Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
407 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will push a cold front across the region
through this evening. The system will then lift into New
England over the weekend. High pressure returns early to mid
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
***Confirmed EF-0 tornado in Chowan County, NC and EF-1 tornado
   in Dinwiddie County, VA. Please see latest LSR and PNS for
   more information.***

Sfc low pressure situated over the central Appalachians as of
early afternoon will push a cold front into and across the
region through sunset. Pcpn continues to diminish across
eastern VA and NE NC and will slowly push offshore thru late
afternoon. Breaks in the cloud cover are working across the
Piedmont and I-95 corridor ahead of the front and this is where
we'll have to watch for additional isold/wdly sct shwr/tstm
development into this evening. If any stronger storm is able to
form, small hail and gusty winds would be the primary threats.
Otherwise, ptly cldy conditions will continue to spread eastward
thru sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Turning out partly to mostly cloudy tonight but with dry
conditions. The upper-level low lifts NE along the spine of the
Appalachians tonight/Saturday morning before reorganizing over
the eastern Great Lakes late Saturday as additional energy
diving south from Canada further deepens it. The end result will
be the chance for additional instability showers on Saturday
and overall mostly cloudy/breezy conditions. Will carry 20-30%
pops across the N/NW in the morning, then 30-50% pops across
much of the area in the afternoon (highest NE). Lows tonight in
the 50s. Highs Saturday in the mid 60s to lwr 70s.

The upper-level low heads north into SE Canada Saturday
night/Sunday with additional spokes of energy rotating around
the base of the low. Timing/intensity of these features is tough
to judge but at this time cannot rule out at least lingering
low end pops (15-30%) during this time. Remaining partly to
mostly cloudy with below normal temps. Lows Saturday night from
the mid 40s to mid 50s. Highs Sunday in the mid 60s to around
70.

By Monday, sfc high pressure returns with dry NW flow
aloft behind the departing upper low over New England. Partly
sunny with highs in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Stacked low continues to spin over the NE CONUS with an
amplified ridge of high pressure over the cntrl U.S., and an
upper low sitting over the Intermountain West. Ridge over cntrl
U.S. is expected to break down (or deamplify) Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. As this occurs, the low over the
Intermountain West will begin to track ewd as the NE CONUS low
retrogrades and flattens out as upper level flow across the Mid
Atlantic becomes more WNW. This set-up will allow a potential
series of weather disturbances to pass across the area Wednesday
through the rest of the week (primarily the swrn half of the CWA
per 05/1200Z model runs). Conditions will remain unseasonably
cool throughout the long term periods. Lows generally in the
mid 40s to mid 50s Tue-Wed nights. Lows Thu night in the 50s.
Highs Wed-Fri in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain showers continue to affect portions of the CWA especially
east of I95 and on the Eastern Shore. MVFR/VFR ceilings
generally prevail over the region early this afternoon with some
IFR conditions where precip is occurring. A cold front will move
through central Virginia this afternoon and early evening and
push off the coast tonight. There will be a chance of rain ahead
of and with the front as it moves east. Winds will be from the
south ahead of the front 10-20 kt and mostly SW-W behind the
front with gusts to 25-30 kt possible.

OUTLOOK...Conditions improve tonight but scattered showers are
expected Saturday as an upper-level low affects the Mid Atlantic
states. There will be a chance for showers Saturday and
Saturday night but aviation conditions will be minimally
impacted. As high pressure builds in mainly dry and VFR
conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
No changes made to ongoing SCA flags or conditions expected
tonight into Saturday. Low pressure over the WV/MD panhandles
late this aftn will slowly track ENE into nrn NY state and then
more ewd along the St Lawrence River Valley on Saturday. Winds
are generally SE 15-20kt but will become more SSE 20-25kt as a
cold front crosses the waters. Behind the front, drier air
moving overhead will mix stronger winds over the waters and
SW 15-25kt should be anticipated this evening and Saturday. Seas
are currently 5-7ft and may briefly build to 8ft north of
Parramore Island with the drier air punching in. Waves 3-5ft in
the Bay. The wind will become WNW and average 10-15kt later
Saturday into Sunday. Low pressure lingers well NE of the area
into early next week as high pressure builds across the
Southeast States. High pressure over the cntrl U.S. begins to
break down Tuesday night into Wednesday, and the next weather
disturbance may cross the waters on Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tide levels at Cambridge peaked at 3.3ft this afternoon even
after roughly 2.00 inches of rain fell over Dorchester County
today. Although tidal anomalies will run about 1.3-1.4ft above
average, only nuisance flooding is anticipating with the high
tide cycle late tonight at Bishops Head and overnight at
Cambridge with tides peaking at 3.3ft for both locations during
high tide. Water levels remain elevated into Saturday with
Cambridge/Bishops Head potentially within 0.5 ft of minor flood
thresholds. The wind becomes westerly Saturday night into
Sunday, which will allow tidal anomalies to slowly diminish.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>638-
     650-652-654-656-658.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAS
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MAS/JEF
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BMD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
354 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

NCZ012>014-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096-
509>525-062000-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Fluvanna-
Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-
Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-
Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-
Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-
Southampton-Isle of Wight-Suffolk-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-
Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
354 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north
central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

A couple of strong thunderstorms may develop through sunset. These
thunderstorms will be capable of brief heavy rain, small hail and
gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021>025-NCZ015>017-102-VAZ095-097>100-062000-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Eastern Currituck-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Accomack-Northampton-
354 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
757 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     TORNADO          1 ESE VICKSVILLE        36.81N 77.01W
05/05/2017                   SOUTHAMPTON        VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND, TRACKING
            OVER UNITY ROAD.

&&

SAM

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