Storm Warning 14, NWS Juneau, AK

879 
FZAK51 PAJK 281258
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
358 AM AKST SAT JAN 28 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-290345-
358 AM AKST SAT JAN 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF MAKING
LANDFALL JUST W OF YAKUTAT EARLY SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY.   

$$

PKZ011-290345-
GLACIER BAY-
358 AM AKST SAT JAN 28 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE MORNING, THEN 
DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN PORTION, N WIND 10
KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ012-290345-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
358 AM AKST SAT JAN 28 2017

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE MORNING, THEN 
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ013-290345-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
358 AM AKST SAT JAN 28 2017

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE
MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT 
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ021-290345-
ICY STRAIT-
358 AM AKST SAT JAN 28 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ022-290345-
CROSS SOUND-
358 AM AKST SAT JAN 28 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ031-290345-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
358 AM AKST SAT JAN 28 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING, 
THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ032-290345-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
358 AM AKST SAT JAN 28 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 55 KT EARLY IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS IN THE 
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ033-290345-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
358 AM AKST SAT JAN 28 2017

...GALE WARNING EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES, SEAS
16 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 3 FT...
EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ034-290345-
FREDERICK SOUND-
358 AM AKST SAT JAN 28 2017

...GALE WARNING EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS. RAIN SHOWERS LATE. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ035-290345-
SUMNER STRAIT-
358 AM AKST SAT JAN 28 2017

...GALE WARNING EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES, SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W LATE. SEAS 3 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT
NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ036-290345-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
358 AM AKST SAT JAN 28 2017

...GALE WARNING EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING,
THEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
607 AM AKST Fri Jan 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...winds are winding down across the Panhandle although
there may still be a few strong gusts around Juneau and the
eastern gulf coast this morning to 50 mph. The high winds for
Yakutat have yet to spike, but forecast looks good for gusts to 60
mph through 11 am. Southerlies will also accelerate through Lynn
Canal and into Skagway today. Winds relax into tonight and begin
to back to the north in response to the third significant system.
For more details on this system, see long-term.

Rain continues to fall over the northern third of the panhandle
with snow falling at white pass this morning...and cooler areas of
the Haines highway near the border. Heavier precipitation rates
early this morning near Hyder with lighter winds has changed over
to snow this morning with an few inches possible. A more showery
pattern this morning for the central and southern panhandle that
will transition back to a steady rain with next front moving north
friday night.

.LONG TERM...We made some changes for Friday night into Saturday,
stark changes regarding wind and a potentially storm force low.
We raised wind speeds dramatically across the central and
northern Panhandle as both 00Z GFS and 06Z voted with strong
agreement on a track taking Friday night/Saturday's system onshore
just north of Cross Sound. If true, this would be a very
impactful track with potentially strong southerlies and
southeasterlies followed by strong westerlies. However, the 00Z
ECMWF took a more traditional and orderly track to the northwest,
to make landfall near Yakutat. This would keep the strongest winds
offshore. We also raised wind speeds for the southern Panhandle
and the eastern gulf coast including Sitka in anticipation of this
system and with this posted a watch. Despite the fact that were
this to be a significant wind event, it could potentially begin as
early as this evening, confidence is still not high enough for a
warning. This mainly stems from timing differences between the
faster 06ZGFS/00ZEC and the slower 06ZNAM/00ZGFS. Winds themselves
will not persist as long as length of time the watches span.
Likewise, there will likely be windy conditions elsewhere across
Southeast, and Inner Channels look likely to reach strong gales
force winds with significant seas. There is much uncertainty over
this forecast and confidence is not high, as all depends on the
speed and track of this system.

Rainfall totals for mainly the southern half of the
panhandle with the incoming system Friday night into Saturday
looks be around 2 to 3 inches generally. Rivers and streams are
not expected to have any issues handling the amount of runoff
during the storm. Rain totals in the central and northern
panhandle are expected to not be as high. With the system moving
northward temperatures will be warm enough that rain for the rest
of the panhandle is expected as only White Pass should be cold
enough for more snow Saturday and Saturday night. This could be
potentially significant snow as well with 5 inches potentially
falling Saturday.

A pattern shift after this last low will lead to a less active
pattern as high pressure builds over the northern gulf and
Southeast Alaska headed into early part of next week. This will
yield much drier weather as well.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ023-024-026-028.
     High Wind Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for
     AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ017-027.
     Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ020>022-025.
     High Wind Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for
     AKZ023.
     Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for
     AKZ018.
     Strong Wind through this afternoon for AKZ018.
     High Wind Warning until 11 AM AKST this morning for AKZ017.
     Strong Wind from 11 AM this morning to 3 PM AKST this afternoon
     for AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ022-043-051.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-021-031>036-041-042-052-053.
&&

Bezenek/JWA

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1158 AM AKST FRI JAN 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG PELICAN                 57.95N 136.21W
01/27/2017                                      AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER IN PELICAN REPORTED TREES DOWN AND TIN
            BLOWN OFF THE ROOF OF THE FISH PROCESSING PLANT IN TOWN.
            ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH BETWEEN 4 AND 5 AM
            THIS MORNING

&&

DEL