Gale Warning 66, NWS Juneau, AK

299 
FZAK52 PAJK 031212
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
312 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-040615-
312 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NW CANADA THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE PANHANDLE AND GULF.  

$$

PKZ041-040615-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
312 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-040615-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
312 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-040615-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
312 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS
10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-040615-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
312 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-040615-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
312 AM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...LIGHT WINDS. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

302 
FZAK52 PAJK 040030
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
330 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-041830-
330 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH SATURDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-041830-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
330 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-041830-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
330 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-041830-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
330 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-041830-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
330 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-041830-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
330 PM AKST FRI FEB 3 2017

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

122 
FZAK52 PAJK 041228
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
328 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-050630-
328 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY.
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH SUNDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-050630-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
328 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS
TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-050630-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
328 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-050630-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
328 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-050630-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
328 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-050630-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
328 AM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING S. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

673 
FZAK52 PAJK 050015
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
315 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-051815-
315 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE ALCAN INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OUTFLOW
WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  

$$

PKZ041-051815-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
315 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-051815-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
315 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-051815-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
315 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-051815-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
315 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT THIS EVENING DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-051815-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
315 PM AKST SAT FEB 4 2017

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
532 AM AKST Thu Feb 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...Strong northerly outflow event will unfold across
Southeast Alaska through the next 24 hours. The dominant synoptic
feature will remain high pressure over the Alaska Interior and
Yukon. Expect small craft to gale force winds through the central
and northern inner channels by the end of the short term period.
Main change to the previous forecast was to speed up the
increasing northerly winds. Aside from local effect edits to
temperatures in windy/wind sheltered areas, changes were minimal.

Much consideration was given to how to proceed with the high wind
watch for downtown Juneau and Douglas. The potent upper level
shortwave progged to move over the panhandle later today which
will be key in aiding the development of a critical level is
likely tracking farther south and east than previous anticipated.
This would lead to favorable critical level conditions ending up
south of the Juneau. However, based upon the strength of the
cross barrier flow, significant cold air advection, and inversion
think there will still be gusts to 60 mph developing this morning
and continuing into early this weekend. Therefore, we decided to
upgrade the high wind watch to a warning. However, at this point
we would put this on the lower confidence end of warnings.

Used hi-res guidance for minor updates to the previous forecast.

.LONG TERM...Dry and cold weather pattern lasts until the end of
the long range period when blocking pattern finally breaks down
and surface waves begin to track into the eastern gulf. Potential
of an overrunning snow event with these system next week. Until
that time however the main weather impacts will be the strong
northerly and outflow winds. At mid levels high pressure remains
in place over the AK interior with short wave extending from
British Columbia into the SE gulf through early Sunday creating strong
outflow wind patter. By late Sunday into Monday a wave dropping
from the arctic southwestward over the AK interior will disrupt
this pattern. Flow shifts back to onshore as this low moves
toward the Aleutians and begins the return to a wet pattern for
the region.

At the surface, gradient between high pressure over Yukon/N
British Columbia and inverted trough extending from the eastern
Pacific keeping significant northernly winds over the inner
channels. Far northern inner channels getting highest winds with
sustained storm force. As the high shifts late Sunday to the
southeast gradient weakens and winds will begin to diminish. Cross
barrier flow remains high through Saturday and with good
inversion keeping the Taku high wind warning in place. Still
uncertainty with this event as the cross barrier winds remain at
a uniform speed and direction from 850 mb to almost 300 mb, thus
if a critical level is not induced early on the winds may be
limited to only outflow areas.

Used a blend of some NAM/High Res NAM early on then transitioned
to a GFS/ECMWF blend to day 3. Left rest of long range period as
is. Other than some minor changes to winds and some tweaks to
raise temperatures where stronger winds are expected left the
forecast as is. Forecast confidence is average even with stable
pattern due to uncertainty in mountain wave strength.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM AKST Saturday
     for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind through this afternoon for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ043.
     Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-021-022-031-042-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ032>035-041-053.
&&

TPS/PRB

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
228 PM AKST THU FEB 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
02/02/2017  M64.00 MPH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            PEAK WIND AT SOUTH DOUGLAS ISLAND PROFILER SURFACE WIND.

&&

JBYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
230 PM AKST THU FEB 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST JUNEAU                  58.30N 134.41W
02/02/2017  M63.00 MPH                          AK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            PEAK WIND AT SOUTH DOUGLAS ISLAND PROFILER SURFACE WIND.

&&

JBYRD