storm system will bring periods of rain to the area tonight
into Friday. This rainfall, along with some additional runoff from
snow melt, will result in some flooding of rivers as well as urban,
low lying and poor drainage areas. Temperatures should remain below
normal through Saturday, with seasonal readings Sunday, and above
normal temperatures early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 8 pm, water vapor imagery shows impressive dry slot
punching directly through eastern New York, with
deformation/trowal forcing over western New York. The dry slot
has provided a quick end to the heavier precipitation. Some of
the deformation precip may wrap into eastern portions of the
forecast area, but any additional precipitation is expected to
be less than 0.25 inches for the overnight hours, with the
possible exception of far northern Herkimer County where they
will be closer to the pivot point of the precip shield. Surface
low analyzed at 985 mb over south-central NY will pass just west
of the local area, with light winds becoming moderate southerly
overnight. Stronger downsloping east-southeasterly winds over
portions of the Berkshires/Taconics/Greens will diminish
somewhat as they turn more southerly.

Previous discussion...As of 420 PM EDT, strengthening surface
low over SE PA continues to track N/NE. As powerful vort max
over northern VA continues pivoting N, we expect the sfc low to
also track mainly northward through eastern PA, and into east
central NYS through 9 PM this evening.

A cluster of heavy rain and thunderstorms over NJ/NYC area will
pivot N/NW around these features. Expect periods of heavy rain
to spread northward over the next 2-4 hours, along with rumbles
of thunder. Individual cells are tracking rather fast, so hourly
rainfall rates are generally in the one quarter to one half inch
range. So, total rainfall for most areas from this cluster
should range from around one half inch to one inch, although
locally higher amts could occur.

Also, we still have had a few reports of freezing rain and icing
occurring across some higher elevations above 1800 feet across
the southern Greens and northern Berkshires. This icing
potential should gradually decrease over the next couple of
hours as this shallow elevated cold wedge dissipates.

Strong east/southeast winds will continue through sunset across
the higher terrain of the Taconics/southern VT and western MA.
Some gusts up to 45 mph will remain possible.

Once this cluster of rain/thunderstorms tracks north, we expect
rain to taper off from south to north rapidly between roughly
8-10 PM.

We will have to watch for a period of strong southeast to south
winds within north/south oriented valleys overnight as the
deepening low tracks near or west of the Hudson Valley. Some
gusts over 35 mph could occur.

Some snow could mix in with the rain across high peaks of the
western Adirondacks toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday-Friday night, as the upper level trough moves slowly
eastward, cooling aloft should allow for low level instability,
along with lots of clouds and numerous showers of rain, with
some snow expected for higher elevations of the southern
Adirondacks, esp for Friday night, when 2-4 inches could occur.
Elsewhere, scattered coatings to up to an inch could occur for
elevations mainly above 1000 FT across portions of the
Adirondacks, and southern Greens. Some wet snow or graupel could
mix in with rain showers even in lower elevations for Friday
afternoon/night. It will also become rather breezy as
west/northwest winds increase late Friday afternoon/night. Some
gusts up to 35 mph could occur.

Saturday-Saturday night, Some lingering clouds and snow/rain
showers Saturday morning should give way to very gradual
improvement later in the day, with clearing becoming more
pronounced Saturday night. It will remain breezy, esp Sat
afternoon. Highs Sat should reach the 40s to lower 50s by late
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This period will begin quietly and end quietly...with some showery
conditions in between.  A high pressure ridge will give way to
developing low pressure over the upper midwest.  Increasingly
unseasonably warm conditions, with increasing POPS are expected
ahead of the cold front associated with this system, which will
slide across our forecast area around Tuesday night. Showers
and thunderstorms are possible ahead of it, with lingering
showers behind it, and improving conditions toward the end of
next week, with temperatures returning to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Steady rainfall has ended across the terminals, with mainly
light showers possible for the remainder of the night. CIGS have
been at MVFR levels in the wake of the precip, and still have
the potential for IFR early in the TAF period with slackening
winds as a surface low tracks through the region. Have kept
conditions MVFR for the majority of the night, however.

Additional showers are possible across the terminals on Friday,
especially at KGFL/KPSF, but they are not expected to be very
heavy. May see a slow partial clearing trend into the
afternoon, but MVFR cigs are expected at least into the late
morning hours.

Winds early in the TAF period will be variable at 10 kt or less,
except for at KPSF where easterly gusts to 20 kt are likely.
Some wind shear remains in the forecast early in the period at
KGFL/KPOU. After 03-05Z, winds will turn southerly with some
gusts to 15-20 kt possible. Winds will become west- southwest
with gusts to 25 kt on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another storm system will bring a widespread rain to the area
today into Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Flood Watch remains in effect into Saturday morning.

River levels are elevated across the region and the ground is
quite saturated from the recent rainfall and snow melt.

A widespread 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is expected today
into Friday. This rainfall, along with some additional runoff
from snow melt, will allow for many rivers to reach or exceed
flood stage. The most susceptible will be the upper Hudson
River, Hoosic River and Housatonic River basins. The majority of
the flooding will be minor, however cannot completely rule out
some localized moderate flooding.

In addition some minor flooding of urban, low lying and poor
drainage areas is possible this afternoon when the heaviest
rainfall is expected. Ponding of water will lead to some road
closures and standing water will be present in fields and yards.

Chances for showers will decrease Friday night into Saturday
with dry weather expected Saturday afternoon into early next
week. River levels will slowly recede, however mild/warm
temperatures will continue to melt any remaining snow cover.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NYZ032-033-038>043-
     047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for VTZ013>015.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/Thompson
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...Thompson
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
427 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

MAZ001-025-NYZ054-061-VTZ013-014-071100-
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Eastern Rensselaer-
Eastern Columbia-Bennington-Western Windham-
427 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Massachusetts,
northern and central Taconics and much of southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

In addition, strong east to southeast winds are expected to gust
to 35 to 45 mph through this evening. If stronger winds are expected
then a wind advisory will be issued.

Also, there is a slight chance for thunderstorms through this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any rainfall amounts and flooding
to the National Weather Service.

CTZ001-013-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>053-058>060-063>066-082>084-VTZ015-
071100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-
Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-
Northern Warren-Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Eastern Windham-
427 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Capital District, western
and southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga region, Mohawk Valley,
Schoharie Valley, eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, southern
Taconics, northwestern Connecticut and the Connecticut River Valley
of southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Also, there is a slight chance for thunderstorms through this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any rainfall amounts and flooding
to the National Weather Service.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
432 PM EDT THU APR 6 2017

CTZ001-013-NYZ064>066-062130-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Eastern Dutchess-Western
Dutchess-Eastern Ulster-
432 PM EDT THU APR 6 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LITCHFIELD...EASTERN
ULSTER AND DUTCHESS COUNTIES...

At 431 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Wappingers Falls to Newtown. Movement was
north at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

These storms will be near...
  Red Oaks Mill around 435 PM EDT.
  Poughkeepsie, Highland, Fairview and Woodbury Center around 440 PM
  EDT.
  New Milford, Hyde Park and Pleasant Valley around 445 PM EDT.
  New Preston and Staatsburg around 450 PM EDT.
  Kingston, Rhinebeck, Litchfield and Port Ewen around 455 PM EDT.
  Red Hook, Cornwall Bridge and Lake Katrine around 500 PM EDT.
  Saugerties and Saugerties South around 505 PM EDT.
  Falls Village around 510 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Norrie Heights,
South Canaan, Lithgow, Katsbaan, Hoxie Corner, Linden Acres, Elting
Corners, Wrightville, Salisbury and South Amenia.

Moderate to heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and
may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.  Remember, Turn Around Don't Drown.

LAT...LON 4146 7400 4159 7395 4161 7408 4215 7397
      4213 7391 4208 7393 4198 7353 4205 7349
      4204 7301 4197 7303 4197 7289 4181 7295
      4180 7302 4164 7298 4156 7316 4151 7316
      4147 7333 4149 7344 4167 7352 4153 7353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 187DEG 49KT 4161 7392 4144 7334

BGM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
441 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

MAZ001-025-NYZ043-053-054-060-061-084-VTZ013-014-070000-
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Northern Washington-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Columbia-
Eastern Columbia-Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-
Including the cities of Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, Florida,
North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, South Egremont,
Huletts Landing, Whitehall, Granville, Troy, Berlin,
Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, Hudson, New Lebanon,
Hudson Falls, Fort Edward, Cambridge, Greenwich, Middle Falls,
North Easton, Stamford, Bennington, Woodford State Park, Pownal,
Stratton, and Londonderry
441 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

...Intermittent strong wind gusts possible through 7 PM...

Strong east to southeast winds may briefly gust up to 50 mph
through 7 PM across portions of the Taconics, southern Green
Mountains, and Berkshires.

Motorists should exercise caution, and be prepared to encounter
strong wind gusts, especially when crossing elevated roadways
such as bridges and overpasses. These winds may make driving
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
500 PM EDT THU APR 6 2017

MAZ001-025-NYZ052>054-059>061-062300-
Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Eastern Albany-Eastern
Columbia-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern
Rensselaer-
500 PM EDT THU APR 6 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BERKSHIRE...COLUMBIA...
EASTERN ALBANY...EASTERN GREENE AND RENSSELAER COUNTIES...

At 458 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Staatsburg to near Litchfield.
Movement was north at 55 mph.

Winds in excess of 50 mph are possible with these storms.

These storms will be near...
  Clermont around 515 PM EDT.
  Livingston, Canaan and Ashley Falls around 520 PM EDT.
  Catskill, Claverack, Sheffield and Sandisfield around 525 PM EDT.
  Hudson, Athens, Philmont, Lorenz Park and Claverack-Red Mills
  around 530 PM EDT.
  Coxsackie and Otis around 535 PM EDT.
  Lee, Valatie and Kinderhook around 540 PM EDT.
  Lenox, New Baltimore, Ravena and Becket around 545 PM EDT.
  Pittsfield, Nassau, Castleton-On-Hudson and Selkirk around 550 PM
  EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Shakers, Bleecker
Stadium, Brookview, Van Hoesen Station, North Hancock, Cheshire
Harbor, Burden, Beckers Corners, Otter Hook and Climax.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Interstate 90 between exits 8 and 1s, and between exits 8 and 6-5A.
 Interstate 87 between exits 1 and 6, near exit 2 , near exit 4, and
between exits 2-4 and 9.
 Interstate 787 between exits 2 and 8-7.

Moderate to heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and
may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.  Motorists should exercise caution, and be
prepared to encounter strong wind gusts, especially when crossing
elevated roadways such as bridges and overpasses. These winds may
make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

LAT...LON 4239 7301 4238 7307 4233 7306 4231 7303
      4231 7300 4215 7306 4215 7307 4204 7310
      4205 7352 4198 7353 4200 7371 4208 7393
      4213 7391 4215 7396 4220 7396 4277 7386
      4280 7375 4278 7369 4279 7367 4266 7296
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 188DEG 47KT 4186 7386 4176 7328

BGM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
547 PM EDT THU APR 6 2017

CTZ001-013-062345-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-
547 PM EDT THU APR 6 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LITCHFIELD COUNTY...

At 545 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms with moderate to
heavy rainfall were located along a line extending from Litchfield
to Meriden. Movement was northeast at 60 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

These storms will be near...
  Canton, New Hartford, New Hartford Center and Winsted around 600
  PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Cornwall, West
Torrington, South Canaan, Haight Vineyard, Wrightville, Salisbury,
Marble Dale, East Litchfield, Taconic and North Kent.

Moderate to heavy rainfall are also occurring with these storms, and
may cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Occasional cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4154 7345 4160 7348 4169 7341 4167 7352
      4168 7352 4205 7349 4204 7301 4197 7303
      4197 7289 4189 7294 4181 7295 4180 7302
      4164 7298 4156 7316 4152 7316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 230DEG 64KT 4173 7318 4156 7277

BGM