Storm Warning 36, NWS Juneau, AK

122 
FZAK51 PAJK 071322
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
422 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-080330-
422 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
The front over the southeastern gulf continues to weaken and
shift to the south through Tuesday. Strong high pressure remains
across northwest Canada.  

$$

PKZ011-080330-
Glacier Bay-
422 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing in the morning. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-080330-
Northern Lynn Canal-
422 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...N wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing in the evening. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...N gale to 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-080330-
Southern Lynn Canal-
422 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft late. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-080330-
Icy Strait-
422 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Strongest winds west of Point Adolphus.  
Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-080330-
Cross Sound-
422 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...STORM WARNING EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 50 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-080330-
Stephens Passage-
422 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Gusts to 60 
kt out of interior passes. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-080330-
Northern Chatham Strait-
422 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
5 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming N 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-080330-
Southern Chatham Strait-
422 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt diminishing in the morning. Seas 7 ft, 
except 12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.THU...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-080330-
Frederick Sound-
422 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 60 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 5 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of interior passes. 
Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-080330-
Sumner Strait-
422 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of interior passes. 
Seas 6 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. Rain early in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior passes. 
Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to
35 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-080330-
Clarence Strait-
422 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of interior passes. 
Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain early in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

209 
FZAK51 PAJK 080022
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast FOR Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 nm

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-081745-
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
Strong high pressure across northwest Canada is pushing the
weather front further to the south this evening and out of the
area. Trough of low pressure will deepen along the outer coastal
area tonight through Wednesday.  

$$

PKZ011-081745-
Glacier Bay-
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft
subsiding.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Northern areas, freezing 
spray late.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Northern areas, freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Northern areas, freezing 
spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 15 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to
3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-081745-
Northern Lynn Canal-
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.THU...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-081745-
Southern Lynn Canal-
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt
in the evening. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft late. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-081745-
Icy Strait-
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft
subsiding.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-081745-
Cross Sound-
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Gusts to 50 kt. 
Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SE swell in the morning. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NW late. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-081745-
Stephens Passage-
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 7 ft
subsiding.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-081745-
Northern Chatham Strait-
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
5 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming N 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-081745-
Southern Chatham Strait-
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing in the evening. Seas 6 ft, 
except 9 ft near ocean entrances. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less, except 4 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-081745-
Frederick Sound-
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior passes. Seas
4 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-081745-
Sumner Strait-
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior passes. 
Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to
35 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-081745-
Clarence Strait-
322 PM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of 
interior passes. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to
35 kt in the evening. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
349 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...The strongest storm of the Fall season thus far is
moving into the SEAK this afternoon. Strong winds for much of the
Panhandle with Gale force winds on the inside waters and Storm
Force winds on the outside waters are or will occur in association
with this storm. Winds and seas continue to increase tonight and
then diminish through Tuesday afternoon.

Strong north and easterly winds with gusts of 30 to 50 mph over
much of the area will be present with stronger gusts out of
interior passes as well. The outer coastal areas will be the
strongest, with the highest gusts out of interior passes along the
Coast Mountains.

Seas over the gulf have built to around 22 feet in the central and
southeastern gulf with seas to 10 feet in the north. Seas will
continue to build out in the central gulf to 26 feet overnight and
diminish through Tuesday. Seas on the inside waters will increase
through the night with seas building to 12 ft in Lynn Canal.

Temperatures have increased for the southern area with rain
starting to fall late this afternoon. There could be a mix of snow
with heavier rain but no accumulation is expected for the Prince
of Wales and Ketchikan areas. A bit farther north in the central
Panhandle snow will be the predominate form of precipitation with
local accumulations up to 1 inch. Moving even further north mixes
of rain and snow with accumulation of up to 1 inch through the
Elfin Cove-Hoonah-Juneau corridor. Far north areas of Skagway-
Haines and Yakutat will be mainly dry with decreasing clouds
tomorrow.

Models are in good model agreement, the AKHIRESWarw was a good fit
for winds and NAM for POP. No big changes to the current forecast,
changes were limited to local areas. One area with the most
changes was to the winds in Juneau area with bringing in the
strong winds a few hours earlier.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday to Monday / Multi-centered surface low
continued to spin and drift south slowly south of the southern
Gulf of Alaska, while a narrow ridge axis extends from a high
south of the central Aleutians along the Alaska Peninsula-Central
gulf coast and to a high center southern Yukon Territory and
western Northwest Territories. The Canadian high will shift SE to
the western Canadian Plains, and weaken the northern pressure
gradient. A large low centered over the Russian Arctic will have
a weather front arcing through the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait
and back towards the Kamchatka Peninsula. The upper level trough
associated with the southern part of this front will move over the
Bering Sea and southwest Alaska before digging southeast into the
Western Gulf late Thursday. The digging trough will develop a
surface low in the northern gulf for Friday that will track
southeast to southwest of Haida Gwaii by Saturday morning. While
the low is moving southeast high pressure is building through the
Alaska Interior to the Canadian Northwest, allowing cooler air to
spread in from the west out of Russia. The temperature for the
Friday - Saturday time frame will similar to the cold pool on
Monday and Tuesday. The colder air will then slowly build a larger
cooler dome of air headed into the middle of the following week.

Winds on Wednesday over the northern panhandle will lighten,
although do expect them to strengthen again Friday - Saturday
with another push of cold air into the northern panhandle and
increasing pressure gradients. Depending on location and track of
the low Friday to Saturday portions of the panhandle to pick up
some light precipitation it looks like, from snow in the north to
rain over the southern parts.

Needed only minor changes the extended to track the low out of
the southern gulf and position the one on Friday Saturday. Started
with a GFS/ECMWF blend, and transitioned to WPC. Overall trend
for SEAK looks be slightly cooler and generally dry.

&&

.AVIATION...LLWS and turbulence from below ridge tops up into the
flight levels will continue to impact aviation operations for the
next 24 hours. Conditions improving from north to south towards
the end of the period as the storm force low in the gulf
continues to track off to the SSE.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Tuesday afternoon
     for AKZ026.
     Strong Wind through Tuesday afternoon for AKZ023-027-028.
     Strong Wind through Tuesday afternoon for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022.
     Strong Wind from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ012-041>043.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011-013-021-022-031-033>036-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ032-052-053.

&&

KV/Bezenek

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1040 PM AKST MON NOV 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/06/2017  M41.00 MPH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            WIND GUSTS TO 76 KT REPORTED AT SOUTH DOUGLAS WIND
            PROFILER.

&&

BMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1045 PM AKST MON NOV 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
11/06/2017  M41.00 MPH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            WIND GUSTS TO 76 MPH REPORTED AT SOUTH DOUGLAS WIND
            PROFILER.

&&

BMB