Gale Warning 68, NWS Juneau, AK

302 
FZAK52 PAJK 040030
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
330 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-041830-
330 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-041830-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
330 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-041830-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
330 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-041830-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
330 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-041830-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
330 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-041830-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
330 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

122 
FZAK52 PAJK 041228
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
328 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-050630-
328 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY.
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH SUNDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-050630-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
328 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS
TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-050630-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
328 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-050630-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
328 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-050630-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
328 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-050630-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
328 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 PM AKST Thu Feb 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...An inverted trough of low pressure along the inner
channels continues to strengthen as indicated by the Klawock
pressure continuing to fall 1mb every couple hours. Meanwhile
strong the high pressure in NW Canada is holding steady. Thus, the
northerly pressure gradient continues to be strong enough to
support 35-40kt winds through the northern inside waters with
higher gusts out of interior passes. This evening an upper level
trough with a strong jet core of north winds behind it will pass
across the area. Thinking continues to be that when the col of the
trough moves SE across the Coastal Mountains that a mountain wave
will set up. Therefore have continued with the high wind warning
for downtown Juneau with a peak expected tonight. Other places
will see an increase through this evening, but about 5kt lower
than previously forecasted for Lynn Canal.

As for POP and sky things are clear and dry. This along with the
gusty winds have play a big role in temperatures today. Anywhere
that had some wind today shot up into the upper 30s. This was
higher than expected yesterday, due to the cold air advection.
Adjusted temperatures for tomorrow based closer to what happened
today. For mins places with light wind will again bottom out at
least 10 degrees colder than their windy counterparts. With the
wind keeping temperatures up through the inner channels, the
threat of freezing spray is greatly reduced.

Most adjustments made today were for local effects and based on
current conditions. Forecast confidence is average.

.LONG TERM...Cold arctic outflow is still the main concern for
the the first part of the long range although its strength is
looking weaker. Current model runs are trending toward having the
upper trough that moves through in the short range set up further
south then what was suggested yesterday. This change shows more of
the outflow/offshore flow concentrated across the southern
panhandle then the northern panhandle for the weekend. Also not
as much cold air is forecast to intrude into the southern Yukon as
previous forecasts have suggested with the main core of cold air
staying farther north and east. The result is weaker outflow winds
forecast through the weekend with winds possibly lightning up
sooner then previously forecast.

The high Taku wind event is also in some jeopardy as with outflow
concentrated farther south, the cross barrier flow has weakened
for Fri night and Sat (50 to 60 kt at max compared to the 70 to 80
kt that were suggested earlier this week) in forecast models. The
critical level has also nearly disappear with little in the way
of speed or directional shear apparent in forecast models today.
Decided to keep the wind warning going as wind gusts will likely
still approach 60 mph particularly during the night time hours
when the inversion is at its strongest. However there still will
likely be periods of lower winds mostly during the day due to the
inversion breaking due to solar heating.

Farther out dry weather continues into at least mid next week with
offshore flow continuing. Long range models were suggesting a
rather moist front heading into the panhandle from the south for
late next week but they have now backed off on that with the
system staying south of the area. A weaker system from the NW
replaces it still bringing a chance of precip for the end of the
extended range. forecast confidence is rather poor past mid next
week. Used WPC for guidance.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning until 3 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind through Friday morning for AKZ022.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Friday afternoon
     for AKZ019.
     Strong Wind through Friday morning for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ043.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-021-022-031-032-034-035-041-042-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-033-036-053.
&&

Ferrin/EAL

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