Storm Warning 41, NWS Juneau, AK

649 
FZAK52 PAJK 110032
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
332 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-111845-
332 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A 960 MB storm center near the S end of Kodiak Island will 
rapidly weaken over the Alaska Peninsula Sun Night. The 
associated storm force front will dissipate along the N Gulf 
coast Sun night. Another strong front will move into the offshore
waters late on Mon night. 

$$

PKZ041-111845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
332 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 35 kt late. Seas building
to 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. Rain in the morning.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas
14 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-111845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
332 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt in the evening becoming S 30 kt. Seas 20
ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. SW swell. Rain in the morning.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.WED...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-111845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
332 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt in the evening becoming S 35 kt. Seas
building to 22 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 19 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Rain late.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.WED...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-111845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
332 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt in the evening, decreasing to 30 kt. 
Seas 12 ft building to 25 ft late. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 21 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Rain late.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-111845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
332 PM AKST Sun Dec 10 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt decreasing to 35 kt late. Seas 15 ft
building to 26 ft late. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 22 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

608 
FZAK52 PAJK 111325
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
National Weather Service Juneau AK
425 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-120730-
425 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Winds associated with a diminishing storm force low in the Gulf
will decrease throughout the day Monday, but will  increase
later tonight as another front moves north over the eastern
gulf. An extension of this low will break off and  traverse
through the outer waters early Tuesday. Finally, a third  low
will push north over the gulf late Tuesday.  

$$

PKZ041-120730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
425 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding
to 12 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-120730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
425 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 18 ft. SW swell. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 14 ft.
SW swell in the evening.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-120730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
425 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
18 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt late. Seas 15 ft. SW
swell in the evening. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...S gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-120730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
425 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 21
ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 15 ft. SW
swell in the evening. Rain late. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Out of interior bays and passes, gusts
to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-120730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
425 AM AKST Mon Dec 11 2017

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23
ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt late. Seas 16 ft. SW
swell in the evening. Rain late. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.WED...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Juneau AK
345 PM AKST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SHORT TERM.../ Saturday night to Monday night / Weather front
from a low southeast of Kodiak Island arcs past the northeast
gulf coast and then south through the panhandle. About 1.5 inches
of rain has fallen in the last 6 hours as the front was moving
through the Ketchikan area. Locally gusty winds near the front of 40
mph have occurred over the southern panhandle, as well. When the
front moves through the northern panhandle Saturday evening look for
the south winds to increase and the temperatures to rise back to the
lower 40s. The remains of the frontal precipitation will linger
along the coast mountains into Sunday. A secondary trough will
develop and move north over the gulf and panhandle for Sunday night
and Monday. We will expect more gusty winds and periods of heavier
rains near this front. Best QPF accumulations look to be over the
northern panhandle and a lesser amounts in the north gulf coast,
though this can shift as the track of the wave shifts.

Temperatures near White Pass look like they may be just cold enough
to support snow. The potential of just over a foot of snow is there,
so have issued a Winter Storm Watch for the pass area of the
Klondike Highway. The best time for snow at this time will be early
Monday Morning to Monday afternoon.

Expect the precipitation to taper off along the stalled weather
front across the northern panhandle through Monday afternoon.
Forecast confidence is above average to average into Monday.

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...As of 1030pm Friday...The
extended forecast will finally see a breakdown in the high
amplitude ridge and the jet stream pointed at the region from the
tropics shifting back to the south...although it looks like that
might take until the second half of next week.

Until that time, the pattern remains active with multiple systems
moving south to north across the gulf. This will keep things warm
with mainly rain in the forecast, with exception of the far
northern borders that could see accumulating snow. Monday morning
a gale force front will be moving inland. A wave along the front
will likely keep precip going for most of the day, and thus not
much of a break between systems. The next low pressure system
follows in a similar path Tuesday night with another round of gale
force winds and heavy rain for the northern gulf coast.

Things start to cool towards the end of the week as systems start
crossing the gulf from the west instead of the south. Have cooled
temperatures slightly to reflect this and have some snow mixed in
Friday/Saturday across the north.

Used a blend of the GFS and ECMWF for most changes to the extended
forecast. NBM was used for wind directions inside along with a
nudge to WPC for speeds. Forecast confidence is average.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR conditions for visibility and cloud heights this
evening. Also periods of turbulence and wind shear from lower
level wind bands with first frontal band. Will see lower
conditions (visibility and ceilings) and wind shear returning to
the forecast Sunday afternoon and evening as the next frontal
band start to spread inland of the panhandle and northeast gulf
coast.

&&

.MARINE...Gale force front moving through the northern waters and
panhandle tonight. A second impulse will move northward and
through the panhandle region Sunday night and Monday. This second
impulse looks like there is a band of 50 kt on the north side of
the front so most of the outer waters should see a period of storm
force Sunday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Warm wet southerly flow pattern continues with 1.5
to 3 inches from Yakutat to the Lynn Canal. Have been in
communication with RFC watching the water level on the Situk River.
Presently water levels below action stage but a quick accumulation
of rain could see a rise. Remainder or streams are not threatening
flooding at this time.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind Sunday afternoon for AKZ027.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Sunday morning
     for AKZ018.
     Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-053.

&&

Bezenek/Ferrin

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