Gale Warning 26, NWS Juneau, AK

020 
FZAK52 PAJK 151236
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
336 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-160100-
336 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY
EVENING CROSSING OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-160100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
336 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 65 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING. GUSTS TO 65
KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW GALE TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 24 FT. SW SWELL IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-160100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
336 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 65 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING. GUSTS TO 65
KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW GALE TO 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 24 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO
13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-160100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
336 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. GUSTS TO 65
KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO
13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-160100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
336 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO
65 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W GALE TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 21 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ052-160100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
336 AM AKST SUN JAN 15 2017

...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. GUSTS TO
65 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO
13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
457 AM AKST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery this morning showing a closed low
moving from the northeastern gulf into the Yukon with a trough
extending down the central gulf and ridging over the panhandle.
The associated weather front crossing over the panhandle early
Saturday. The front produced temperatures across most of the
panhandle to rise into the upper 30s to low 40s. The exception being
Hyder, which still had some northeasterly flow, and at higher
elevations. Rain across the panhandle was heavy at times and will
continue through the day. Unstable airmass behind the front with rain
changing to showers tonight. As the trough over the gulf moves
east crossing into British Columbia showers will begin to taper
off late tonight. Kept the Winter Storm warning for White Pass
until 9 am and extended the Hyder Winter Weather Advisory until
noon since the position of the ridge axis will keep colder air in
place and add a few more inches of snow before transitioning to
rain.

Winds over the gulf drop from gales to small craft through the
day and continue to subside tonight. Inner channel winds follow a
similar trend but the ridge over the gulf will keep higher winds
over the far northern inner channels. Strong winds occurred over
most of the panhandle overnight will last through the morning then
drop off. Skagway winds expected to remain higher due to presence
of pressure gradient between the panhandle ridge and Yukon low.

Used Hi Res NAM to refresh grids, but overall changes were mostly
with timing of temperatures and a slight increase to panhandle
winds. Forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM...Cyclonic jet core aimed at Ketchikan on Sunday
afternoon will help to bring the main event. A negatively tilted
upper trof will support a 961 MB low in the central Gulf on Sunday
evening with a very strong front. This system is strong enough to
drive storm force winds in our outer waters and certainly strong
winds for the land areas with gusts to 55 MPH. Couldn't quite bite
and widespread sustained 60 MPH due to the strong warm advection
with this system. Those of us who are fans of winter weather will
have to look to the northern Lynn Canal area to find significant
snowfall combined with wind. We have to keep a look out if the
system develops deep enough to require warnings for the wind or
wind/snow combo for the roads into BC Sunday night. Look for a
lee side development in the southern Yukon on Monday to keep a lot
of strong wind going and snow north. Seas outside will be
monstrous and look for storm force or whole gales inside.

The next interesting event will be on Thursday as a very cold
upper low sets up over the Seward Peninsula. This will drive a
cold short wave across the Gulf into the Panhandle. This one is
looking more like a widespread snow event but confidence is not
that high on this feature that far out. It will be fun to see if
this one comes true. If so, -40C aloft at 500 HPa will do the
trick. Guidance for this package was mainly staying with the
previous forecasts that agreed with a model blend and yesterday's
WPC guidance. Confidence high on significant wind, moderate on the
northern snow.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ022-023-027.
     Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ029.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031>036-041>043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-051>053.
&&

PRB/JC

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
134 PM AKST SAT JAN 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST SKAGWAY                 59.48N 135.33W
01/14/2017  M62 MPH                             AK   ASOS

            SKAGWAY ASOS MEASURED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 62 MPH AT 1014
            AM

&&

DEL