Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Wakefield, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
341 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves into the Mid Atlantic region tonight...then
stalls over Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina
through mid week. The boundary dissipates late in the week
allowing the Bermuda high to build back in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Severe tstm watch in effect until 00Z/20 for portions of
central/south central VA. Corridor of SHRAs/tstms continuing to
spread E from the VA highlands as cold front presse over the
mountains. Axis of SFC CAPE 2500-3500 J/KG over the FA as that
front approaches. So...plenty of available energy. However...a
few limiting factors...mid level lapse marginal at best...modest/deep
layered SW flow (200-230 kt) aiding downsloping/some drying (at
least aloft) and core of best UVM/forcing pushing by N of the
FA (from nrn VA/MD through ern PA-NY. Expecting an increase in
coverage of convection this evening. Initially...strong/severe
tstms possible...esp along-W of I 95 (will be monitoring the
stms and will extend watch E if necessary). After early this
evening...heavy rain potential (and possible localized flooding)
likely to increase (mainly along-E of I 95) w/ slowing cold
front entering the region and aided convergence aloft due to
trough aloft encounter resistance of the strong area of high
pres in wrn Atlantic. Otherwise...partly- mostly cloudy and
humid w/ lows around 70F NW to the m70s SE. Will continue w/
trend of lowering PoPs from NW-SE after midnight-by late
tonight.

Mention of possible severe stms and heavy rain continues in the
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak/residual frontal boundary lingers invof SE VA-NE NC Tue
into Wed as trough aloft is slow to track through New England
and strong high pres remains in the WSW Atlantic. By Wed night
into Thu...flow aloft become a bit more NW and gradually shifts
the moisture axis SE of the local area. Another surge of
moisture is possible by Thu afternoon as high pres off the SE
CONUS begins to reassert itself (into the mid Atlantic region).

The upcoming conditions for Tue-Wed invof SE VA-NE NC
potentially leads to extensive coverage of SHRAS/tstms and a
heightened heavy rain threat. QPF amounts expected to avg 1-2
inches with 3+ inches psbl in areas that do get training storms.
Low confidence in any 2nd-3rd period flood watch (at this time
of year esp)...but something to keep in mind going forward.
Elsewhere...VRB clouds-partly cloudy w/ decreasing PoPs SE- NW.
There will be a slight change in airmass over much of the area
into mid week (and some dropped in dewpoints/humidity). Highs
both days in the l-m80s...75-80F at the beaches. Lows Tue night
in the l-m60s NW to l70s SE.

Partly sunny-mostly cloudy Thu w/ a lo prob for SHRAs/tstms (by
afternoon)...esp SW portions of FA. Highs ranging through the
80s...75-80F along the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Anomalously moist air mass remains over the region through the
upcoming weekend as a series of weakening cold fronts approach
from the west. The fronts are expected to stall along the
western slopes of the mountains, but pressure falls on the lee
side of the Appalachians will induce lee/thermal troughing over
central Virginia. Several disturbances progged to track across
the region, resulting in scattered to numerous diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. Have retained
above-climo POPs. Near seasonable normal temperatures forecast
Friday through Sunday with highs generally in the upper 80's to
low 90's (cooler along the coast) and lows in the upper 60's to
low 70's.

Medium range guidance digs an upper level trough over the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley Sunday/Sunday night and into the eastern US
Monday/Monday night. While there are still spatial and timing
differences in the guidance, an associated (stronger) cold front
progged to impact the region Sunday night or Monday. Given the
strength of the upper trough, expect the front to clear the
local area Monday night as surface high pressure builds over the
Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold front making slow progress over the mountains this
afternoon...and will continue E into Tue...stalling invof SE
VA-NE NC. SHRAS/tstms will continue to develop this
afternoon...w/ highest coverage after 20-23Z/19. SHRAS/tstms
will result in periods of VRB CIGS/VSBYs...otherwise mainly high
end MVFR-VFR conditions. SHRAs/tstms shifts to ern/SE VA and NE
NC overnight. Additional SCT-likely SHRAS/tstms Tue and
Wed...highest prob invof ORF/ECG. Unsettled WX potentially
lingers THU-SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
No changes to the headlines this afternoon. A cold front
approaches the region from the NW this evening and pushes into the
area late tonight. S-SW winds 15-25 kt will continue into the
evening before gradually diminishing toward daybreak Tuesday.
The cold front is expected to move over the waters Tuesday morning
around daybreak then stall along the Carolina into Wednesday. SW
winds diminish below 15kt all waters around daybreak, however SCA
flags for coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light will continue
through the morning due to seas being slower to subside below 5ft.
For Tuesday afternoon through the rest of the week, sub-SCA SW winds
will prevail. Seas 2-4ft. Waves 1-2ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>634-638-
     656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...JDM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
254 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VAZ048-060>062-064-066>069-075>078-080-509>522-201900-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Lunenburg-
Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-
Lancaster-Dinwiddie-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
254 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 356 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia and
south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021-VAZ081>083-085-088>090-201900-
Dorchester-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Middlesex-Sussex-
Surry-James City-
254 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, east
central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening as a cold front sags south across the area.
The main threat will be damaging winds, but large hail will be
possible in the initial storms. Also, heavy rainfall is likely due
to slow moving thunderstorms. Localized flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ022>024-NCZ012>014-VAZ084-086-087-092-093-096-523>525-201900-
Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Northampton-Hertford-Gates-
Gloucester-Mathews-Greensville-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Suffolk-
York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
254 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this evening as a
cold front sags south into the area. The main threat will be
damaging winds, but large hail will be possible in the initial storms
this evening. Also, heavy rainfall is likely due to slow moving
thunderstorms. Localized flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-201900-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
254 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

In addition, there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this
evening as a cold front sags south across the area. The main threat
will be damaging winds, but large hail will be possible in the
initial storms this evening. Also, heavy rainfall is likely due to
slow moving thunderstorms. Localized flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ065-079-201900-
Mecklenburg-Brunswick-
254 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 356 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ015>017-030>032-VAZ095-097-201900-
Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Chesapeake-
254 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this evening as a
cold front sags south across the area. The main threat will be
damaging winds. Also, heavy rainfall is likely due to slow moving
thunderstorms. Localized flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible again Tuesday as additional
showers and thunderstorms develop along a stalled frontal boundary.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ102-VAZ098-201900-
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-
254 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this evening as a
cold front sags south across the area. The main threat will be
damaging winds. Also, heavy rainfall is likely due to slow moving
thunderstorms. Localized flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible again Tuesday as additional
showers and thunderstorms develop along a stalled frontal boundary.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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