Gale Warning 146, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
256 PM AKDT Sat May 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...Challenging sky cover forecast yesterday and today.
Early this morning a marine layer of low clouds formed under a
ridge axis along the outer coast. Theses clouds have persisted,
but thinned some away from Sitka this afternoon. Remnant showers
from a low in B.C. have also occurred this afternoon over the far
SE corner of the panhandle. These will diminish through the
evening as the upper level and surface ridge of high pressure
shifts east over the panhandle late tonight. This will turn flow
SW to SE overnight as a front begins to approach from the SW.

Low pressure over the far SW gulf with a large occluded front
extending from it over the central gulf will approach the region
overnight. This will bring gale force winds to the outside waters
late night and Sunday. Expect the front to reach the outer coast
early Sunday morning, then move inland through the afternoon.
Gusty winds of around 35mph have been included during the
afternoon and evening as the front moves inland for POW Island and
the Ketchikan area.

The front will pass late Sunday night into Monday, but flow will
become SWLY onshore Monday. This will cause a transition from
widespread rain to showers, keeping majority of the day wet. The
parent low looks to track very slowly east along the Gulf of
Alaska and N. Pacific border through mid week.

Used mainly the 12z GFS and NAM for updates today. Overall this
increased wind speeds with the front some and increase the
likelihood of precipitation for tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...As of 10 PM Fri May 5...
Period begins with this weekend's front moving inland while the
parent low persists over the SW gulf. Model solutions indicate
another impulse rotating around the parent low with another front
impacting the region early next week. The parent low will slide S
and push towards the coast around 50N. Model solutions diverge
significantly on the track of the low beyond Wed, with solutions
ranging from an upper low progged over the E Bering, W gulf or SE
gulf. Given the easterly flow expected over the AOR little
impacts expected. The biggest chance for precip during the second
half of next week would likely be some convection moving WWD out
of BC. NAEFS suggests warm second half of the week with T 1-2
StdDev above normal in the low levels so expect some temps into
60s for most of the panhandle. Inherited forecast represented this
reasoning well with biggest changes being lowering PoP and
increasing temps late next week.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-042-043-051-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-032-033-036-041.
     Small Craft Advisory due to Seas for PKZ053.

&&

Ferrin/BC

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