High Wind Warning 16, NWS Juneau, AK

284 
WWAK77 PAJK 071742
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
842 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

AKZ025-071845-
/O.EXP.PAJK.HW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-171107T1800Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
842 AM AKST Tue Nov 7 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING...

Wind speeds in the downtown Juneau and Douglas area have 
diminished below high wind criteria of 60 mph. Strong winds with 
occasional gusts to 50 mph will continue through the remainder of 
today and into this evening. Winds will diminish further overnight
tonight. 

This will be the final statement on this event.


$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
349 PM AKST Mon Nov 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...The strongest storm of the Fall season thus far is
moving into the SEAK this afternoon. Strong winds for much of the
Panhandle with Gale force winds on the inside waters and Storm
Force winds on the outside waters are or will occur in association
with this storm. Winds and seas continue to increase tonight and
then diminish through Tuesday afternoon.

Strong north and easterly winds with gusts of 30 to 50 mph over
much of the area will be present with stronger gusts out of
interior passes as well. The outer coastal areas will be the
strongest, with the highest gusts out of interior passes along the
Coast Mountains.

Seas over the gulf have built to around 22 feet in the central and
southeastern gulf with seas to 10 feet in the north. Seas will
continue to build out in the central gulf to 26 feet overnight and
diminish through Tuesday. Seas on the inside waters will increase
through the night with seas building to 12 ft in Lynn Canal.

Temperatures have increased for the southern area with rain
starting to fall late this afternoon. There could be a mix of snow
with heavier rain but no accumulation is expected for the Prince
of Wales and Ketchikan areas. A bit farther north in the central
Panhandle snow will be the predominate form of precipitation with
local accumulations up to 1 inch. Moving even further north mixes
of rain and snow with accumulation of up to 1 inch through the
Elfin Cove-Hoonah-Juneau corridor. Far north areas of Skagway-
Haines and Yakutat will be mainly dry with decreasing clouds
tomorrow.

Models are in good model agreement, the AKHIRESWarw was a good fit
for winds and NAM for POP. No big changes to the current forecast,
changes were limited to local areas. One area with the most
changes was to the winds in Juneau area with bringing in the
strong winds a few hours earlier.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday to Monday / Multi-centered surface low
continued to spin and drift south slowly south of the southern
Gulf of Alaska, while a narrow ridge axis extends from a high
south of the central Aleutians along the Alaska Peninsula-Central
gulf coast and to a high center southern Yukon Territory and
western Northwest Territories. The Canadian high will shift SE to
the western Canadian Plains, and weaken the northern pressure
gradient. A large low centered over the Russian Arctic will have
a weather front arcing through the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait
and back towards the Kamchatka Peninsula. The upper level trough
associated with the southern part of this front will move over the
Bering Sea and southwest Alaska before digging southeast into the
Western Gulf late Thursday. The digging trough will develop a
surface low in the northern gulf for Friday that will track
southeast to southwest of Haida Gwaii by Saturday morning. While
the low is moving southeast high pressure is building through the
Alaska Interior to the Canadian Northwest, allowing cooler air to
spread in from the west out of Russia. The temperature for the
Friday - Saturday time frame will similar to the cold pool on
Monday and Tuesday. The colder air will then slowly build a larger
cooler dome of air headed into the middle of the following week.

Winds on Wednesday over the northern panhandle will lighten,
although do expect them to strengthen again Friday - Saturday
with another push of cold air into the northern panhandle and
increasing pressure gradients. Depending on location and track of
the low Friday to Saturday portions of the panhandle to pick up
some light precipitation it looks like, from snow in the north to
rain over the southern parts.

Needed only minor changes the extended to track the low out of
the southern gulf and position the one on Friday Saturday. Started
with a GFS/ECMWF blend, and transitioned to WPC. Overall trend
for SEAK looks be slightly cooler and generally dry.

&&

.AVIATION...LLWS and turbulence from below ridge tops up into the
flight levels will continue to impact aviation operations for the
next 24 hours. Conditions improving from north to south towards
the end of the period as the storm force low in the gulf
continues to track off to the SSE.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Tuesday afternoon
     for AKZ026.
     Strong Wind through Tuesday afternoon for AKZ023-027-028.
     Strong Wind through Tuesday afternoon for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ022.
     Strong Wind from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ012-041>043.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011-013-021-022-031-033>036-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ032-052-053.

&&

KV/Bezenek

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