Storm Warning 27, NWS Juneau, AK

660 
FZAK52 PAJK 032320
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
320 PM AKDT MON APR 3 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-041730-
320 PM AKDT MON APR 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL STALL THERE MON
NIGHT. ANOTHER STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE N INTO THE SE GULF
TUE AFTERNOON, THEN REACH THE FAR N GULF BY WED MORNING. 

$$

PKZ041-041730-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
320 PM AKDT MON APR 3 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-041730-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
320 PM AKDT MON APR 3 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT.
SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-041730-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
320 PM AKDT MON APR 3 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-041730-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
320 PM AKDT MON APR 3 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN IN THE
MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN LATE. 
.WED...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-041730-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
320 PM AKDT MON APR 3 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN IN THE
MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN LATE. 
.WED...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

488 
FZAK52 PAJK 040341 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
741 PM AKDT MON APR 3 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-042145-
741 PM AKDT MON APR 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL STALL THERE MON
NIGHT. ANOTHER STORM FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE N INTO THE SE GULF
TUE AFTERNOON, THEN REACH THE FAR N GULF BY WED MORNING. 

$$

PKZ041-042145-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
741 PM AKDT MON APR 3 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-042145-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
741 PM AKDT MON APR 3 2017

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT.
SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-042145-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
741 PM AKDT MON APR 3 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-042145-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
741 PM AKDT MON APR 3 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN IN THE
MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN LATE. 
.WED...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S
SWELL. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-042145-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
741 PM AKDT MON APR 3 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN IN THE
MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...E GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
RAIN LATE. 
.WED...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS
24 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

140 
FZAK52 PAJK 041148
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
348 AM AKDT TUE APR 4 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-050600-
348 AM AKDT TUE APR 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
AS A GALE FORCE FRONT LIES STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF, A
STORM FORCE FRONT WILL ADVANCE N INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF THIS 
AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER STORM FORCE FRONT LIFTS N INTO THE EASTERN 
GULF EARLY WEDNESDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-050600-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
348 AM AKDT TUE APR 4 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S GALE TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-050600-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
348 AM AKDT TUE APR 4 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO
18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-050600-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
348 AM AKDT TUE APR 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT BECOMING SE GALE TO
40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-050600-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
348 AM AKDT TUE APR 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN EARLY IN 
THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.WED...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-050600-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
348 AM AKDT TUE APR 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN EARLY IN
THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN LATE. 
.WED...E GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
948 PM AKDT Sun Apr 2 2017

.UPDATE...Extended forecast periods and Discussion updated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...issued at 423 pm Sunday. Tonight thought Monday.
Satellite imagery Sun afternoon shows a weak weather system
spreading over much of the panhandle. Mostly light rain showers
have been reported off at many locations. Some showers contained
ice pellets or small hail. Radar images show precipitation extends
a ways offshore so a mix of rain and snow will be the weather
over much of the panhandle through tonight.

Models showed a more definitive break early Mon between the
weather system tonight and a much stronger weather front
approaching later Mon. Scaled back of the chance of rain/snow Mon
and delayed the onset of weather Mon night but only slightly. A
long band of gales will accompany the front as it approaches Mon
night. Pressure gradients over the inner channels ahead of the
front will increase Mon and small craft advisory winds will spread
over the inner channels by Mon evening.

Tuesday through Tuesday night. The associated surface low center
curves N-NW along the coast by Tue morning and will be followed by
another similarly strong low center center. This second system
will keep winds rather strong Tue night into Wed. Precipitation
with the second system looks like it will be more abundant.
Ensemble model solutions predict much higher than usual moisture
values. Combined with seasonally mild air temps and rainfall
amounts between one and two inches possible by Wed expect more low
level snow melt and avalanche cycle.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday into Monday / Pronounced drying trend in
the works for the extended period as the strong upper level low
that was anchored over the western gulf for the first half of the
week weakens through the second half. Better model agreement on
the remaining trough sticking around into Fri night with the
Pacific storm track forced well south, but model consistency
compared to yesterday for the weekend is rather lacking. GFS,
Canadian, and even the GFS ensemble mean are now introducing some
strong upstream ridging over the western gulf Sat into Sun with
some of it propagating into the panhandle by early next week
preventing any weak short wave energy from bringing rain to the
southern panhandle late weekend. Meanwhile the ECMWF is hanging
on to yesterday's idea of a weaker upper trough lingering through
the same time period with some short wave energy bringing at least
a chance of precip for the south.

At lower levels, Wed continues to look windy and wet as Tue
night's front pulls through the area and precip switches to
frequent post frontal showers. At least one strong post frontal
wave will enhance the showers and allow them to persist into Thu.
That same wave will also keep winds somewhat high through Wed
evening (widespread gales for marine areas and strong wind gusts
for the southern panhandle and outer coast).

The development of an inverted trough over the panhandle Fri will
signal the end of most of the precipitation for the area as
offshore flow takes over. Significant breaks in the cloud cover
should also develop allowing daytime highs to warm up during that
time. Still can not completely rule out some precip for late
weekend for the southern half of the panhandle due to the abrupt
change in pattern displayed by the GFS and Canadian today while
the ECMWF remained consistent with yesterday. Thus left a chance
of precip for the late weekend period until extended models have a
better grip on what will happen.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-036.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.
&&

ABJ/TA/EAL

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