High Wind Watch 5, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
607 AM AKST Fri Jan 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...winds are winding down across the Panhandle although
there may still be a few strong gusts around Juneau and the
eastern gulf coast this morning to 50 mph. The high winds for
Yakutat have yet to spike, but forecast looks good for gusts to 60
mph through 11 am. Southerlies will also accelerate through Lynn
Canal and into Skagway today. Winds relax into tonight and begin
to back to the north in response to the third significant system.
For more details on this system, see long-term.

Rain continues to fall over the northern third of the panhandle
with snow falling at white pass this morning...and cooler areas of
the Haines highway near the border. Heavier precipitation rates
early this morning near Hyder with lighter winds has changed over
to snow this morning with an few inches possible. A more showery
pattern this morning for the central and southern panhandle that
will transition back to a steady rain with next front moving north
friday night.

.LONG TERM...We made some changes for Friday night into Saturday,
stark changes regarding wind and a potentially storm force low.
We raised wind speeds dramatically across the central and
northern Panhandle as both 00Z GFS and 06Z voted with strong
agreement on a track taking Friday night/Saturday's system onshore
just north of Cross Sound. If true, this would be a very
impactful track with potentially strong southerlies and
southeasterlies followed by strong westerlies. However, the 00Z
ECMWF took a more traditional and orderly track to the northwest,
to make landfall near Yakutat. This would keep the strongest winds
offshore. We also raised wind speeds for the southern Panhandle
and the eastern gulf coast including Sitka in anticipation of this
system and with this posted a watch. Despite the fact that were
this to be a significant wind event, it could potentially begin as
early as this evening, confidence is still not high enough for a
warning. This mainly stems from timing differences between the
faster 06ZGFS/00ZEC and the slower 06ZNAM/00ZGFS. Winds themselves
will not persist as long as length of time the watches span.
Likewise, there will likely be windy conditions elsewhere across
Southeast, and Inner Channels look likely to reach strong gales
force winds with significant seas. There is much uncertainty over
this forecast and confidence is not high, as all depends on the
speed and track of this system.

Rainfall totals for mainly the southern half of the
panhandle with the incoming system Friday night into Saturday
looks be around 2 to 3 inches generally. Rivers and streams are
not expected to have any issues handling the amount of runoff
during the storm. Rain totals in the central and northern
panhandle are expected to not be as high. With the system moving
northward temperatures will be warm enough that rain for the rest
of the panhandle is expected as only White Pass should be cold
enough for more snow Saturday and Saturday night. This could be
potentially significant snow as well with 5 inches potentially
falling Saturday.

A pattern shift after this last low will lead to a less active
pattern as high pressure builds over the northern gulf and
Southeast Alaska headed into early part of next week. This will
yield much drier weather as well.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ023-024-026-028.
     High Wind Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for
     AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ017-027.
     Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ020>022-025.
     High Wind Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for
     AKZ023.
     Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for
     AKZ018.
     Strong Wind through this afternoon for AKZ018.
     High Wind Warning until 11 AM AKST this morning for AKZ017.
     Strong Wind from 11 AM this morning to 3 PM AKST this afternoon
     for AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ022-043-051.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-021-031>036-041-042-052-053.
&&

Bezenek/JWA

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