Storm Warning 22, NWS Juneau, AK

305 
FZAK52 PAJK 140029
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
329 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-141830-
329 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS A LOW PRESSURE
WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. 

$$

PKZ041-141830-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
329 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2017

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 70 
KT LATE. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-141830-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
329 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2017

...STORM WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING. 
GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 27 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL IN THE
EVENING. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-141830-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
329 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 28 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL IN THE
EVENING. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-141830-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
329 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 70 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL IN THE
EVENING. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-141830-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
329 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT INCREASING TO 75 KT LATE.
SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 65 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

056 
FZAK52 PAJK 141302
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
402 AM AKST TUE FEB 14 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-150715-
402 AM AKST TUE FEB 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS SE
AK AND WEAKEN SLOWLY TUE. A DEVELOPING LOW WILL MOVE N TO THE S
CENTRAL GULF TUE EVENING...THEN REACH THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AREA WED MORNING. 

$$

PKZ041-150715-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
402 AM AKST TUE FEB 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 65 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING. SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-150715-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
402 AM AKST TUE FEB 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 70 KT DECREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT. 
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-150715-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
402 AM AKST TUE FEB 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 70 KT DECREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT. 
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. 
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-150715-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
402 AM AKST TUE FEB 14 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 75 KT DECREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 29 FT 
SUBSIDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING
TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-150715-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
402 AM AKST TUE FEB 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 
TO 65 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. 
RAIN.
.WED..SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN 
BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN IN THE 
MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

729 
FZAK52 PAJK 142116 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1216 PM AKST TUE FEB 14 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-150130-
1216 PM AKST TUE FEB 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A DEVELOPING LOW WILL MOVE N TO THE S CENTRAL GULF TUE
EVENING...THEN REACH THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA WED MORNING. 

$$

PKZ041-150130-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1216 PM AKST TUE FEB 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45 
KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL.
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-150130-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1216 PM AKST TUE FEB 14 2017

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SW SWELL. 
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-150130-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1216 PM AKST TUE FEB 14 2017

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. 
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-150130-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1216 PM AKST TUE FEB 14 2017

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING
TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-150130-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1216 PM AKST TUE FEB 14 2017

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.REST OF TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. S SWELL. 
RAIN.
.WED..SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN 
BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN IN THE 
MORNING.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
335 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...Frontal boundary that produced heavy rain, high
winds and in some locations heavy snow pushed east of the region
this morning with residual showers through the day and lighter
winds. The reprieve from rain and winds will be short lived as
another gale force front tracks into the eastern AK gulf this
evening then crosses over the AK panhandle tonight. The parent low
will track just south of Kodiak Island by Monday afternoon with a
secondary warp brining more gale force winds to the gulf. 300 mb
SW jet still aimed at the panhandle with saturated mid level flow.
Main difference with this system is much warmer air at 850 mb
moving in which will produce a lower cloud deck and raise
temperatures and snow levels overnight and into Monday. Lowest
temps will most likely be early Sunday evening and continue to
warm through Monday. There is a quick moving pool of cold air
over Yakutat this evening which should produce a quick shot of 3
to 5 inches of snow before transitioning to all rain as flow
shifts to the southwest. The only other areas of concern for snow
is the Klondike highway which is expected to get upwards of 6 to
9 inches of snow tonight and into Monday before starting to mix
with rain. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for both
locations. For the rest of panhandle late Sunday and Monday will
bring another round of heavy rain at times.

Low level jet oriented more along the panhandle coast so max gales
will be limited to the eastern gulf with mostly max small crafts
over the inner channels as the front moves inland. gusts upwards
of 40 mph along the coast by Monday into Monday afternoon with
rest of the panhandle winds limited to the 15 to 25 mph range.

Models in fair agreement but some slight variation on timing of
the front. Limited any changes to inherited forecast with some
nudge to Hi-Res NAM for local winds and QPF for Monday. Higher
confidence in overall synoptic pattern but lower confidence in
details such as snow accumulation and extent of overland wind
gusts.

.LONG TERM...Protracted period of wet weather as multiple lows
and associated fronts track north over the central and eastern
gulf through mid week. Snow levels expected to remain high enough
that rain should be the predominant precip type everywhere except
at higher elevations along the highways and possibly in Hyder.
Precip will be heavy at times across the panhandle through at
least Tuesday night. Brief ridging, first at the surface beginning
Wednesday night, and then aloft aloft by Friday, will act to
disrupt this pattern somewhat, but a weak frontal feature will
climb over the upstream side of the ridge on Thursday and keep the
threat of precipitation in the forecast. QPF amounts expected to
be substantially lower by that time. However, models are
indicating cooler low level temperatures, so snow will become more
likely towards the end of the week.

Multiple front will keep gale force winds going over the eastern
gulf through at least Tuesday night. Post frontal northwesterlies
on Wednesday currently forecast to peak at 30 kts. Small craft and
gale force winds will keep seas over the gulf whipped up to 14
feet or higher. Max seas up to 25 ft will be early on in the
extended period - Monday night going into Tuesday. Winds on the
inside generally small craft intensity with some gales forecast
for Clarence Strait.

Updates to wind and pressure through mid week using a blend of the
Canadian NH and NAM12. Blended existing PoP and QPF through the
same time frame with 12Z Canadian. Temps nudged in the direction
of Ensemble GFS MOS to reflect expected falling temps in the
second half of the upcoming week. Overall forecast confidence is
average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ023-027.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST
     Monday for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for
     AKZ018.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ017.
     Strong Wind from 3 AM AKST Monday through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031>033-036-041>043-051>053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-034-035.
&&

PRB/Fritsch

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