Gale Warning 53, NWS Juneau, AK

407 
FZAK53 PAJK 290040
CWFYAK

MARINE FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
340 PM AKST SAT JAN 28 2017

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ053-291845-
YAKUTAT BAY-
340 PM AKST SAT JAN 28 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE EVENING, THEN
BECOMING LIGHT LATE. GUSTS TO 35 KT EARLY IN THE EVENING. SEAS 17
FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. EAST SIDE OF THE BAY, SEAS 5 FT IN THE 
EVENING THEN 2 FT OR LESS. S SWELL LATE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT SEAS 2 FT OR LESS EAST
SIDE OF THE BAY. S SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT SEAS 2 FT OR LESS
EAST SIDE OF THE BAY. S SWELL. 
.MON...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT SEAS 2 FT OR LESS EAST
SIDE OF THE BAY. S SWELL. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS
EAST SIDE OF THE BAY. S SWELL. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 PM AKST Fri Jan 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...Yet another storm force low will be moving through
the gulf tonight bringing more wind and rain to the area. This
low, currently around 50N 141W, will be following a similar track
to last night's storm but will be about 120 miles further east
eventually making landfall just west of Yakutat. Model guidance
with this system is not very great with low tracks ranging from
Icy Bay (12z ECMWF) to Cross Sound (Nam). The forecast reflects a
grouping of the GFS, 0z ECMWF, and the Canadian to a certain
extent and generally displays a faster northward progression (by
about 6 hours) over the previous forecast. As for strength, min
central pressure will not be as deep as last night's low but it
will still bottom out at 979 mb. The difference in strength is
mainly due to the left exit region of the 500 mb jet streak not
staying with the surface low as it heads north. Instead it splits
off to the NE late tonight resulting in a weaker system overall.

More high winds expected with frontal passage tonight across the
southern panhandle and outer coast. 850 mb winds are again
forecast to be around 75 to 80 kt across the southern panhandle
and outer coast. The slightly weaker system means high winds will
not be as wide spread as last night. I am still replacing the high
wind watches with warning for zones 23, 27, and 28. I am adding
zone 22 to the mix as well for the SW winds on the back side of
the low. The rest of the panhandle will see gales for marine
areas, and wind gusts from 40 to 55 mph for land areas tonight
into Saturday. The main uncertainly are the winds for Yakutat
tomorrow. The uncertainly of the low track means that depending on
where it goes Yakutat could get hit hard with winds or they could
get nothing at all (especially if the NAM track works out). With
the GFS and ECMWF track it looks like Yakutat will mainly get 40
to 50 mph gusts from the SW on the back side of the low tomorrow.

Of secondary concern is the precip which with all the southerly
flow will mainly be in the form of rain for all areas except the
higher elevations of the Haines and Klondike Highway. For the
Haines Highway, a light NW wind overnight will likely cool them
off enough for a mix and could see around 2 to 4 inches overnight.
The Klondike will also see snow with the possibility of 4 to 9
inches above 2000 feet through midday Saturday. Issued a winter
weather advisory for the Klondike as a result.

.LONG TERM...Quieter weather will be the rule for much of the
longer range as main storm track shifts well away from SE AK. A
weakening trof will move across the area Sat night, then high
pressure will build NE into the eastern gulf and SE AK Sun into
early next week. Looks like a lighter wind regime for Tue-Wed with
high pressure nearly overhead. Then it looks like a stronger high
will build to the N of the area and increase offshore flow during
late next week. Looks like next week will be cooler overall, with
the coldest airmass of the week likely late in the week. Used a
blend of the 12z GFS/ECMWF for Sat night into Mon evening, then
went with latest WPC for Mon night onward.

Trof moving through the area will bring some showers with it, and
colder air moving in will cause precip to transition to mainly
snow showers especially over the N by late Sat night. Does not
look like much snow will fall though.

As high pressure builds in for early next week, drier and cooler
weather will be the rule. Still might be a few showers along the
outer coast but those will diminish through Mon night. Next threat
for precip might develop toward late week as upper trof tries to
dig S into the gulf and interacts with southern stream energy
over the E Pacific, but models differ considerably on this so not
much confidence in any one model attm.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through Saturday morning for AKZ026.
     High Wind Warning until 3 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind from 3 AM AKST Saturday through Saturday morning for
     AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Saturday morning
     for AKZ024.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Saturday morning
     for AKZ020-021-025.
     High Wind Warning from 3 AM to noon AKST Saturday for AKZ022.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM AKST Saturday for
     AKZ022.
     Strong Wind Saturday afternoon for AKZ022.
     High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM AKST Saturday
     for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind Saturday morning for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     AKZ019.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon AKST
     Saturday for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     AKZ018.
     Strong Wind Saturday afternoon for AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ036-043.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-041-042-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ052-053.
&&

EAL/RWT

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