High Wind Watch 9, NWS Juneau, AK

017 
WWAK77 PAJK 032332
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
332 PM AKDT Mon Apr 3 2017

AKZ027-041300-
/O.EXT.PAJK.HW.A.0009.170404T2100Z-170405T1200Z/
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Craig and Klawock
332 PM AKDT Mon Apr 3 2017

...HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATION...Southeast Gulf Coast

* WINDS...Gusts around 60 mph are possible.

* TIMING...Winds will increase Tuesday afternoon and persist into
  Tuesday night.

* IMPACTS...Loose objects may be blown around. Improperly moored 
  boats may break free. Hazardous sea travel. Downed trees may 
  cause power outages. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind watch means there is the potential for a hazardous
high wind event. Sustained winds of at least 40 mph, or gusts of
58 mph or stronger may occur. Continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.

This statement will be updated by 5 AM AKDT Tuesday or sooner 
should conditions warrant.

&&

$$

854 
WWAK77 PAJK 041249
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
449 AM AKDT Tue Apr 4 2017

AKZ027-050100-
/O.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0009.170404T2100Z-170405T1200Z/
/O.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0015.170404T2100Z-170405T1200Z/
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Craig and Klawock
449 AM AKDT Tue Apr 4 2017

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM
AKDT WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Juneau has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM AKDT
Wednesday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect. 

* LOCATION...Southeast Gulf Coast including Hydaburg and Craig

* WINDS...Gusts around 60 mph.

* TIMING...Winds will increase Tuesday afternoon and persist
  through Tuesday night. 

* IMPACTS...Loose objects may be blown around. Improperly moored
  boats may break free. Downed trees may cause power outages.
  Marine and aviation operations will be impacted. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 MPH or gusts
of 58 MPH or more can lead to property damage

This statement will be updated by 1 PM AKDT this afternoon or 
sooner should conditions warrant.

&&

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
948 PM AKDT Sun Apr 2 2017

.UPDATE...Extended forecast periods and Discussion updated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...issued at 423 pm Sunday. Tonight thought Monday.
Satellite imagery Sun afternoon shows a weak weather system
spreading over much of the panhandle. Mostly light rain showers
have been reported off at many locations. Some showers contained
ice pellets or small hail. Radar images show precipitation extends
a ways offshore so a mix of rain and snow will be the weather
over much of the panhandle through tonight.

Models showed a more definitive break early Mon between the
weather system tonight and a much stronger weather front
approaching later Mon. Scaled back of the chance of rain/snow Mon
and delayed the onset of weather Mon night but only slightly. A
long band of gales will accompany the front as it approaches Mon
night. Pressure gradients over the inner channels ahead of the
front will increase Mon and small craft advisory winds will spread
over the inner channels by Mon evening.

Tuesday through Tuesday night. The associated surface low center
curves N-NW along the coast by Tue morning and will be followed by
another similarly strong low center center. This second system
will keep winds rather strong Tue night into Wed. Precipitation
with the second system looks like it will be more abundant.
Ensemble model solutions predict much higher than usual moisture
values. Combined with seasonally mild air temps and rainfall
amounts between one and two inches possible by Wed expect more low
level snow melt and avalanche cycle.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday into Monday / Pronounced drying trend in
the works for the extended period as the strong upper level low
that was anchored over the western gulf for the first half of the
week weakens through the second half. Better model agreement on
the remaining trough sticking around into Fri night with the
Pacific storm track forced well south, but model consistency
compared to yesterday for the weekend is rather lacking. GFS,
Canadian, and even the GFS ensemble mean are now introducing some
strong upstream ridging over the western gulf Sat into Sun with
some of it propagating into the panhandle by early next week
preventing any weak short wave energy from bringing rain to the
southern panhandle late weekend. Meanwhile the ECMWF is hanging
on to yesterday's idea of a weaker upper trough lingering through
the same time period with some short wave energy bringing at least
a chance of precip for the south.

At lower levels, Wed continues to look windy and wet as Tue
night's front pulls through the area and precip switches to
frequent post frontal showers. At least one strong post frontal
wave will enhance the showers and allow them to persist into Thu.
That same wave will also keep winds somewhat high through Wed
evening (widespread gales for marine areas and strong wind gusts
for the southern panhandle and outer coast).

The development of an inverted trough over the panhandle Fri will
signal the end of most of the precipitation for the area as
offshore flow takes over. Significant breaks in the cloud cover
should also develop allowing daytime highs to warm up during that
time. Still can not completely rule out some precip for late
weekend for the southern half of the panhandle due to the abrupt
change in pattern displayed by the GFS and Canadian today while
the ECMWF remained consistent with yesterday. Thus left a chance
of precip for the late weekend period until extended models have a
better grip on what will happen.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-036.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.
&&

ABJ/TA/EAL

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