Gale Warning 91, NWS Juneau, AK

401 
FZAK52 PAJK 020030
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
330 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-021830-
330 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VIRTUALLY STALL THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CANADIAN YUKON. 

$$

PKZ041-021830-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
330 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-021830-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
330 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. W SWELL IN THE EVENING. RAIN
AND SNOW IN THE EVENING. RAIN LATE. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN IN
THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-021830-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
330 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E IN THE EVENING, THEN 
INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. SNOW 
SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. SNOW AND RAIN LATE. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. OUT OF CROSS SOUND,
GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE
MORNING, THEN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN 
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 
13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-021830-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
330 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR 
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND 
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR 
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-021830-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
330 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING, THEN
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW LATE. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR 
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR 
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

312 
FZAK52 PAJK 020622 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
922 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-021500-
922 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VIRTUALLY STALL THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CANADIAN YUKON. 

$$

PKZ041-021500-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
922 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-021500-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
922 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. W SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW THEN RAIN
LATE. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN IN
THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. S SWELL. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-021500-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
922 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT LATE. GUSTS
TO 60 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT LATE. SNOW 
SHOWERS THEN SNOW AND RAIN LATE. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. OUT OF CROSS SOUND,
GUSTS TO 65 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE
MORNING, THEN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN 
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 
13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS
SOUND. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-021500-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
922 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE GALE TO 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR 
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND 
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR 
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-021500-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
922 PM AKST WED MAR 1 2017

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING LATE THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT OVERNIGHT, THEN 
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW LATE. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR 
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF INTERIOR 
PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 



$$

093 
FZAK52 PAJK 021253
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
353 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-030700-
353 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER WESTERN
CANADA. 

$$

PKZ041-030700-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
353 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 25 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS 
IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-030700-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
353 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 30 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS 
IN THE MORNING. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-030700-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
353 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...STORM WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 60 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 15
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-030700-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
353 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO
60 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-030700-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
353 AM AKST THU MAR 2 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SE SWELL. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SE SWELL. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
430 PM AKST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...The southern and portions of the central Panhandle are
witnessing perhaps their biggest snow event in three years with
widespread reports from partners, spotters, media, and social media
of 6 to 12 inches of snowfall for the area. We thank them immensely
for their reports. Meanwhile to the north, a sharper wave of low
pressure forming near Baranof Island induced stronger offshore winds
at most all levels through Juneau and Gustavus, which significantly
reduced accumulations to next to nothing. Confidence was always
lower in our region due to this possibility and the range of
solutions we were given.

A sharpening trough in the western Gulf will angle winds aloft and
through the mid levels to blow perpendicular to our coast into
tonight. And roughly across a polar front a zone of diffluence
will form tonight holding across the central Panhandle tonight
and lifting northward into early Wednesday morning. This zone will
sustain lift and spread significant snow potential northward.
Hence we extended winter storm warnings for Sitka, Petersburg,
Wrangell, and Pelican (although Pelican slightly lower
confidence). Also, based on snowfall reports and rates from
Hoonah, we upgraded the winter weather advisory to a warning.
However, see below why we have extended Hoonah into Wednesday
evening. This zone of diffluence has arguably been situated across
the southern Panhandle all day, so confidence is moderate to high
for this area tonight, although highest for Sitka itself.

Looking northward, this zone of lift will settle across the Icy
Strait corridor. This caused us to go ahead and place Gustavus and
Juneau in a winter storm warning from early Wednesday morning
into Wednesday evening, including Hoonah. Although, it should be
noted that Hoonah may experience periods of lighter snow before
they re-intensify tonight. All told, warned areas will see
another 6 to 10 inches. Warnings extend a little farther than the
point at which we currently think snowfall rates will fall, but we
hedge to cover any timing errors. Angoon, shadowed as they have
been from this system, we have reduced snow potential and issued
an advisory through 9 AM Wednesday morning. Hyder rates will also
decrease today.

Wind assoc with the low in the NE gulf will continue the gales out
of Cross Sound and over the gulf. Expect north winds through the
northern inner channels and southerly winds south of the low. On
Wednesday the low will weaken to a trough and shift to the W-NW.

.LONG TERM...Looking long range, we see heavy snow potential
continuing for much of the Panhandle with a changeover of rain
Wednesday night for the far south. Sitka could see another heavy
snow maker with a wave moving up the coast Wednesday
night/Thursday. This we must watch, but we elect to hold in the
back of our mind until Wednesday's event runs its course. Snow
amounts look to lighten Thursday night into Friday. But all models
are shifting this snow-maker upper low well to the southeast to
allow drying from the northwest. Thus, we have reduced chances of
snow for the long-range. Temperatures will cool in turn, and
really dip down in the mornings under partly cloudy skies and
boundless fresh snowcover. Model spread becomes an issue early
next week so we keep a chance of precipitation in the forecast.

For winds...the low center moving up from the south Wednesday
night will increase to gale force by the time it is off the coast
of Baranof Island. Used the 12z GFS and ECMWF to update the
position and strength of this low today. This increased the speeds
further to storm force 50kt early Thursday. Will need to watch for
potential need of high wind warnings for the central outer coast,
since the low center is so near. Have tempered speeds a little
below this level for now. The low looks to meander off the coast
of Sitka as it weakens through Thursday night then shift south on
Friday. As it does high pressure will increase in Canada and thus
northerly outflow winds will increase as well.

AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ023-026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ027.
     Winter Storm Warning until noon AKST today for AKZ024-027-028.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ024.
     Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Wednesday to midnight AKST
     Wednesday night for AKZ020-025.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight AKST Wednesday night for
     AKZ021-022.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ029.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-031-041>043-051>053.

DEL

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ023-026.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ027-029.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Wednesday for AKZ024.
     Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Wednesday to midnight AKST
     Wednesday night for AKZ020-025.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight AKST Wednesday night for
     AKZ021-022.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Wednesday morning
     for AKZ022.
     Strong Wind through Wednesday afternoon for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind through Wednesday afternoon for AKZ017.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ022.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-021-031-042-043-051-053.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-032-034>036-041-052.
&&

JWA/Ferrin

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