Gale Warning 154, NWS Juneau, AK

148 
FZAK52 PAJK 071152
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-080600-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE FRONT HAS BEGUN TO COME ASHORE FROM THE WEST. THE 
PARENT LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC 
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 

$$

PKZ041-080600-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. SW
SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-080600-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE MORNING THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-080600-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING THEN
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-080600-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-080600-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
352 AM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

225 
FZAK52 PAJK 072317
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
317 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEAS FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-081730-
317 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL PASS OVER THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY EVENING. THE PARENT LOW WILL SLOWLY  DRIFT EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE  WEEK
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS.  

$$

PKZ041-081730-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
317 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W IN THE EVENING, THEN
DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. W SWELL. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING N. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-081730-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
317 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 15 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN 
IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SW SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-081730-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
317 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN 
IN THE EVENING.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-081730-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
317 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. 
RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SW SWELL. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-081730-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
317 PM AKDT SUN MAY 7 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT. 
RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. S SWELL. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. S SWELL. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
256 PM AKDT Sat May 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...Challenging sky cover forecast yesterday and today.
Early this morning a marine layer of low clouds formed under a
ridge axis along the outer coast. Theses clouds have persisted,
but thinned some away from Sitka this afternoon. Remnant showers
from a low in B.C. have also occurred this afternoon over the far
SE corner of the panhandle. These will diminish through the
evening as the upper level and surface ridge of high pressure
shifts east over the panhandle late tonight. This will turn flow
SW to SE overnight as a front begins to approach from the SW.

Low pressure over the far SW gulf with a large occluded front
extending from it over the central gulf will approach the region
overnight. This will bring gale force winds to the outside waters
late night and Sunday. Expect the front to reach the outer coast
early Sunday morning, then move inland through the afternoon.
Gusty winds of around 35mph have been included during the
afternoon and evening as the front moves inland for POW Island and
the Ketchikan area.

The front will pass late Sunday night into Monday, but flow will
become SWLY onshore Monday. This will cause a transition from
widespread rain to showers, keeping majority of the day wet. The
parent low looks to track very slowly east along the Gulf of
Alaska and N. Pacific border through mid week.

Used mainly the 12z GFS and NAM for updates today. Overall this
increased wind speeds with the front some and increase the
likelihood of precipitation for tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...As of 10 PM Fri May 5...
Period begins with this weekend's front moving inland while the
parent low persists over the SW gulf. Model solutions indicate
another impulse rotating around the parent low with another front
impacting the region early next week. The parent low will slide S
and push towards the coast around 50N. Model solutions diverge
significantly on the track of the low beyond Wed, with solutions
ranging from an upper low progged over the E Bering, W gulf or SE
gulf. Given the easterly flow expected over the AOR little
impacts expected. The biggest chance for precip during the second
half of next week would likely be some convection moving WWD out
of BC. NAEFS suggests warm second half of the week with T 1-2
StdDev above normal in the low levels so expect some temps into
60s for most of the panhandle. Inherited forecast represented this
reasoning well with biggest changes being lowering PoP and
increasing temps late next week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-042-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-032-033-036-041.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

Ferrin/BC

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