Storm Warning 7, NWS Juneau, AK

469 
FZAK52 PAJK 160015
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
315 PM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-161815-
315 PM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT. A
GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND PANHANDLE ON
MONDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-161815-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
315 PM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
25 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE LATE. SEAS 19 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-161815-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
315 PM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
25 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N LATE. SEAS 20 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-161815-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
315 PM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO
23 FT LATE. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-161815-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
315 PM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING...
THEN DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING 20 FT. RAIN.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21
FT. RAIN. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. S SWELL. SNOW LATE. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING
TO 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-161815-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
315 PM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING...
THEN DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE
MORNING...THEN RAIN WITH SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 19 FT. S SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO
13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

583 
FZAK52 PAJK 161252
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
352 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-170100-
352 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND PANHANDLE ON
MONDAY AND ALLOW COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE WEST.   

$$

PKZ041-170100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
352 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 25 FT. RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT. SW
SWELL.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-170100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
352 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW AND DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E AND DIMINISHING TO 10 KT
LATE. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-170100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
352 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW AND DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT. SW
SWELL.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-170100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
352 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT SHIFTING TO THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS 20 FT. S
SWELL.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-170100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
352 AM AKST MON JAN 16 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL IN THE MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
438 PM AKST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tail end of the front and weather system exits
through southeast Alaska this afternoon. Very strong south winds
from Skagway through White Pass today so extended the Winter
Storm to the afternoon, and then needed to go with High wind for
the Skagway area after it started to gust to 60 to 65 mph in the
morning. The other action packed spot was Misty Fjords where a
foot of snow fell since Friday morning. The snow will likely
continue overnight before mixing with rain by morning.

For Southeast Alaska late Saturday night and early Sunday is the
chance to prepare for the next incoming weather system. Conditions
will worsen quickly in the afternoon hours, while the frontal band
approaches the southeast panhandle. The parent low deepening to
the mid 960s by Sunday afternoon will be moving northward to be
about 200 nm east of Kodiak Island Sunday afternoon. Strong gales
to storm force winds along the front will move into the eastern
half of the gulf in the afternoon. Across the inner channels winds
increasing to small craft to gales.. while the western capes and
cities will start to see increasing gusty winds.

Model agreement was fairly good through Sunday on low track and
increase of rains back across the area.

.LONG TERM...Southeast Alaska will see yet more wind and rain and
of course...snow and wind at higher elevations with more blizzard
conditions ahead. The initial warm front moves north across the
Panhandle Sunday evening. Another short-wave will lift northward
behind the system, effectively training moisture across the
Panhandle into Monday. Thus rain will be heavy at times all across
Southeast starting Sunday night before rates diminish Monday
night. As the current system dropped widespread 24 hour rainfall
totals of 1.5 to 3 inches, the new system may be under-forecast
with 1 to 2 inches now expected Sunday night into Monday. Of
greater impact is the heavy snow for White Pass. Snow will
intensify Sunday evening. By Monday afternoon confidence is high
that over a foot of snow will fall. This leads us to a high
potential blizzard for Monday afternoon/Monday night.

While strong gusty winds of 40 to 55 mph will blow across much of
the Panhandle with Yakutat even shifting directions to a westerly
by Monday afternoon, we are most concerned with Skagway and the
Klondike Highway as the low jumps inland Monday. Winds will
accelerate as this happens much like they did today. Thus we think
high winds to around 60 mph are likely enough to issue a watch. As
Summit Creek observation site in Canada showed us today, and
given periodic AKDOT on the ground reports of conditions at White
Pass, we also feel confident that blizzard conditions will develop
Monday into Monday night. To cover the collection of elements
forecast for Sunday night through Monday night, we have issued a
Winter Storm Warning for White Pass for the entire time period
from Sunday night into Monday night. Even as snow rates diminish
Monday night, blizzard conditions will persist into Monday night.
For Skagway, we have issued a High Wind Watch for Monday into
Monday evening for gusts around 60 mph possible.

In other amendments we greatly raised temperatures in such a
southerly wind regime for the Haines Highway to eliminate
significant snow accumulations. In fact, we do not think a
snowless couple of days is completely out of the question. Still
we do occasionally have some snow mixing in.

A cold front will briskly move west across the northern gulf
Monday and will affect Yakutat with a stark westerly wind shift
with gusty winds from the gulf. While confidence was not high
enough to put out a high wind watch, there is the potential
Monday for wind gusts to reach 60 mph given strong cold air
advection. We raised Yakutat Bay to 40 kt gales during this time.

Long range forecast was left static, but Tuesday, GFS wants to
push a significant low up our coast. Ensembles identify this
period as one of lesser confidence with most members offering a
solution that places said storm well to the south of Dixon
Entrance. Thus, we must state that our wind, our temperatures,
and rain/snow line forecasts look fragile during this time. We
continue to await a clearer signal before we have the confidence
to change things, if needed at all. Winds could be stronger across
the southern and central Panhandle, and rain/snow line could be
pushed northward.

A cooling and drying trend continues to look good for late next
week. EC/GFS was used for Sunday night/Monday night edits.
Confidence falls after this.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Sunday afternoon for AKZ022-023-025>028.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ029.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM AKST Tuesday for
     AKZ018.
     Strong Wind from 3 AM AKST Sunday through Sunday morning for
     AKZ018.
     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-021-022-031-033-035-036-041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-032-034-053.
&&

Bezenek/JWA

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