Winter Storm Warning 18, NWS Juneau, AK

987 
WWAK47 PAJK 110040
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
340 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

AKZ018-111300-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0018.171211T0300Z-171211T2100Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
340 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 16 
  inches are expected. 

* WHERE...White Pass on Klondike Highway, mainly above 2500 feet.

* WHEN...Snowfall will begin Sunday evening with greatest 
  snowfall rates overnight through early Monday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are 
  expected. Travel will become difficult. Heavy wet snow will be 
  difficult to manage. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A warning means that a winter storm is already occurring or
imminent. This storm could pose a threat to life and property.

This statement will be updated by 4 AM Monday or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

$$

935 
WWAK47 PAJK 111257
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
357 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

AKZ018-112100-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.W.0018.000000T0000Z-171211T2100Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
357 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

* WHAT...An additional 3 to 5 inches of heavy, wet snow through
  noon. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 16 inches are expected.
 
* WHERE...White Pass on Klondike Highway, mainly above 2500 feet.

* WHEN...Heavy snow will continue through early Monday morning and
  then begin to taper off.
 
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant reductions in visibility are 
  expected. Travel will become difficult. Heavy wet snow will be 
  difficult to manage. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A warning means that a winter storm is already occurring or
imminent. This storm could pose a threat to life and property.

This statement will be updated by noon Monday Alaska standard time or
sooner if conditions warrant.

&&

$$

406 
WWAK47 PAJK 111820
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
920 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

AKZ018-111930-
/O.CAN.PAJK.WS.W.0018.000000T0000Z-171211T2100Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
920 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

WHAT...8 inches of wet snow had fallen as of 6 AM. Rates of snow
have diminished this morning. 

WHERE...Klondike Highway Near White Pass. 

Wet snow will taper off through midday. Travel may remain 
hazardous due to the wet snow. 

This will be the final statement on this event.  

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Juneau AK
345 PM AKST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SHORT TERM.../ Saturday night to Monday night / Weather front
from a low southeast of Kodiak Island arcs past the northeast
gulf coast and then south through the panhandle. About 1.5 inches
of rain has fallen in the last 6 hours as the front was moving
through the Ketchikan area. Locally gusty winds near the front of 40
mph have occurred over the southern panhandle, as well. When the
front moves through the northern panhandle Saturday evening look for
the south winds to increase and the temperatures to rise back to the
lower 40s. The remains of the frontal precipitation will linger
along the coast mountains into Sunday. A secondary trough will
develop and move north over the gulf and panhandle for Sunday night
and Monday. We will expect more gusty winds and periods of heavier
rains near this front. Best QPF accumulations look to be over the
northern panhandle and a lesser amounts in the north gulf coast,
though this can shift as the track of the wave shifts.

Temperatures near White Pass look like they may be just cold enough
to support snow. The potential of just over a foot of snow is there,
so have issued a Winter Storm Watch for the pass area of the
Klondike Highway. The best time for snow at this time will be early
Monday Morning to Monday afternoon.

Expect the precipitation to taper off along the stalled weather
front across the northern panhandle through Monday afternoon.
Forecast confidence is above average to average into Monday.

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...As of 1030pm Friday...The
extended forecast will finally see a breakdown in the high
amplitude ridge and the jet stream pointed at the region from the
tropics shifting back to the south...although it looks like that
might take until the second half of next week.

Until that time, the pattern remains active with multiple systems
moving south to north across the gulf. This will keep things warm
with mainly rain in the forecast, with exception of the far
northern borders that could see accumulating snow. Monday morning
a gale force front will be moving inland. A wave along the front
will likely keep precip going for most of the day, and thus not
much of a break between systems. The next low pressure system
follows in a similar path Tuesday night with another round of gale
force winds and heavy rain for the northern gulf coast.

Things start to cool towards the end of the week as systems start
crossing the gulf from the west instead of the south. Have cooled
temperatures slightly to reflect this and have some snow mixed in
Friday/Saturday across the north.

Used a blend of the GFS and ECMWF for most changes to the extended
forecast. NBM was used for wind directions inside along with a
nudge to WPC for speeds. Forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR conditions for visibility and cloud heights this
evening. Also periods of turbulence and wind shear from lower
level wind bands with first frontal band. Will see lower
conditions (visibility and ceilings) and wind shear returning to
the forecast Sunday afternoon and evening as the next frontal
band start to spread inland of the panhandle and northeast gulf
coast.

&&

.MARINE...Gale force front moving through the northern waters and
panhandle tonight. A second impulse will move northward and
through the panhandle region Sunday night and Monday. This second
impulse looks like there is a band of 50 kt on the north side of
the front so most of the outer waters should see a period of storm
force Sunday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Warm wet southerly flow pattern continues with 1.5
to 3 inches from Yakutat to the Lynn Canal. Have been in
communication with RFC watching the water level on the Situk River.
Presently water levels below action stage but a quick accumulation
of rain could see a rise. Remainder or streams are not threatening
flooding at this time.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind Sunday afternoon for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Sunday morning
     for AKZ018.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-053.

&&

Bezenek/Ferrin

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