Storm Warning 17, NWS Juneau, AK

516 
FZAK67 PAJK 140029
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
329 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-141830-
329 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS A LOW PRESSURE
WAVE MOVES N ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST. 

$$

PKZ310-141830-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
329 PM AKST MON FEB 13 2017

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 25 FT. 
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 23 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. S SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

799 
FZAK67 PAJK 141245
OFFAJK

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
345 AM AKST TUE FEB 14 2017

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR GULF OF ALASKA EAST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ398-150645-
345 AM AKST TUE FEB 14 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS SE
AK AND WEAKEN SLOWLY TUE. A DEVELOPING LOW WILL MOVE N TO THE S
CENTRAL GULF TUE EVENING...THEN REACH THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AREA WED MORNING. 

$$

PKZ310-150645-
GULF OF ALASKA NORTH OF 55 DEGREES NORTH AND EAST OF 144 DEGREES
WEST-
345 AM AKST TUE FEB 14 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT 
SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. S SWELL.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
16 FT. S SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
335 PM AKST Sun Feb 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...Frontal boundary that produced heavy rain, high
winds and in some locations heavy snow pushed east of the region
this morning with residual showers through the day and lighter
winds. The reprieve from rain and winds will be short lived as
another gale force front tracks into the eastern AK gulf this
evening then crosses over the AK panhandle tonight. The parent low
will track just south of Kodiak Island by Monday afternoon with a
secondary warp brining more gale force winds to the gulf. 300 mb
SW jet still aimed at the panhandle with saturated mid level flow.
Main difference with this system is much warmer air at 850 mb
moving in which will produce a lower cloud deck and raise
temperatures and snow levels overnight and into Monday. Lowest
temps will most likely be early Sunday evening and continue to
warm through Monday. There is a quick moving pool of cold air
over Yakutat this evening which should produce a quick shot of 3
to 5 inches of snow before transitioning to all rain as flow
shifts to the southwest. The only other areas of concern for snow
is the Klondike highway which is expected to get upwards of 6 to
9 inches of snow tonight and into Monday before starting to mix
with rain. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for both
locations. For the rest of panhandle late Sunday and Monday will
bring another round of heavy rain at times.

Low level jet oriented more along the panhandle coast so max gales
will be limited to the eastern gulf with mostly max small crafts
over the inner channels as the front moves inland. gusts upwards
of 40 mph along the coast by Monday into Monday afternoon with
rest of the panhandle winds limited to the 15 to 25 mph range.

Models in fair agreement but some slight variation on timing of
the front. Limited any changes to inherited forecast with some
nudge to Hi-Res NAM for local winds and QPF for Monday. Higher
confidence in overall synoptic pattern but lower confidence in
details such as snow accumulation and extent of overland wind
gusts.

.LONG TERM...Protracted period of wet weather as multiple lows
and associated fronts track north over the central and eastern
gulf through mid week. Snow levels expected to remain high enough
that rain should be the predominant precip type everywhere except
at higher elevations along the highways and possibly in Hyder.
Precip will be heavy at times across the panhandle through at
least Tuesday night. Brief ridging, first at the surface beginning
Wednesday night, and then aloft aloft by Friday, will act to
disrupt this pattern somewhat, but a weak frontal feature will
climb over the upstream side of the ridge on Thursday and keep the
threat of precipitation in the forecast. QPF amounts expected to
be substantially lower by that time. However, models are
indicating cooler low level temperatures, so snow will become more
likely towards the end of the week.

Multiple front will keep gale force winds going over the eastern
gulf through at least Tuesday night. Post frontal northwesterlies
on Wednesday currently forecast to peak at 30 kts. Small craft and
gale force winds will keep seas over the gulf whipped up to 14
feet or higher. Max seas up to 25 ft will be early on in the
extended period - Monday night going into Tuesday. Winds on the
inside generally small craft intensity with some gales forecast
for Clarence Strait.

Updates to wind and pressure through mid week using a blend of the
Canadian NH and NAM12. Blended existing PoP and QPF through the
same time frame with 12Z Canadian. Temps nudged in the direction
of Ensemble GFS MOS to reflect expected falling temps in the
second half of the upcoming week. Overall forecast confidence is
average.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Monday afternoon for AKZ023-027.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST
     Monday for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for
     AKZ018.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ017.
     Strong Wind from 3 AM AKST Monday through Monday afternoon for
     AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031>033-036-041>043-051>053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-034-035.
&&

PRB/Fritsch

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